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With Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's re-election to the presidency, the opposition has its work cut out for it. On Monday evening, in the first of undoubtedly many post-election protests, riot police swarmed Pushkin Square in central Moscow and arrested scores of protesters, including several top opposition leaders. Though the opposition claimed overstaying the allowed time on the square was a test of people's willpower, it seems to beg a larger question: what now?

As throngs of anti-government demonstrators streamed peacefully away from the square Monday evening, a handful of key opposition figures, including anti-corruption blogger Alexei Navalny, Left Front leader Sergei Udaltsov and Solidarity leader Ilya Yashin remained, encircled by about 1,000 determined demonstrators who formed a human chain around the activists. One by one, however, they were picked apart and hauled away by members of the notorious OMON riot police.

It was a gruesome scene, reminiscent of the spontaneous December 5 protest on the heels of that month's rigged parliamentary election, in which hundreds ­ among them journalists and opposition leaders ­ were manhandled and arrested while peacefully protesting. Yet that was only the beginning of the movement. Now, several months in the making, the protest wave has washed over Russia and opposition leaders and their supporters have had weeks to contemplate their future strategy.

And if Monday night was any sort of measurement of the protest spirit, it seems that some uncertainties linger. The mood at the demonstration seemed less than enthusiastic, but veered toward the outright, tangible anger many expected after Putin's allegedly fraud-tainted victory. However, out of a handful of participants asked whether they would heed opposition leaders' hypothetical calls for a "tent city" in the coming days, most answered with a measured "Yes," devoid of the palpable enthusiasm that is typically the cornerstone of such riskier and more consequential protests. One demonstrator, 28-year-old Ilya Khalitov, answered: "Sure, I'll come out to a tent city, as long as it's all peaceful ­ and if I get time off work."

From the stage, Navalny bellowed calls for sustained protests, though he also noted that change would not necessarily come instantly. "We will not get tired of coming out into the streets," he shouted. "We will not go away." Shortly after his release from police custody, Navalny claimed his fellow activists' attempt to occupy the square was a stunt meant to test protesters' collective will, which he said came off as a success.

Yet observers noted that in terms of street protests, the road ahead would likely pose considerable problems. According to Oleg Orlov, the head of the Memorial civil rights NGO, the days of peaceful and sanctioned protests might be coming to an end. "Everything depends on how brutally the authorities want to show who's the boss around here," he told Russia Profile on the sidelines of Monday's mass disorder. "It's quite possible that this will be how Putin chooses to respond to protests from now on, in order to show that his time has returned."

But what about political organization, the logical next step for an empowered opposition with serious grievances and apparent popular support? Perhaps the only one who directly addressed the issue was billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, who placed third in Sunday's presidential heat with about eight percent of the total vote, telling the crowd on Monday that he plans to start a new party free from Kremlin interference. Of six rally participants polled by Russia Profile about their candidate choice, four said they voted for him ­ though only, they said, because he was the lesser of the evils.

Indeed, the consensus among protesters seems to call for at least some organization. One demonstrator, 29-year-old Ivan, said he voted for Communist Party candidate Gennady Zyuganov, but only for lack of better options. "I don't support his program, or anyone else's for that matter, but I had to vote for someone so that my vote wouldn't go to Putin," he said. "It's very difficult to imagine the opposition getting together to form a single, workable platform, but if they did, then I would have someone to actually support."

But experts noted that the opposition may need not necessarily rush to consolidate itself politically. Yuri Korgunyuk, a political analyst at the INDEM Foundation, said the movement's main priority should be keeping up the public protest momentum, since any meaningful regional or federal elections are still far off. "If this movement reflects a strong, deep-seated feeling rather than a temporary emotional outbreak, then I think it's a force to be reckoned with on its own."

He continued: "This reminds me a little bit of Poland in the 1980s, after [communist General Wojciech] Jaruszelski came to power and ordered marshal law, ostensibly restoring order and bringing the anti-communist forces under control. But the general feeling in society at large never changed ­ it was anti-communist from the outset, and it continued like that until the government fell. It took them eight years, but I think it'll be quicker for us."

Keywords: Russia, Government, Politics - Russia News - Russia

 

With Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's re-election to the presidency, the opposition has its work cut out for it. On Monday evening, in the first of undoubtedly many post-election protests, riot police swarmed Pushkin Square in central Moscow and arrested scores of protesters, including several top opposition leaders. Though the opposition claimed overstaying the allowed time on the square was a test of people's willpower, it seems to beg a larger question: what now?

As throngs of anti-government demonstrators streamed peacefully away from the square Monday evening, a handful of key opposition figures, including anti-corruption blogger Alexei Navalny, Left Front leader Sergei Udaltsov and Solidarity leader Ilya Yashin remained, encircled by about 1,000 determined demonstrators who formed a human chain around the activists. One by one, however, they were picked apart and hauled away by members of the notorious OMON riot police.

It was a gruesome scene, reminiscent of the spontaneous December 5 protest on the heels of that month's rigged parliamentary election, in which hundreds ­ among them journalists and opposition leaders ­ were manhandled and arrested while peacefully protesting. Yet that was only the beginning of the movement. Now, several months in the making, the protest wave has washed over Russia and opposition leaders and their supporters have had weeks to contemplate their future strategy.

And if Monday night was any sort of measurement of the protest spirit, it seems that some uncertainties linger. The mood at the demonstration seemed less than enthusiastic, but veered toward the outright, tangible anger many expected after Putin's allegedly fraud-tainted victory. However, out of a handful of participants asked whether they would heed opposition leaders' hypothetical calls for a "tent city" in the coming days, most answered with a measured "Yes," devoid of the palpable enthusiasm that is typically the cornerstone of such riskier and more consequential protests. One demonstrator, 28-year-old Ilya Khalitov, answered: "Sure, I'll come out to a tent city, as long as it's all peaceful ­ and if I get time off work."

From the stage, Navalny bellowed calls for sustained protests, though he also noted that change would not necessarily come instantly. "We will not get tired of coming out into the streets," he shouted. "We will not go away." Shortly after his release from police custody, Navalny claimed his fellow activists' attempt to occupy the square was a stunt meant to test protesters' collective will, which he said came off as a success.

Yet observers noted that in terms of street protests, the road ahead would likely pose considerable problems. According to Oleg Orlov, the head of the Memorial civil rights NGO, the days of peaceful and sanctioned protests might be coming to an end. "Everything depends on how brutally the authorities want to show who's the boss around here," he told Russia Profile on the sidelines of Monday's mass disorder. "It's quite possible that this will be how Putin chooses to respond to protests from now on, in order to show that his time has returned."

But what about political organization, the logical next step for an empowered opposition with serious grievances and apparent popular support? Perhaps the only one who directly addressed the issue was billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, who placed third in Sunday's presidential heat with about eight percent of the total vote, telling the crowd on Monday that he plans to start a new party free from Kremlin interference. Of six rally participants polled by Russia Profile about their candidate choice, four said they voted for him ­ though only, they said, because he was the lesser of the evils.

Indeed, the consensus among protesters seems to call for at least some organization. One demonstrator, 29-year-old Ivan, said he voted for Communist Party candidate Gennady Zyuganov, but only for lack of better options. "I don't support his program, or anyone else's for that matter, but I had to vote for someone so that my vote wouldn't go to Putin," he said. "It's very difficult to imagine the opposition getting together to form a single, workable platform, but if they did, then I would have someone to actually support."

But experts noted that the opposition may need not necessarily rush to consolidate itself politically. Yuri Korgunyuk, a political analyst at the INDEM Foundation, said the movement's main priority should be keeping up the public protest momentum, since any meaningful regional or federal elections are still far off. "If this movement reflects a strong, deep-seated feeling rather than a temporary emotional outbreak, then I think it's a force to be reckoned with on its own."

He continued: "This reminds me a little bit of Poland in the 1980s, after [communist General Wojciech] Jaruszelski came to power and ordered marshal law, ostensibly restoring order and bringing the anti-communist forces under control. But the general feeling in society at large never changed ­ it was anti-communist from the outset, and it continued like that until the government fell. It took them eight years, but I think it'll be quicker for us."