MOSCOW. Dec 19 (Interfax) - New North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may start reforms but they will not be revolutionary, Moscow Carnegie Center expert Alexei Malashenko told Interfax on Monday. "Obviously, he may hold some tentative reforms. However, North Korea is almost the Soviet Union. As soon as any processes start, the entire structure may tumble down," he said.
"If North Koreans are given cell phones, they will get an access to information and the 'meltdown' will begin," he said.
"Everything depends on Kim Jong Un, his nature and psychology, as it always happens in the case of such regimes. Will he be a new Gorbachev or someone else?" he wondered, adding that it would be premature to make any presumptions.
"The North Korean regime resembles a well inflated balloon. Yet a small hole will blast it. Especially as South Korea is nearby. They may start running over the border and the army will be disoriented," he said.
"When Kim Jong Il took the office, they said (democratization) would begin, as he loved ballet and wore glasses," he said. On the other hand, Kim Jong Un is a new generation. "I do not think he is totally ignorant. The times have changed," he said.
Kim Jong Il, 69, died of an extensive infarction on December 17 but his death was reported only on Monday. He was the head of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Secretary General of the Workers Party, the Supreme Commander of the Korean Armed Forces and the Chairman of the State Defense Committee.
His third son, Kim Jong Un, was declared the heir.
MOSCOW. Dec 19 (Interfax) - New North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may start reforms but they will not be revolutionary, Moscow Carnegie Center expert Alexei Malashenko told Interfax on Monday.
"Obviously, he may hold some tentative reforms. However, North Korea is almost the Soviet Union. As soon as any processes start, the entire structure may tumble down," he said.
"If North Koreans are given cell phones, they will get an access to information and the 'meltdown' will begin," he said.
"Everything depends on Kim Jong Un, his nature and psychology, as it always happens in the case of such regimes. Will he be a new Gorbachev or someone else?" he wondered, adding that it would be premature to make any presumptions.
"The North Korean regime resembles a well inflated balloon. Yet a small hole will blast it. Especially as South Korea is nearby. They may start running over the border and the army will be disoriented," he said.
"When Kim Jong Il took the office, they said (democratization) would begin, as he loved ballet and wore glasses," he said. On the other hand, Kim Jong Un is a new generation. "I do not think he is totally ignorant. The times have changed," he said.
Kim Jong Il, 69, died of an extensive infarction on December 17 but his death was reported only on Monday. He was the head of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Secretary General of the Workers Party, the Supreme Commander of the Korean Armed Forces and the Chairman of the State Defense Committee.
His third son, Kim Jong Un, was declared the heir.