January
9, 1998
This Date's Issues: 2008
•2009
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<x-rich>Johnson's Russia List (List Two)
#2010
9 January 1998
davidjohnson@erols.com
*********
United States Information Agency
Foreign Media Reaction Report
<center>08 January 1998
<bold><bigger><bigger>U.S. AND 'GREAT GAME': TWO RIVALS SCORE, ONE
TEAMMATE DISGRUNTLED
</bigger></bigger></bold></center>
The foreign media contended that, in the past few weeks, Iran and
China have dealt major setbacks to U.S. interests in the energy-rich
countries bordering the Caspian Sea. Observers judged that the Dec. 29
opening of a pipeline sending Turkmenistan's natural gas through Iran
signaled the failure of Washington's attempts to keep Tehran out of
the game in the region with the world's largest untapped oil and gas
resources. "Tehran," Rome's left-leaning, influential La Repubblica
concluded, "has found a back door onto the playing field from which
the U.S. would like to exclude it.... The big American companies are
no longer rulers of the oil game." New Delhi's centrist Hindu, in
turn, said that the deal on a pipeline linking Kazakhstan and China's
western province of Xinjiang and China's "snatching away some major
oil deals" from U.S. energy companies in Central Asia made evident
that Beijing plans to be a prominent player and "shape the future
balance of power in the region." In another worrisome development,
over the past two months some Azerbaijani commentators-- who in the
summer and fall could not contain their delight with the growing
closeness between Washington and Baku--questioned the value of
partnership with the U.S. in light of what they insist is the Clinton
administration's reluctance to push Congress to repeal legislation
they believe hurts Azerbaijan. Following are significant views on
Caspian Sea developments:
'IRAN RISING'--Analysts noted that, although the Turkemenistan-Iran
pipeline breaks Russia's century-old monopoly of energy delivery from
the CIS republics, it also provides a more efficient route than U.S.-
backed pipelines that would traverse Azerbaijan, Georgia and then
Ceyhan in Turkey. Official Tehran TV lost no time in trumpeting what
it said was the widespread perception that inauguration of its
pipeline was a "victory of the independent willpower of Iran and
Turkmenistan over the demands of great powers, especially America."
Iran's successful overture in the "Great Game" prompted speculation
among the majority of pundits that a change in the U.S. policy of
containing Tehran is in the offing, since, according to right-of-
center Frankfurter Allgemeine, Washington has no interest in seeing
"Iran's weight increasing" in the Caspian Sea region at the expense of
the U.S. Energy lobbies in the U.S., predicted independent Catholic De
Standaard of Brussels, will be pushing for "normalization of relations
with Tehran." They will argue, the daily added, that "it is better to
do business with Iran in order to get a hand in the largest part of
the Caspian resources."
BAKU SULKING--Passage this autumn of U.S. foreign appropriations bill
Section 907, with provisions denying some types of U.S. aid to Baku
and a measure that provides $12.5 in aid to the victims of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, stuck in the craws of several Azerbaijani
editorialists. The conviction among these writers was that Azerbaijan
has yet to see any economic or political benefits from its pro-U.S.
tilt and its willingness to sign energy deals with U.S. companies.
Relations with Russia and Iran remain "tense," they remarked, and
Azerbaijan's wishes to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute in its
favor have been dashed, just as they were in the days of Russian
patronage. They feared that even the projected
humanitarian U.S. aid to that enclave could lead to its being
recognized as "an independent state." In the words of opposition Yeni
Musavat, "U.S. policy toward Azerbaijan does not differ very much from
Russia's policy," since both fail to "recognize Armenia as an
aggressor state" in the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh. If Azerbaijan
wants to secure better treatment from Washington, the paper declared,
the parliament "must take a firm stand and adopt a resolution banning
participation of U.S. companies in oil contracts." Yerevan's official
Respublika Armenia was already convinced that Baku officials "speak
about the presence of multibillion-dollar reserves of oil" as a weapon
to persuade "the great and not so great powers" to side with
Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh.
RUSSIA RETREATING--Opinion-makers tended to portray Russia as the one
suffering the biggest loss in the rush by its former republics to find
alternative outlets for their wealth. In Moscow, the press' concern
over what one columnist described as the U.S.' "adding part of the
former Soviet Union to the sphere of America's vital interests"
focused on the undermining of Russia's influence along its vulnerable
southern flank. Reformist Izvestia warned that pipelines through
Turkey, for instance, would escalate the "drift of several post-Soviet
republics to Ankara, away from Moscow. That would only add to 'the bow
of instability,'" the paper held. A new daily, reformist Russkiy
Telegraf, admitted that "the time of easy contracts has come to an
end. Russia now has competitors.... It is obvious that in the
foreseeable future the CIS countries (with the exception of Belarus)
will no doubt distance themselves from Russia more and more."
Frankfurter Allgemeine was willing to declare Russia's sway over the
CIS already over: "The only reliable Russian ally in the region will
now be Armenia...and the more or less Bolshevist-ruled Belarus," it
pointed out. "It is time to declare the end of the CIS."
This survey is based on 45 reports from 14 countries, Nov. 14-Jan. 8.
EDITOR: Mildred Sola Neely
EUROPE
RUSSIA: "The Route For Azerbaijani Oil"
Moscow's reformist Russkiy Telegraf said (12/30) in a piece by Andrey
Ivanov: "The route to be taken by the bulk of Azerbaijani oil, revenue
from which may run into hundreds of millions of dollars a year, will
be determined in 1998. Furthermore, no investments are required of
Russia. However, the time of easy contracts has come to an end. Russia
now has competitors, and the Russian route's chances in this contest
are by no means 100-percent certain.... Foreign companies which are
extracting oil in the Caspian are also looking at the problem of the
choice of a route for the Azerbaijani oil from the viewpoint of
geopolitics. This primarily means the Americans, who will scarcely
agree to Russia controlling its delivery to world markets. That is why
they are prepared to fund the construction of a bypass pipeline. The
Central Asian states themselves have been using this approach
recently. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are also supporting
projects for a Turkish route for their oil exports. They are being
echoed by Georgia, since the implementation of this option promises to
bring it a big profit.... It is obvious that in the foreseeable future
the CIS countries (with the exception of Belarus) will no doubt
distance themselves from Russia more and more. It is extremely
important for Russia to realize this, because only then can the
appropriate measures be taken to defend national interests."
"Energy Rivalry Forces U.S. Into Cooperation With Iran"
Mekhman Gafarly stated in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (12/18):
"Western capital in the form of major European oil and gas companies
has taken the upper hand over Washington's political ambition. The
Americans have themselves gradually been easing sanctions against Iran
since last June's elections in that country.... Contrary to
Washington's striving for undivided control of the world's oil and gas
market, things have turned out differently, making it seek a full
contact with Iran."
"Business Is Business"
Reformist Izvestia (12/3) ran an article by Stanislav Kondrashov:
"Business is business. Adding part of the former Soviet Union to the
sphere of America's vital interests has been a shot in the arm for its
oil industry. If it has any luck in the Caspian region, U.S. business
will prod Washington to alter its policy for Iran so it can build an
oil pipeline via its territory.... For Russia a pipeline through
Turkey means not only financial losses but an escalated drift of
several post-Soviet republics to Ankara, away from Moscow. That would
only add to 'the bow of instability.''
"Ashgabat Unafraid Of Causing U.S. Anger"
Vladimir Mikhailov and Georgy Smolnikov wrote in centrist Nezavisimaya
Gazeta (12/6): "Obviously, Turkmenistan is glad to have Iran as a
strong and influential partner. On its part, Iran has actively been
using the northern neighbor as a foreign-trade window, one of very few
windows that have been open to it in a long time. Common economic and
political interests determine similarity in their positions on the
status of the Caspian Sea, the construction of oil and gas pipelines,
and a settlement of the Afghanistan crisis. Importantly, the Republic
of Turkmenistan, as a neutral country, is unafraid of causing the
displeasure of the powerful and influential United States."
"Nazarbayev Speaks With Turkish Accent"
Melor Sturua filed from Minneapolis for reformist Izvestia (11/20)
about the talks President Nazarbayev had with President Clinton and
Vice President Gore: "Washington wants the
Kazakh leader to participate in isolating Iran economically. Clinton
and Gore tried to persuade
their guest to accept their plan and start talking with a Turkish
accent. Nazarbayev insisted on Kazakh but somehow 'Turkish notes'
began sneaking into his speech, anyway."
TURKEY: "U.S. Debate On Iran And How It Affects Turkey"
Readers of liberal Cumhuriyet saw this by Ergun Balci (1/6): "The
debate on Iran in the United States is something in Turkey's interest.
There are a number of high level officials in the American
administration, including Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and
Stuart Eizenstat, who support the idea of abolishing the D'Amato Act.
They point to the fact that if the act is implemented, it will end up
with measures against France and Russia, and alienate the United
States from its Western allies. This debate is very much in Turkey's
interest, because if the D'Amato act is not implemented, Iran will
become a suitable route for pipelines, and that will make the Baku-
Ceyhan route less attractive. In that regard, the hardliners in
Washington are in fact working for Turkey's interests, too.
Washington's support for Baku-Ceyhan will continue until U.S.-Iran
relations tend to normalize."
ARMENIA: "Avoiding Oil Blackmail On The Part Of Baku"
This commentary by K. Topchyan ran in official Respublika
Armenia(12/27), "One should once again recall that there are at least
two main factors necessary for more or less normal transportation of
Caspian oil to the world market. The first is the existence of the
huge quantity of oil which high-ranking Baku politicians and experts
have been trumpeting about for years already. The recent fuss over the
Karabakh deposit, which turned out not to have a gram of oil in it,
should serve seriously to put on their guard all the countries and
companies which plan to invest millions and billions of dollars in
developing and transporting Azerbaijan's Caspian oil.
"One gets the impression that the longer the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict drags on, the louder Heydar Aliyev and his
team speak about the presence of multibillion reserves of oil. This is
not the first time that official Baku has tried to use this to curry
favor with the great and not so great powers over the question of
resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict according to the Azerbaijani
scenario. However, the recent sitting of the OSCE ministerial council
in Copenhagen showed quite clearly that the international community is
avoiding giving way to oil blackmail on the part of Baku. For the time
being, at any rate.... And the second main condition for the oil
transit routes is a final solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem,
which, as Azerbaijan cannot but understand, is not in the offing in
the near future."
"Settlement Acceptable To All Parties"
The Armenian press reflected the guarded optimism of the government
that a bullet had been dodged at the OSCE ministerial in Copenhagen
regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. The bottom line of comments in all
newspapers was that "Lisbon was not repeated." Official Respublika
Armenia (12/20) claimed that it was important that the principle of
consensus for adopting OSCE decisions was preserved at Copenhagen. The
article noted that no decision will be imposed on the Armenian side in
the future and that the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement will proceed in a
way "acceptable to all the parties."
"Conflict Must Be Solved With Nagorno-Karabakh's Participation"
Radical Molorak (12/20) explained in an editorial that the main
outcome of the Copenhagen meeting is that Armenia "made public its
official position that the conflict must be solved with Nagorno-
Karabakh's participation."
AZERBAIJAN: "Aid To N-K And U.S. Interference In Baku's Affairs"
Leading, independent weekly Ayna/Zerkalo (12/22) said in a piece on
U.S. policy toward Azerbaijan and FSA Section 907: "From the outset,
the American president has had the right to
call for the initiation of legislation which could lead to the
abolition of 907. The process is clearly enough set forth in the
American legislative system but President Clinton has yet to use these
powers. Instead, we have had listened to a number of American
officials issue statements calling for the abolition of 907 since the
conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has been regulated.... If we are to set
the record straight, then its not an accidental error (that 907 hasn't
been abolished) but has been maintained in order to carry out the
fundamentals of America's regional strategy. Over the past five years
(since 907 was passed), Baku has beem transformed into an American
lackey. With respect to oil contracts, their 'patron' has been given a
considerable share. Washington answers all of this by saying that it
promises to weaken 907's 'entanglements.' From the outset, in order to
clarify what seems to re an illogical policy, it is necessary to
attempt to clarify what the United States wants from the region and
how it thinks it can reach its objectives....
"However, did the United States really have the right to force
Azerbaijan to establish relations with a country which was occupying
20 percent of its territory? Finally, without Baku's consent,
regardless of what form it might take, aid to Nagorno-Karabakh can
only be considered an example of American interference in the internal
affairs of Azerbaijan and may destroy our country's peace.... Western
romantics have now been liberated from their dreams and will now begin
to weigh the positive and negative aspects of Western support."
"We Want To Believe This Won't Affect Our Bilateral Relations"
Independent sister weekly Ayna/Zerkalo (12/13) covered U.S. Ambassador
Stanley Escudero's press conference regarding 907, saying, "Mr.
Escudero clearly stated that it simply wasn't true that money was
going to be sent to Karabakh or distributed via any administrative
unit existing in Karabakh....
"It is necessary to note that with respect to the humanitarian aid,
non-governmental organizations will identify those who are most needy
and directly provide aid to these same people.... The possibility that
the congressional decision has been presented in a fashion that is
more advantageous to the Armenian side than it is cannot be excluded.
The mechanisms by which the aid will be realized may be organized in
such a fashion that it reaffirms Karabakh as an integral part of
Azerbaijan."
"Time To Say 'Enough Is Enough' To U.S."
Opposition Yeni Musavat front-paged this by Sahin Cafarij (12/2),
"Today, U.S. policy toward Azerbaijan does not differ very much from
Russia's policy.... One can go further and say that the two state's
policies toward Azerbaijan are complementing each other. This creates
a strange picture: In addition to failing to recognize Armenia as an
aggressor state, every sort of assistance is given to it, including
assistance from the countries represented by the OSCE Minsk group co-
chairs. Armenia gets arms from Russia and money from the United
States. Thus, instead of punishing the aggressor, they are rewarding
it....
"American companies have gotten special treatment in a series of oil
contracts which have been signed one after another.... It is time that
we say 'enough is enough' to the United States, which, while taking
the lion's share of our riches, turns around and punishes us.... The
Azerbaijani parliament must take a firm stand and adopt a resolution
banning participation of U.S. companies in oil contracts. Once this is
done, the U.S. administration will increase its efforts to convince
Congress to repeal Section 907."
"Are We Supposed To Be Satisfied?"
Oppositionist Azadliq (12/2), in a page-one article, said, "It is not
clear why we shouid accept the fact that, while Georgia receives $92.5
(million) and Armenia receives $87.5 (million), Azerbaijan itself
receives no direct assistance. Maybe we are supposed to be satisfied
with the
fact that, along with the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh
(referred to in the bill as 'the victims of the conflict,')
Azerbaijani refugees will also receive some aid."
"Too High A Price For 'Hollywood Smile?'"
Emin Kamiloglu penned this for independent sister newspapers
Ayna/Zerkalo (11/22), "Azerbaijan has done its best to enhance the
development of comprehensive relations with the United States.
However, the Clinton administration has not been able to--and might
not even have tried too hard to--help resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict or repeal the discriminatory amendment (Section 907).... In
the long run, it does not matter where the hostile attitude comes from
if the fact remains: While shaking hands with us, a smiling Uncle Sam
has been making motions in a contradictory fashion behind our backs. A
host of contracts on Caspian oil development have been signed.
Azerbaijan has practically put its future in America's hands. In
exchange, we have received numerous promises indicating enormous
prosperity. Meanwhile, Section 907 remains in force, direct assistance
will be given to Nagorno-Karabakh and our relationship with our
closest neighbors, Iran and Russia, continues to be tense. Many
people, including those in the Azerbaijani leadership, have started
seriously considering the possibility that too high a price has been
paid for the 'Hollywood smile.'"
"Questions With Respect To Azerbaijan's Territorial Integrity"
According to oppositionist Yeni Musavat's Esmia Namiqqizi (11/14),
"All the meetings and talks that Heydar Aliyev held with the senators
during his official visit to the United States last August failed to
result in a repeal or even moderation of this unfair amendment (FSA
Section 907).... If no pressure is applied, the American president's
position may not be favorable to Azerbaijan and subsequently, the
United States may eventually recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as an
independent state (by approving separate aid for it). The Armenian
lobby is carrying out this policy stage by stage, and is thereby
raising questions with respect to Azerbaijan's territorial integrity."
KAZAKHSTAN: "Reducing Tensions Around Important Hydrocarbon Source
Region"
Sultan Akimbekov told readers of Russian-language weekly Delovaya
Nedelya (12/19) that the Tehran meeting of the Organization of Islamic
Conference (OIC) member states led to "intensive bilateral
talks...aimed at promoting the settlement of many regional problems
and conflicts," including Afghanistan. The weekly went on to say, "One
can...note Turkmen-Azerbaijani agreements on the formation of a joint
commission for the settlement of a dispute between the two countries
over ownership of the Kapyaz and Serdar oil fields in the central part
of the Caspian Sea. A clear trend toward stabilization can be
considered the major characteristic of the Tehran summit. The major
idea in Tehran was to strive for reducing real tensions around the
important crude hydrocarbon resources in the Persian Gulf and Caspian
Sea basin.... Today this is in the interests of major Islamic states
and the United States."
KYRGYZTAN: "Why Uzbekistan Is U.S.' Main Partner In Central Asia"
Albert Bogdanov, international affairs columnist for government-owned
Slovo Kyrgyzstana (12/11), reviewed comments from Western sources
about U.S. interests in Central Asia and around the Caspian Sea. He
first referred to a VOA interview with a Heritage Foundation member
who stated, 'The United States is strategically interested, with a
view to the 21st century, in diversifying the sources of oil and gas
for the world economy. Caspian oil and Central Asian gas may become
that fuel, on which the economy of the 21st century will turn.''
Bogdanov commented, 'Many commentators consider this fact in
particular to have been the reason for the U.S.' steadfast attention
to the Central Asian region.... But the United States, according to
Pena, the U.S. secretary of energy, sincerely wants to assist the
economic prosperity of Central Asian people and in that way [to
assist] the stability and strengthening of democracy in this
region....
"If the stream of petro-dollars starts, it is far from a fact that
that money will reach ordinary people. This phenomenon is called 'the
Dutch disease.'... If this money doesn't improve the prosperity of the
population, the conflict between the poor underneath and the rich on
top will increase, and the stability of these countries, which the
United States is so interested in, could be shaken even more. That is
why the United States counts on those Central Asian states, where
there is more energy and other resources. And it is not by chance that
Uzbekistan has become Washington's main partner in Central Asia, while
most of the Central Asian republics are still moving towards Russia.
But the struggle for oil and gas between Russia and Washington has
already started. Hoping to get economic advantages, Uzbekistan is
moving away from Russia and drawing nearer to the West.... Russia sees
the growing American influence in Central Asia with suspicion,
guessing that Americans are trying to push Moscow out of its
traditional area of influence."
GERMANY: "Escaping From Russia's Influence"
Werner Adam said in an editorial in right-of-center Frankfurter
Allgemeine (1/7), "The community of heirs of the former Soviet Union
can no longer be saved. Russia as the core of the former empire must
see that the ex-Soviet republics are increasingly escaping from
Russian influence. The intention of the five CIS republics to
strengthen their independence by consolidating their economic
sovereignty and by getting access to the international raw material
markets must be a tough blow for Russia. At issue is an area that has
considerable natural gas and crude oil reserves, whose transportion
has so far been under Russian direction.... The only reliable Russian
ally in the region will now be Armenia...and the more or less
Bolshevist-ruled Belarus. It is time to declare the end of the CIS."
"Iran Rising"
Werner Adam wrote in an editorial in right-of-center Frankfurter
Allgemeine (1/2), "Iran is well on its way to increasing its
international weight and to take economic advantage of its
geostrategic position. This can be observed in particular in the
Caspian region which is rich in crude oil and natural gas
resources.... The fact that Tehran only recently succeeded in winning
Turkmenistan for the construction of a pipeline to Iran will be
considered disruptive in Moscow.... But Washington, too, will have
mixed feelings. As much as the United States tries to contain Russia's
hegemonic claim in Central Asia, as little can it be interested in
Iran's weight increasing in the region. But there are indications of a
cautious rapprochement between the United States and Iran since the
change of presidency in Tehran. One indication is that Washington has
tacitly taken note of an agreement that was concluded between Turkey,
Iran, and Turkmenistan and provides for the construction of another
pipeline by bypassing Russia."
"The Common Wish For Profits"
Jurgen Gottschlich dealt with U.S. approval of the construction of the
pipeline from Turkmenistan to Turkey in left-of-center Die
Tageszeitung of Berlin (12/30), "Two events have now resulted in the
fact that, after years of debates, a pipeline will now be build
between Turkmenistan and Turkey. First, the Turkish military pushed
Islamist Erbakan out of office, then the Iranians elected Mohammed
Khatami as their new president. Even before he took office, the
Americans announced that they would now permit the construction of the
pipeline across Iran. Erbakan's successor in Ankara, Mezut Yilmaz, is
now being supported by the United States with his policy in Central
Asia. For the frustrations which Yilmaz experienced with the West, he
is now being compensated for in the East. During his visit to
Washington and Turkmenistan, all participants again discussed a
pipeline to the Caspian Sea, but after all the United States approved
the contract with Shell.
"Although Washington said at the beginning that this approval would
not signal a profound change of its policy towards Iran, the U.S.
policy towards Asia is slowly changing.
"The common wish for profits made this possible."
"The Primakov Doctrine In Caucasus, Caspian Sea"
Werner Adam commented in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (12/4)
regarding the so-called Primakov doctrine: "According to it, Russia
wants good relations with the United States and the West in general,
but the Americans need to understand that in addition to themselves
there are other countries which have some influence and political
weight.... The cooling in Russian-American relations is not only due
to the Iraq crisis, but also because of the impetuous American
striving for influence on the development in the Caucasus and the
Caspian Sea. There are huge oil and gas fields that American
companies, with the open political support of their government, would
like to develop and exploit. But Russia, which until recently used to
have sole control of the energy resources of the Soviet republics,
views this as an American attempt to push Russia out of a lucrative
business."
BRITAIN: "Caspian Coup For Iran As Turkmen Pipeline Opens"
According to the independent Financial Times (12/30), "Iran scored a
foreign policy coup yesterday with the opening of the first natural
gas pipeline linking the Islamic republic with the vast resources of
the Caspian Sea region, via Turkmenistan. The opening of the $200
million development underscored the difficulties the United States is
experiencing in trying to prevent Iran from playing a big role in the
region, and in the growing international interest in developing some
of the world's last great oil and gas fields."
FRANCE: "In Central Asia, U.S. Playing A Major (Oil) Game"
Right-of-center weekly L'Express' Sylvaine Pasquier wrote (11/21), "In
Central Asia, the United States is playing a major (oil) game.... In
order to free itself from the Gulf, Washington is betting on Eurasia's
black gold, thus annoying Moscow.... The United States is aggressively
courting Central Asia's leaders, such as (Azerbaijan's) Aliyev, with
the risk of offending pro-Armenian lobbyists who are defending
Nagorno-Karabakh."
ITALY: "Changes In Ties With Iran And Caspian Wealth"
Anna di Lellio observed from New York in PDS (leading government
party) L'Unita (1/8): "Changes in (Iran's) relationship with the
United States would certainly bring economic benefits, since they
would lift the block on the billions of dollars the Iranians have
overseas and would also contribute to removing the American veto on
Russian cooperation with Iran and (aid) the exploitation of oil and
gas resources in the Caspian region."
"Turkey, Iran, U.S., Europe, And Central Asian Oil"
An editorial in provocative, classical liberal Il Foglio asserted
(12/31): "The Turkmenistan gas pipeline is a setback for the United
States, which aims at creating a pipeline that will deliver oil from
the huge reserves of the Caspian Sea to Turkish territory, bypassing
Iran.... And Europe's decision to exclude Turkey as a candidate for EU
membership has prompted a reaction by the Turks, the effects of which
are increasingly evident. After canceling a massive order of planes
from the European Airbus group to the advantage of the American
Boeing, Turkey is now linking itself with Iran, distancing itself
further from Europe. The consequences of the above are not the same
for everybody. Ankara's embrace of Iran allows the Germans to
strengthen their veto of Turkey, preventing additional immigration by
Turks to Germany. The Netherlands and France are also gaining
something. Last Sunday Turkey, along with Iran and Turkmenistan,
signed a contract with Royal Dutch Shell for a new gas pipeline
project. And the fact that Iran is emerging from the international
isolation to which Washington was trying to confine it, represents a
victory for French diplomacy."
"Iran's Hands On Caspian Sea's Black Gold"
Centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera commented (12/30):
"Yesterday Mohammad Khatami was radiant.... The Iranian president's
satisfaction probably came from knowing he bypassed two obstacles. An
anonymous source within his government said, 'We are showing that we
can nullify American sanctions and play an important role in Central
Asia.' This is a way of telling the United States that the Islamic
Republic of Iran also sits on the enormous resources of the Caspian
Sea.... There is the fear that sooner or later Russia will decide to
re-annex its southern periphery...or that the United States will
impose its law on producers or consumers.... The game of getting
Caspian Sea energy resources will determine Russian economic
development in the coming decades. Russia, the United States, Europe
and China know it. And Iran seems to be more and more the umpire of
this match."
"U.S. Oil Companies No Longer Rulers Of Great Game"
An editorial in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica concluded
(12/30): "The opening ceremony of part of the gas pipeline between
Iran and Turkmenistan is a significant event in international
politics, with major and particular impact on Tehran.... The United
States. does not want the tap to the Caspian Sea's resources to be in
the ayatollahs' hands...and up until now it has succeeded in keeping
Tehran out of the game by threatening economic retaliation. But this
boycott has holes and calls into question the hegemony that Washington
has tried to gain in the area.... In fact, Tehran has found a back
door onto the playing field from which the United States would like to
exclude it. European companies, mainly French ones, which are pushing
for an `Iranian opening' will have reason to rejoice today.... The big
American companies are no longer rulers of the oil game."
BELGIUM: "Better For U.S. To Do Business With Iran On Caspian"
Foreign affairs writer Freddy De Pauw observed in independent Catholic
De Standaard (1/3), "The new gas pipeline from Turkmenistan Nebit Dag
to an existing pipeline in Iran is not very impressive in itself: 200
kilometers (of pipeline) which carries natural gas from the Caspian
Sea to northern Iran. However, with the opening of that piece of
pipeline, Iran ended the year with extra energy and, above all, a
diplomatic success. Tehran thus defied the American 'Satan' and
'partner' Russia....
"That development strengthens the lobbies in Washington which insist
on the normalization of relations with Tehran.... Indeed, various U.S.
energy groups witness with regret how European competitors are eating
the cheese from their bread in the meanwhile. A glance at the map is
also sufficient for (Americans) to see that it is better to do
business with Iran in order to get a hand in the largest part of the
Caspian resources."
"Turkmeni Gas Defies Russia And U.S."
Pol Mathil observed in independent Le Soir (12/30), "Iran's President
Mohammad Khatami and Turkmeni Saparmourad Niazov inaugurated on Monday
a pipeline that will make it possible for Turkmenistan to export for
the first time its natural gas to Europe, via Iran.... This is of
course a commercial matter, but it could have obvious political
implications, in two respects. On one hand, it is the first time that
gas from the Caspian Sea region and from Central Asia leaves the
former Soviet territory without transiting through Russia. It is the
end of a monopoly inescapable for one century. On the other hand, this
is a new step undertaken by Iran to overcome the blockade which the
United States is trying to impose on it in several international
arenas. To sum up, this is a new phase in the large-scale operations
around the Caspian energy resources which today represent the only
credible alternative to the Middle East's oil dominance."
MIDDLE EAST
IRAN: "Victory Of Independent Willpower Of Iran And Turkmenistan"
Official, Persian-language Tehran TV declared (1/1) regarding the
pipeline project with Turkmenistan, "Many analysts, even in Western
countries, consider the most important message of this event to have
been the victory of the independent willpower of Iran and Turkmenistan
over the demands of great powers, especially America, since the
realization of the project to carry Turkmen gas to Iran and Europe
means disregarding the preferences of the American government, which
had recently declared that U.S. policy opposes the crossing of the oil
and gas pipelines through Iranian territory. In addition, this
development has also encouraged other Central Asian states such as
Kazakhstan, which could not decide whether to cooperate with Iran or
to follow America's lead. It seems that the geopolitical importance
and strategic location of Iran, as well as the necessities of the
world market and the interests of the nations of the region, and
finally the victory of reason over the illogical preferences of
American politicians, has paved the way for entering a new era of
regional relations."
"Facilitating Ashgabat's Link With Outside World Via Iran"
Tehran's official news agency, IRNA, reported that the English-
language Iran Daily's editorial said (12/30) regarding Khatami's two-
day trip to Ashgabat, "The undertakings of the 200-km Korpedzhe-Kord
Koy gas pipeline and the 715-km fiber-optic project are of great
significance for two neighboring countries.... The fiber-optic line
implemented by Iran is part of the giant China-Germany fiber-optic
grid and signifies a big revolution in Turkmenistan's
telecommunication industry. It will facilitate Ashgabat's link with
the outside world via the Islamic Republic of Iran. Meanwhile, the
flow of gas to Iran through Iranian-built pipeline symbolizes that
Ashgabat has succeeded in exporting its gas to other parts of the
world through a corridor other than Russia--a long cherished wish
after Turkmenistan attained its independence.
"It is also one way of demonstrating Turkmenistan's neutrality and
political independence... The decision to conduct a feasibility study
to build gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to Europe via Iran, was
announced soon after...Khatami arrived in his first foreign visit to
the Turkmen capital. Besides its short-term economic benefits,
implementation of major transnational projects will inter-link
interests of regional nations in the long run. This in turn will
thwart plots to disrupt good neighborly relations. President Khatami's
trip heralds brotherly ties between the two Muslim nations besides
strengthening the foundations for yet closer relationship based on
mutual trust and interest."
"Former USSR Republics Should Not Remain Hostages For U.S., Israel"
The English-language Iran News (12/6) held, "The republics of Central
Asia and Caucasus are facing special politico-economic situations and
they need active cooperation from the Organization of the Islamic
Conference [OIC].... This part of the world is rich in natural
resources and trained manpower. The world's largest lake, the Caspian
Sea, is a source of rivalry among international oil giants, especially
the United States.... The Central Asian and Caucasian republics have
two major problems. To begin with, they are all landlocked and so is
the Caspian Sea. They possess technological knowhow, albeit slightly
outdated, in several industrial fields. Thus the republics need a
short export route, and such an export route could only pass through
Iran.
"This is an area where the United States and Israel are creating
hurdles by exerting pressure on these republics to bypass Iran. A
recent example was provided during the visit of Kazakh President
Nursultan Nazarbayev to the United States last month when Vice
President Al Gore pressed Nazarbayev to ignore Iran as a possible
trade route. Fortunately, the republic's popularly elected president
Nazarbayev did not bow before Al Gore's pressure and declared he
would continue his talks with Iran on the $7 billion investment for
oil exploration and another $35 billion investment on crude oil
production projects to exploit an estimated eight billion barrels of
proven reserves. These republics possess natural gas, gold and other
mineral deposits which will eventually enable them to perform very
dynamic economic roles in the region. Top officials from the Central
Asian and Caucasian republics are now in Tehran and this would be a
golden opportunity to hold constructive negotiations on bilateral
cooperation as well as collaborations within the framework of OIC....
Central and Caucasian republics should not remain hostages in the
hands of Israel and the United States."
SOUTH ASIA
INDIA: "China Joins The Great Game"
An analysis in the centrist Hindu (1/2) by strategic affairs editor C.
Raja Mohan maintained: "Until recently a passive observer of the
Central Asian power play, China has now thrust itself onto the center
stage of the region's geopolitics. By snatching away some major oil
deals from American energy companies in Central Asia, China has
declared its determination to shape the future balance of power in the
region.... The sweeteners offered by Beijing could not be matched by
the U.S. oil companies, and these included the Chinese willingness to
put a lot of cash up front, an oil swap deal with Iran, and the last-
minute offer to build a 3,000 km long pipeline that will link
Kazakhstan and China's western province of Xinjiang....
"For China the new focus on the geopolitics of Central Asia is partly
driven by consensus about energy security.... Seeking to efficiently
manage its long-term energy imports, China has begun to look at
options for diversification of supply. Beijing is aiming to match its
production shortfalls with capacity developed abroad. China's national
oil company has invested, sometimes on its own and often in
collaboration with oil companies from other countries, in petroleum
projects across the world--in more than 20 countries including
Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and
Sudan....
"China's energy diplomacy in Central Asia follows its conscious effort
in recent years to defuse once tense borders with the former Soviet
republics, and promote military and economic confidence-building
measures. By pursuing economic interdependence with Central Asia
through mega-energy projects, China hopes to lessen its political
vulnerabilities on the Western frontiers and create a powerful
strategic role for itself at the heart of the Eurasian landmass."
PAKISTAN: "A Warning To U.S.?"
In the view of A.R. Siddiqi in the center-right Nation (12/24), "The
overwhelming compulsion behind the U.S. Asia-Pacific strategy (as
indeed elsewhere in the world) remains the defense of its own national
interests.... In April last, the two countries (China and Russia)
along with three Central Asian states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan, signed the so-called strategic partnership treaty. The
establishment of that state-to-state relationship, in the words of
President Jiang Zemin, constituted a 'positive contribution' to the
establishment of a new international border. The message given to the
West and the United States was loud and clear: Avoid any attempt to
isolate Moscow and Beijing from world affairs. The Asia-Pacific rim is
not the sole preserve and playground of the United States. Russia and
China also have their vital stakes in the region as Pacific powers.
The West and the United States would, therefore, have to be
particularly sensitive to Sino-Russian aspirations in the Asia-Pacific
region as well as South and Central Asia."
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC
CHINA: "U.S.: Early Bird Who Caught The Oil Worm"
Yin Shuguang wrote for the official, Communist Party People's
Daily(Renmin Ribao, 12/27), "With Eastern Europe as its starting
point, 'Uncle Sam' has crossed over the Caucasus mountains and the
Ural River and arrived at the outer Caucasus region and Central Asia.
This area is a traditional backyard of Russia, but has been claimed by
the United States as 'a region of immediate interests.'... In the oil
fight here, the United States is the early bird who has caught the
worm."
##
For more information, please contact:
U.S. Information Agency
Office of Public Liaison
Telephone: (202) 619-4355
1/8/98
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