May 11, 1998  
This Date's Issues: 2173 • 2174 • 

7:50 AM 12/12/00Johnson's Russia List
#2174
11 May 1998
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson: 
1. Interfax: Shadow Economy Accounts For Half Of Russia's GDP - 
Newspaper.
2. RIA Novosti: BORIS YELTSIN WILL SPEND TOMORROW SETTING 
FORTH FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES.
3. Paul Goble (RFE/RL): Leaders Explore Generational Shift.
4. Argumenty i Fakty:Yeltsin's Security Services.
5. Leonid Dobrokhotov: Re: Yeltsin, Duma and Chicago Tribune.
6. The Sunday Times (UK): Matthew Campbell, Clinton to confront Yeltsin
over nuclear sales to Iran.
7. RIA Novosti: ECONOMICS MINISTER YAKOV URINSON DESCRIBES AS 
"FREE INTERPRETATION" REPORTS THAT CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR 
SERGEI DUBININ FORECAST FINANCIAL CRISIS AT THE LATEST GOVERNMENT 
MEETING.
8. Business Week: Joan Oleck, with Patricia Kranz, ADOPTIONS: FROM RUSSIA--
WITH RED TAPE.]

*********

#1
Shadow Economy Accounts For Half Of Russia's GDP - Newspaper 

MOSCOW, May 11 (Interfax) - A shadow economy accounts for about half of
Russia's gross domestic product, the Russian weekly Interfax-AiF said on
Monday citing unofficial reports by Russian law enforcement agencies and
foreign analysts. 

Illicit business is especially powerful in the manufacture and sale of
spirits, in trade in general and in the oil and service industries,
according to the newspaper. 

Interfax-AiF also cited a report by the Interstate Statistical Committee of
the Commonwealth of Independent States, which said shadow economics account
for about one-quarter of Russia's GDP. 

Official statistics say Russia's shadow economy last year accumulated 699
trillion unredenominated rubles, which means the national treasury missed
an income of 78 trillion rubles or $13 billion. 

Interfax-AiF argued, however, that the shadow economy "helps to keep civil
peace in Russia" by providing opportunities for extra earnings and creating
jobs. To paper suggested legalizing illicit businesses and for this purpose
taking measures to protect them from extortionists and bribers. 

In addition, more than one quarter of corporations registered with Russia's
tax authorities are failing to pay taxes. 

*********

#2
BORIS YELTSIN WILL SPEND TOMORROW SETTING FORTH FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES
MOSCOW, May 11, 1998 /from a RIA Novosti correspondent/ --
Russian President Boris Yeltsin will visit the Foreign Ministry
building on the Smolenskaya Square tomorrow. In the runup to the
Birmingham summit of eight industrial nations, the president is
expected to deliver a lengthy report on Russian foreign policy
and talk to members of the ministry collegium. 
Journalists were told earlier by the president's spokesman,
Sergei Yastrzhembsky, that the head of state and his team made
thorough preparations for the visit. A week ago Yeltsin
instructed Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and his deputy Boris
Nemtsov to brief him on the solution of social problems at the
Russian Foreign Ministry. In addition, the president instructed
Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev "to solve the issue of granting
deferment from military service to young specialists hired by
the Foreign Ministry upon graduation."

The foreign policy topic will also be continued by Yeltsin
through the Internet. RIA Novosti was told by Yastrzhembsky that
the president's first computer news conference will begin at
13:30 Moscow time and continue at least 40 minutes. It will be
mainly devoted to the forthcoming summit of the "Group of Eight"
industrial countries in Birmingham. It is foreseen that the
president will also reply to questions on the progress of
Russian reforms.
According to Yastrzhembsky, during the Internet session,
the president will be in the radio room at the Kremlin, where he
usually records his radio messages. Unlike radio messages, the
news conference will be held in "the real time mode."
Yastrzhembsky noted that the proposal for Yeltsin's
conference in the Internet was made by the president's press
service. "If the result of first experience proves conclusive,"
the news conferences will be continued, the spokesman stressed.

********

#3
Russia: Analysis From Washington -- Leaders Explore Generational Shift
By Paul Goble

Washington, 11 May 1998 (RFE/RL) -- Many post-Soviet states are now
confronting a problem that some of their leaders thought they could put off
or even avoid: how to transfer power from one generation to another in a
way that does not compromise stability, independence, and national
aspirations. 

Both the problem and the different ways national leaders are addressing it
has been thrown into high relief by two recent events: Russian President
Boris Yeltsin's renewal of his government last month and Azerbaijani
President Heidar Aliyev's 75th birthday celebrations yesterday.

In the Russian Federation, Yeltsin sacked his longtime prime minister
Viktor Chernomyrdin, a man of his own generation and hence longtime Soviet
experience. In his place, Yeltsin installed Sergei Kiriyenko, someone a
generation younger who has come of age in the post-Soviet world. And the
Russian president has advanced the careers of a number of other young
reformers.

Many in Russia and abroad have greeted this move. Not only does it suggest
that Yeltsin is prepared to push further and faster on reform than
Chernomyrdin had been doing, but it also allows a new group of officials to
gain the kinds of experience that will make them credible as candidates for
more senior positions, including eventually the one that Yeltsin now occupies.

But others in both places have been more skeptical. On the one hand,
Yeltsin is likely to have far more influence over Kiriyenko than he
sometimes had over Chernomyrdin. And because Yeltsin has proved so
changeable over time, his influence may push Kiriyenko's government in very
different directions than some now hope and others fear.
And on the other, Yeltsin's sacking of Chernomyrdin may have cleared the
way for Yeltsin to run for yet another term as president if his health
holds up. While in office, Chernomyrdin had gained the kind of experience
that made him plausible as a successor to Yeltsin. Kiriyenko does not yet
have that experience and consequently does not appear a likely candidate.


In that event, either Yeltsin runs again despite an apparent
constitutional prohibition against a third term or the candidates for the
office will likely have little or no experience in the post-Soviet Russian
central government, a situation that could adversely affect future
developments there.

In Azerbaijan, by contrast, Aliyev has not yet begun this process of
renewal of elites even though it is quite obvious that the issue of
transferring power to a younger group of leaders while maintaining the
stability and independence of his country is now very much on his mind.

But because of his age, Aliyev's failure to push this process further could
call into question the very achievements -- removing Russian troops from
his country, attracting sizable Western investment, and helping build the
economic and political bridge between Central Asia, Georgia, Ukraine and
the West -- he is most interested in guaranteeing.

Indeed, even as leaders from around the region and the world greeted him on
his 75th birthday, Aliyev appeared particularly unwilling to explore ways
in which he could renew his own regime and guarantee that his achievements
will survive their creator.

Last week, Aliyev proposed new legislation to regulate the presidential
elections to be held in October. Because of its restrictive provisions
which appear to give the incumbent -- Aliyev -- unfair advantages, five
leading members of the opposition issued a joint declaration that they
would refuse to run if the law was adopted.

Even more problematic than this declaration of the five, Azerbaijani police
dispersed a demonstration of some 4,000 people protesting this legislation
in Baku on Friday and arrested more than 100 of them. Among those taking
part and possibly among the arrested were former government officials and
opposition activists.

The lack of any bridge between Aliyev and these people or of a means of
including at least some of the social forces they represent in the
government suggests that the transition after Aliyev could be a very rocky
one.
Despite the steps he has taken, Yeltsin has not yet solved this problem.
Indeed, if he uses Kiriyenko's lack of experience to keep himself in
office, Yeltsin may exacerbate it. But Aliyev's approach up to now is a
reminder that failing to address this problem head on is not a solution but
rather a guarantee that the problem will become even larger. 

**********

#4
Russia: AiF Examines Yeltsin's Security Services 

Argumenty i Fakty, No. 19
May 1998
Article by Tatyana Netreba: "Boris Yeltsin has no bodyguards,
but he does have staff who like to repeat: `We do not guard his
body, we ensure the President's safety'."

Of course the big strong lads behind Boris Yeltsin and those further
away muttering softly into their hidden microphones "Come in number one,
this is number two" are obliged to shield the Russian president with their
bodies if there is an attack. But the task of the Presidential Security
Service [SBP] is to calculate and expose any threat, whether it comes from
behind a nearby flower pot of from some far-flung part of the globe.
When the President "goes out and about" not only is every twist and

turn on his route searched but people living in nearby houses are checked
out, for example, to see if there are any criminals or nutters among them. 
Furthermore it is recommended that the President does not stop and get out
of the car near houses or buildings where there are a lot of windows.

Who left after Korzhakov? [subhead]

Until recently, the President's "personal" photographer and cameraman
had service officers' passes. But it is said that they counted as "part of
the service" only nominally, had no special security skills and were not
obliged to shield the President in an attack or inform the leadership of
any danger unless their sense of civic duty prompted them to. After
Aleksandr Korzhakov left, these "personal staff" became part of the
President's press service. Yeltsin's former photographer was soon dismissed
after a scandal when he had a fight in the Kremlin with popular TV
presenter Sergey Dorenko with whom he had been marking Korzhakov's win in
elections in Tula. Photographs of the President taken by Dmitriy Sokolov
are often seen in the Western media nowadays.
It was said that after Korzhakov left, just about all those who served
under him resigned. In fact between 20 and 25 people left. Many who
considered themselves to be professionals in the field were personally
persuaded to stay by Yuriy Krapivin, the head of the Federal Bodyguard
Service [FBS]. (The SBP is now part of the FBS.) But some left because they
had reached pension age and others were afraid that Korzhakov's shadow
would catch up with them. These people were gladly employed as advisers
and analysts at major banking and information organizations and in the
Federal Security Service [FSB].
I have talked to some people who think that "Vasilich" [Korzhakov] was
"set up," primarily people like Valeriy Streletskiy, head of "P" department
which deals with government counterintelligence, who is now seen as his
ally. They say that, in fact, in February 1996 Korzhakov had prepared his
dismissal order. Those known here as the "magnificent six" were also
involved in the "set up." They all came to the Kremlin from the police and
the army. Bragging and boasting about how close they were to the General
[Korzhakov], the "six" pursued their own selfish ends. The Kremlin always
wanted rid of them. According to their former colleagues, these lads are
now driving about in flashy cars and throwing money about.
Many staff from the PSB, past and present, are still in touch with
their former boss. They met up last winter to celebrate his birthday. 
Officially, no one is persecuted in the Kremlin for being friendly with
Korzhakov. However, it is said that some staff are told off for being
unprofessional but they say that they are "for Korzhakov."

Shadow people [subhead]

Anatoliy Kuznetsov, the current head of the PSB, was previously first
adjutant to the President, in other words more or less the Number 2 in the
PSB. The President had another two adjutants, both of whom are still
working. Kuznetsov began his Kremlin service from basics and went up
through the ranks. He always had even relations with all staff and was

never too matey with anyone. Despite being close to the President,
Kuznetsov always kept out of his family and political affairs. He has
never had much to say for himself. He has never allowed himself "extra
perks" whereas many "in the service" have made the most of their position
to acquire another star or flat more quickly. It is thought that these
were the qualities that made the President choose him.
After the thousand or so PSB staff became part of the FBS, Yuriy
Krapivin became Anatoliy Kuznetsov's immediate boss. In practice they work
as equal partners.
Yuriy Krapivin began his work in the Kremlin as a rank and file member
of the commandant's office. At one time he was in charge of the Great
Kremlin Palace and first deputy to Mikhail Barsukov, then head of the main
bodyguard directorate. As head of the main bodyguard directorate, Barsukov
was seen as one of the country's most influential politicians. There are
politicians who have never even heard of Yuriy Krapivin. He has never
given an interview and has never figured in a single newspaper survey. 
However, Krapivin is one of the small number of civil servants with whom
the President is in constant contact. The President has cited his
invisibility as an example for other civil servants to follow.

Queens of the black belt [subhead]

One of the jobs of the FBS is to guard the President's family. The
officers in charge of guarding Naina Yeltsina have been with her since
1992. The Yeltsins' three grown up grandchildren have guards. Tatyana
Dyachenko [Yeltsin's daughter] has bodyguards not as the President's aide,
but as his daughter. Under Russian law, the President's family will cease
to have bodyguards immediately after his term as president ends. The
President will have bodyguards for life.
Just recently, Naina Yeltsina has been accompanied on her outings by
female bodyguards. The "women's unit" was set up in Barsukov's time. 
Basically they are used to guard the spouses of heads of state during
official visits to Russia. All the girls have training in the special
services. Many of them are karate black belts. One of them is an
explosives expert. Many journalists think its much harder to do a deal
with the female bodyguards than with their male colleagues.
Sometimes conflicts arise between journalists and security service
staff. The whole of the PSB knew one particular journalist who often had
rows with them and always said rude things about them for some reason. For
this he was once refused permission to travel with the President to Berlin.
How surprised they were when someone from the German security service
complained that a Russian journalist had said something rude to him. "How
did he get here?", cried the Russian officer. But it turned out that the
rude things were said by a different journalist who had thought the Germans
wouldn't know Russian well enough to understand. 

*********

#5
From: Leonid N. Dobrokhotov <NDobrokhot@aol.com>
Date: Mon, 11 May 
Subject: Re: Yeltsin, Duma and Chicago Tribune

In Russia today to read about both in the JRL and in major American
media. The reality is more worrying then all those publications and it
concerns both the Russian general public, "intelligentsia", working people
and ruling elites and makes the striking differences with traditionally
friendly Russian people's attitude to Americans during all Soviet era,
including the worst years of the Cold War. The detailed answer to the
natural question "why" supposed to be in focus of a special analyses. But
let me give you only two examples that may easily explain a lot.
1. Who are the "heros" and the best hope of Russia both for American
administration and the media today? Yeltsin, Chubais, Nemtsov, etc. Who
were those heros yesterday? Gorbachev, Stankevich, Sobchak, Kokh, and
another "reformers". Who are the evils for Americans in Russia today?
Zyuganov and another "hardliners, communists and nationalists". Who are the
evils for Americans in yesterday's Soviet Union? Lenin, Stalin, Brezhnev,
and another "reactionaries". 

Now let us see the results of one of latest public opinion poll by the
All-Russia Centre of Public Opinion Studies. Asked whom they considered
Russia's most outstanding social or political leader since 1917 October
Revolution, the majority named Vladimir Lenin as Number One and Josef
Stalin as Number Two. Russian present head of state President Boris Yeltsin
came 10th in the poll with two (!) percent of voters, far behind Yuri
Andropov and Leonid Brezhnev. There were in total 10 leaders of Russia
after October, 1917 up today (see: Reuters from Moscow, March 4, 1998). 
As you all do remember, Michail Gorbachev for all his 'outstanding
achievements in democratization' got perfect 0,5 percent of voters during
1996 presidential elections.
Now the new American "hero" supposed to be Kiriyenko and his teenaged
market crusaders team. In accordance to the same Centre's data, whole 17
percent of Russians believe that the new government led by Kirienko will
better cope with its duties (see: JRL # 2166, April, 1998).
Let us remind where are now Stankevich, Sobchak and Kokh ? The first and
the second are hiding from Russian justice in Poland and in France
accordingly for their criminal cases. If to speak about latest, in
accordance to Interfax on May 5, 1998, Alfred Kokh has been charged with
embezzlement by the Moscow prosecutor's office and if convicted could face
five to 10 years in prison. His mentor Anatoly Chubais in accordance to all
data is keeping the title of one of the most unpopular and hatred figure in
Russia of this century. What about his companion-in-arms Boris Nemtsov?
Let us ask his compatriots from "bastion of reforms" - city of Nizhny
Novgorod which residents supposed to be very proud of him: "But for many
Nizhny Novgorod residents, Nemtsov reforms did little to improve living
standards. "What reforms?" asked Stanislav Smirnov, news editor of the
local daily Nizhnegorodskaya Pravda. "People here don't get paid for months
on end. What do they have to be thankful to Nemtsov about?" (see: Boston
Globe, April 10, 1998). 
Now let us think about the main values that American are trying to
impose in Russia so frenzy and about the attitude to those values by
Russians themselves. 1. Deepening reform, strengthening private capital
positions - 8 percent; Continuation of the course of privatization,
transfer of land into private hands - 7 percent; closing non-profitable,
loss-operating enterprises - 8 percent. But what is the people's of Russia
attitude to "hardline", "communist", "reactionary-oriented, anti-reform
drive"? What about those anathemas for Americans as: Social orientation of
reform in the country (is supported by 31 percent of Russians); return to
state regulation of the economy - 25 percent; reviewing the results of
privatization of large state facilities - 20 percent; state support of base
sectors of the economy - 22 percent. 
What about the following nightmare for Americans as an idea of forming
the government of people's trust with participation of Communists and other
representatives of the opposition? 1. Responded positively - 45 percent of
Russians; 2. Negatively - 21 percent; 3. No opinion - 34 percent (see: The
All-Russian Centre of Public Opinion Studies, April 1998 -JRL # 2166).
And finally, what about Zyuganov? In accordance to the same All-Russian
Centre, if the presidential elections would be hold today the leader of the
Russian Communist Party would have the strongest support (about 23
percent). In accordance to Nezavisimaya Gazeta April's 1998 poll of 20 most
influential politicians of Russia, Zyuganov's standing grew from 13 to
fifth place (after Yeltsin, Kiriyenko, Luzhkov and Kriemlin's Chief of
Staff Yumashev) as a result of month long recent confrontation with the
President and the firm refusal of his party group at the Duma numbered with
182 deputies (with the exception of 7 party defectors) to endorse
Kirienko's candidacy. In this poll Chernomyrdin is ninth, Nemtsov - 19,
Zhirinovsky - 20. 

Just taking into account everything above it's easy to understand that
if to speak on basic Russian political, economic and social problems,
American and Russian approaches are diametrically opposed and as I know
with few exceptions, no real efforts were done from the American side to
understand and recognize those objective differences and giving Russians a
chance to run their own affairs independently in accordance with their own
specifics, traditions and mentality. 
The best (or worst?) example is the Chicago Tribune editorial called
'Now Yeltsin must take on the Duma' on May 9, 1998 (see: JRL # 2171) as the
clear manifestation of ignorance and arrogance toward Russia - the basic of
fallacious approach that undermine Russian-American relations, national and
international security, poisons the feelings of Russians on America badly.
The key word in the article is MUST. Russians MUST do the following (change
their tax code, turn farm land to private owners, etc). Who said this
'Russians MUST'? Politburo or it's former acting member comrade Yeltsin?
No, it was the Chicago Tribune Editorial Staff. But what will happen if
Russians will not do that? The answer is well known: IMF and World Bank
will stop their tranches to Russia and NATO will continue its expansion
closer to Russian borders (though it will do it in any case). I just want
JRL American readers to imagine for a minute what they would feel on Russia
and Russians if anything like 'America MUST do in it' your domestic burning
political issues (taxes, IRS reforms, abortions, what else?) would be
published in one of the leading and the most influential Russian newspaper
like the Chicago Tribune in the United States.
Now on the most outstanding part of the Editorial: "Yeltsin has one last
chance to force the Duma into line, and his success at getting Kirienko
approved suggests he could win this battle as well. In turning tail and
voting to confirm Kiriyenko after twice loudly rejecting his nomination,
Duma deputies exposed a dirty little secret: they are willing to do almost
anything to keep Yeltsin from dissolving the parliament and putting their
cushy jobs at risk. Now the president must use the same threat of
dissolution to line up legislative support for sweeping tax, legal and land
reform" (I have an idea for the next Chicago Tribune Editorial: let U.S.
Congress members go if they would not adopt Clinton's Anti-Smoking bill).
Coming back to Russia it has to be recognized with appreciation, that
for a past five years the American approach to this country has became more
human: in September, 1993 when Yeltsin illegally dissolved the Russian
parliament (later he recognized that had broken the law doing that) and the
deputies refused to leave the House, President of one leading American
school told me that the best next step for Yeltsin to follow would be just
smoke them out of the building by using tear-gas. Yeltsin then preferred
another formula: he fired them by tanks.
But if to speak about current Chicago Tribune order to Yeltsin, I don't
want to comment latest crisis between the president and the parliament
taking quotations from Zyuganov and another 'hardliners'. Let speak
Vladimir Ryzhkov, Duma's First Deputy Speaker from Our Home is Russia
pro-government party group (voted for Kiriyenko), in his young thirties the
reformatory icon for American media:
"... Question: It is generally believed that the State Duma was
humiliated and put on its knees when it was forced to approve Kiriyenko. Do
you agree?

Answer: No. For a whole month the State Duma conducted a dialogue on an
equal basis with the President, Kiriyenko and regional leaders. It was the
centre of political activity. I see no reason why anyone should say that
the Duma was weakened...
Question: What can stop Lebed (in previous paragraphs Ryzhkov described
this former general as a most formidable threat to Russia and the world
today - L.D.)
Answer: Paradoxical though it may sound, the survival of the party of
power and the regime as a whole depends on the enhancement of the role and
authority of the opposition. The regime must regard the opposition as an
indispensable element of the political system rather than an annoying
obstacle to reforms. In the final analyses, it must give it some powers and
Government posts. The President praises himself for "stepping over himself
and calling Zyuganov". Meanwhile, he must contact him as the leader of the
largest party and call him every day and meet him every week if he wants to
preserve peace and stability in this country".
To take above into consideration, the best that I may do for Chicago
Tribune and for better American image in Russia is just to pray that full
text of this Editorial would not be published in Russian on Nezavisimayia
Gazeta or Sovetskayia Rossia first page (by the way the latest Communist
Party mouthpiece is forth mass circulated paper in the country). 

********* 

#6
The Sunday Times (UK)
May 10 1998
[for personal use only]
Clinton to confront Yeltsin over nuclear sales to Iran 
by Matthew Campbell, Washington 
Finger of suspicion: Clinton and Yeltsin are divided by worries over 
nuclear weapons sales to Iran and Nato expansion in the east. The US 
also fears a germ warfare attack 

PRESIDENT Bill Clinton plans to confront Russia's Boris Yeltsin this 
week over indications that Moscow is about to sell nuclear weapons 
technology to Iran in violation of a pledge not to help the mullahs to 
build a bomb. 

America's worries about Russian intentions have been heightened by the 
planned visit of an Iranian delegation to Moscow this week to discuss 
nuclear co-operation. According to diplomatic sources, Clinton will 
raise the issue in a meeting with Yeltsin in Birmingham at the G8 summit 
of industrialised nations. 

Russia does not deny it is selling nuclear equipment to Iran - which has 
been energetically pursuing efforts to bolster its military capabilities 
- but insists that any goods or expertise sent from Moscow are for 
building civilian power plants rather than weapons of mass destruction. 

According to American intelligence officials, however, the Iranian 
delegation visiting Moscow has requested a demonstration of gas 
centrifuge technology. This is used for enriching uranium to a level 
necessary for making a bomb. Experts say such demonstrations are usually 
performed only before equipment is sold. 

Clinton secured a promise from Yeltsin at a previous summit in 1995 that 
Moscow would desist from helping Iran in its efforts to become a nuclear 
power. Before that, Yeltsin had given an assurance that he would halt a 
biological weapons programme, but this pledge also remains unfulfilled - 

another sore point which Clinton intends to raise with the Russian 
leader. 

The talks are part of an intensive six-day programme of international 
summitry that will take Clinton to Berlin, where he will deliver a 
speech about European-American co-operation into the next century; 
Birmingham, for the G8 meetings; and London, where European Union 
leaders will hold a separate summit with the American leader. 

Clinton and Hillary, his wife, will also take part in a policy seminar 
with Tony Blair and his advisers at Chequers, the prime minister's 
weekend retreat. The meeting, dubbed "Chequers III", is the latest in a 
series of transatlantic meetings between new Labour and "new Democrat" 
officials that began when Hillary Clinton held weekend policy debates 
with the Blairs late last year. 

The trip will provide a welcome break for Clinton from his woes at home. 
He suffered another setback last week when a judge ruled that close 
White House aides could not invoke "executive privilege" to shield 
themselves from interrogation by a grand jury investigating the 
so-called "Zippergate" affair, in which the president is accused of 
having sex with a White House trainee and lying about it under oath. 

An appearance on the stage of international summitry is an opportunity 
for Clinton to exhibit his credentials as an experienced world statesman 
after allegations about his allegedly irrepressible sexual urges that 
have so undermined the dignity of his second term in office. 

His meeting with Yeltsin follows talks between Sandy Berger, the 
president's national security adviser, and Russian officials, in which 
the threats posed by Iran's nuclear programme and the proliferation of 
biological weapons were raised. Clinton is said to be have become 
particularly alarmed about the danger of biological weapons finding 
their way into the wrong hands after reading a book about an outbreak of 
the deadly Ebola disease in Zaire. 

An even more infectious form of the virus is known to have been produced 
in Russian laboratories and may have been smuggled out by profiteering 
scientists to unsavoury regimes in the Third World. 

Clinton has recently ordered exercises to prepare emergency services in 
case the so-called "Ebola-pox" virus - a highly contagious combination 
of Ebola and smallpox - is used in a terrorist attack on America. 

America's anxieties about the equally disturbing threat that Iran may 
acquire nuclear weapons have intensified with Tehran's attempts to 
purchase missile technology from Russia. 

According to some experts, however, the chances of Russia co-operating 
with America on such issues have diminished following this month's 
Senate vote in favour of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joining 
the Nato western military alliance. Moscow has fiercely opposed Nato's 
expansion up to its doorstep. 

"If the US is going to pursue its interests on Nato regardless of what 
Russia says, there is no reason why Russia can't pursue its interests in 
the Middle East," said Dimitri Grenin, a respected Russian political 
analyst, describing the attitude in the Kremlin. 


The Iranian nuclear delegation, led by the head of the Atomic Energy 
Organisation of Iran, will hold talks with officials at Russia's atomic 
energy ministry, known as MinAtom, and the Kurchatov nuclear research 
centre in Moscow. 

It will also visit a power plant in St Petersburg which may be providing 
parts for a 1,000-megawatt light-water nuclear reactor being built in 
Iran under an $800m (£500m) contract signed with Russia three years ago. 

According to Russian officials, the Iranian delegation is keen to review 
safety procedures for the new reactor. The officials denied that any 
demonstration of technology was being planned for the visitors. But 
there is widespread scepticism about claims that Russia's deal with Iran 
is limited to building power plants. 

"It seems a little bizarre that a country with the oil resources of Iran 
should be interested in developing atomic energy," said Aleksei 
Yablokov, a former presidential adviser. "It's pretty obvious that the 
end aim is to manufacture nuclear weapons." 

Obtaining gas centrifuges, used to make weapons-grade fuel, would be a 
big step forward for Iran. The original Russian contract had provided 
for such equipment to be transferred there. Yeltsin said in 1995 that 
the contract contained equipment for "peaceful and military nuclear 
energy". But he added that after pressure from America "we have agreed 
to separate the two". 

He said nuclear technology with a potential dual use - including gas 
centrifuges - had been cut from the deal. American officials now fear 
the distinction is no longer observed. 

American concern increased recently when Robert Galluci, the Clinton 
administration's special envoy monitoring transfers of Russian missile 
technology, was handed a list of 10 Russian companies helping Iran to 
build its first nuclear bomb. 

The list was presented by Uzi Arad, an adviser to Benjamin Netanyahu, 
the Israeli Prime Minister. The Israelis estimate that Iran is only two 
years away from producing its first atomic bomb. 

"Iran's attempts to acquire nuclear weapons pose a terrible danger," 
said one American official. "All responsible members of the world 
community should co-operate to make sure those attempts fail." 

Additional reporting: Mark Franchetti, Moscow, and Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel 
Aviv 

********

#7
ECONOMICS MINISTER YAKOV URINSON DESCRIBES AS 
"FREE INTERPRETATION" REPORTS THAT CENTRAL BANK 
GOVERNOR SERGEI DUBININ FORECAST FINANCIAL CRISIS 
AT THE LATEST GOVERNMENT MEETING
MOSCOW, May 11, 1998 /from a RIA Novosti correspondent/ --
Russian Economics Minister Yakov Urinson expressed disagreement
with the way sections of mass media interpreted the speech by
Sergei Dubinin, head of the Central Bank, at the May 7
government meeting. According to Urinson, information that the
Central Bank head allegedly forecast "a financial-economic
crisis within the next two to three years" is wrong. Urinson
made this statement in an interview with the Ekho Moskvy radio
station. The minister said Dubinin's words and the agenda of the
government meeting were "interpreted too freely." 
In actual fact, Urinson explained, the meeting noted that

the Russian economic reform may be divided into three stages.
Russia has passed the first two stages, involving liberalization
of prices and termination of unjustified printing of money. It
now has to "give up offset settlements and other surrogates,"
the minister noted. "It was success in this area that was
discussed," he stressed. At the same time, Urinson added,
"failure to attain positive results will be a crisis." 
The public relations department of the Central Bank
announced on May 7 that Central Bank chief Sergei Dubinin
supported the three-year federal budget plan, proposed by the
Finance Ministry, at the government meeting. The plan contains
proposals to curtail the growth of the state debt, both foreign
and domestic. According to its recent statements, the Russian
government "is fully aware of the real danger of maintaining a
high deficit of the federal budget and a rise in the state
debt," the Central Bank's announcement pointed out. 
The bank stressed the need for financial measures which
will raise the revenue of federal and regional budgets; bring
the expenditure of budgets of all levels in line with revenues
while not leading to a growth of the budget deficit; replace
expensive borrowings to cover the deficit with cheaper
borrowings for a longer term. Since current borrowings on the
foreign market comply with these demands, they should be
maintained as the most profitable ones. Thus, the Central Bank
stressed, the debt crisis may be averted. 
"Tough measures of the Russian government with the aim of
increasing savings do not relate to 1998 only," Prime Minister
Sergei Kiriyenko said at a government meeting on Thursday.
Kiriyenko noted that the president's message to the Federal
Assembly sets forth two main economic restrictions: on the
budget deficit and the size of the state debt. "We have no other
way but to reduce the state debt," the prime minister stressed.
Kiriyenko agreed with Dubinin that the state debt problem "is as
dangerous as hyperinflation." The reduction in the state debt is
the national goal, the prime minister stated. Solving it is the
main responsibility of the cabinet before the president and the
population, Kiriyenko added. "The most pessimistic forecast" of
the situation was considered at the request of the Russian
president, the prime minister noted. Kiriyenko believes that the
pessimistic forecast "should be regarded as a basis, while
simultaneously looking for additional sources of revenue. In
this way, we will begin moving towards an optimistic variant."

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#8
Business Week
May 18, 1998
[for personal use only]
ADOPTIONS: FROM RUSSIA--WITH RED TAPE
By Joan Oleck, with Patricia Kranz 
EDITED BY AMY DUNKIN 

Family and home were alien concepts when Russian-born Alex came to live
with
his adoptive parents, Marla and Duncan Chisholm, of Midland, Tex., in March,
1997. Already in his five years of life, Alex had been ripped from his
neglectful birth family, then from two orphanages in Novorossiysk. But four
months after he arrived in the U.S., a light flickered on. ``You my mama and I
you little boy!'' he exclaimed one day to Marla. A short time later, on

returning from a family vacation, Alex wandered through the house,
methodically touching his toys, then broke into a smile. ``We came home!'' he
exulted. ``We went away, and we came home!'' The Chisholms knew the light was
on to stay.
Alex's happy outcome is more typical than recent media reports about former
Soviet bloc adoptions suggest. Stories have described emotionally damaged
children unable to bond with their new families, an Arizona couple accused of
abusing their adopted daughters on the flight home, and a Colorado mother who
beat to death her 3-year-old Russian son for misbehaving. Tragic as these
tales are, they hardly reflect the mostly happy linkings between Americans and
children of the former U.S.S.R.
Last year, U.S. citizens adopted 3,816 children from orphanages in Russia,
which now surpasses China as America's No.1 source of foreign adoptions.
Russia was followed by Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, and several former Soviet
republics. While some children from the region have displayed severe symptoms
of reactive attachment disorder--the heartbreaking failure to bond--most
problems are treatable. So are language delays and physical maladies common to
the orphans: malnutrition, rickets, parasites, and exposure to syphilis and
tuberculosis. ``I'm not trying to minimize the heartache some parents have
gone through,'' says Maureen Evans, director of the Joint Council on
International Children's Services, an adoption agency coalition in Cheverly,
Md. ``But the majority of adoptions have been extraordinarily successful.''
BACKLASH. Statistics bear her out. Take a recent survey by Cradle of Hope
Adoption Center in Silver Spring, Md., of 1,246 U.S. families who adopted from
the former U.S.S.R. Some 84% termed their children's adjustment very good, and
another 11% called it good.
Despite this high satisfaction level, parents considering an adoption from
the region must steel themselves for frustrating setbacks and delays 
Russia is a
huge, inefficient country where regional officials set their own rules. Slow
bureaucracy can hold up record processing and assignment of children for
months. And suspicions about the large sums of cash involved, plus wild rumors
such as one about Americans selling adopted babies' organs, have touched off a
backlash against foreigners. Says Irina Volodina, head of the Russian
Education Ministry's department for children's rights and social welfare: ``We
understand people need to pay money for translators, drivers, and lawyers. But
for the average Russian who reads the newspapers, it looks like people are
buying and selling babies.''
In Georgia, for instance, foreign adoptions dropped off sharply after First
Lady Nanuli Shevardnadze declared her opposition last year and pledged to find
homes locally for the orphans assigned to parents overseas. And Russia's Duma
is slated to vote May 13 on four bills imposing adoption restrictions. Waiting
times for foreign applicants could increase sharply from the current average
of 6 to 18 months. Despite these obstacles, Russian and U.S. officials don't
expect to see foreign adoptions end. U.S. ratification of the Hague

Convention, an international treaty establishing a central adoption authority
in each signing country, could reassure the Russians further.
If you want to adopt in Russia or Eastern Europe, expect to spend a total
of $11,000 to $25,000 on agency and document fees, drivers and translators,
and travel. Generally, you're eligible to adopt whether you're single or
married and if you're 25 to 55, with or without previous children. Russians
may ignore their own restrictions, such as an age ceiling of 42 for adopting
an infant. While you may bring home an infant as young as 7 months, most
children are 1 and up.
Your first step is choosing an agency. Groups like Adoptive Families of
America and the National Adoption Information Clearinghouse can help 
The Joint
Council offers an excellent resource, The Adoptive Parent Pre-paration System
($30, 301 322-1906.) Next, you'll compile a dossier that includes a Justice
Dept. fingerprint check, certified birth certificates, and a letter from the
U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service allowing you to bring a foreign
orphan into the U.S. You must also arrange a home study, in which a social
worker interviews you and writes a report on your motives, finances, and
general fitness to adopt. The document gathering process takes six months or
more.
Once your adoption agency receives your paperwork, you'll wait up to a year
for the magic call announcing: ``We have a child for you.'' Weeks or months
later, the agency gives you the go-ahead to board a plane to Moscow,
Bucharest, or another city to meet your ``facilitator.'' This is the person
who will escort you to meet with your child and cut through red tape.
At this stage, things can get shady. Adopting Americans often arrive with
thousands of dollars in cash, which the facilitators are believed to hand to
local bureaucrats processing everything from passports to adoption decrees.
You may be told not to ask questions and to bring gifts like jewelry. ``When
you have a country where people don't have enough food on the table, you know
perfectly well this system is going to work because of gifts,'' says Flicka
Van Praagh, international adoptions director at the Spence-Chapin agency in
New York.
COMPLICATIONS. The amount of time you spend in the country depends on the
vagaries of bureaucracy and your judge. Most Russian adoptions now require two
trips spaced a few weeks apart. And complications can arise--like suddenly
learning your child has adoptable siblings. With the adoption complete, you'll
head to Moscow for a mandatory medical exam for your child, plus visa
processing at the U.S. Embassy, before the trip home.
Once back in the U.S., excitement may give way to the grim realities of
post-orphanage health. ``Catch-up is the name of the game,'' says Dr. Jane
Aronson, a Mineola (N.Y.) pediatrician who reviews adoptees' medical records
and videos for U.S. agencies. Except for hepatitis B, HIV, and fetal alcohol
syndrome, most problems are reversible. Yet considering the orphans' origins,
you should expect some difficulties.
Attachment disorder prompts great fear. A child's lack of eye contact,

inability to be comforted, and indiscriminate affection toward strangers are
all signs. Yet Aronson estimates that fewer than 10% of the 300
internationally adopted children under 2 that she has seen have had attachment
problems. In children 5 and up, the figure has been 25%. Most respond well to
therapy.
Holly Richardson of Orem, Utah, should know. She and her husband, Greg,
have adopted five former Soviet bloc children, adding to their family of four
biological children and one U.S. adoptee. One adoptee died, at age 4, from
Down's syndrome. The other four have disabilities, from hepatitis B to missing
fingers and toes. Holly says Alina, 8, from Romania, and Mira, 10, from
Kazakhstan, had attachment issues. ``They hated to be held,'' she says. But
both have responded to treatment, and Holly says she has successfully used
bonding techniques, such as massage, on her two Russian toddlers--Roman, 22
months, and Kristiana, 19 months. Despite her kids' health problems, Holly has
no regrets. ``There has never been a time when we thought, `We wish we hadn't
done this.''' She plans to adopt more kids from the region--and soon.

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