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Capital flight surge continues
Natasha Doff - Moscow News - themoscownews.com - 2.21.12 - JRL 2012-32

Capital continued to flow out of Russia at the beginning of this year, reaching $11 billion in January, the Central Bank's deputy chairman said Tuesday.

Cash, Coins, Line Graph"We estimate January capital flight at $11 billion," Alexei Ulyukayev told Vedomosti. "If you study all of the figures for November, December and January, they are all very close. There has not been much change."

On Monday Andrei Klepach, deputy minister for economic development, estimated the figure at $17 billion.

Some $37.8 billion left Russia in the fourth quarter of 2011 as the European sovereign debt crisis and a rash of election protest rallies in Moscow sparked uncertainty over Russia's economic stability.

Ulyukayev's figure marks a drop on the $14 billion that left Russia in December, the month that Russia's perceived political instability reached its peak, but is still higher than the 2011 monthly average.

The Central Bank deputy chief said earlier this month that he did not expect January's outflow figures to be high.

Commenting on Klepach's figure earlier on Tuesday, analysts said that the twin factors of a strengthening ruble and rising equity markets support capital inflows rather than flight. They said the continued high outflow implies that political risk is still playing a dominant role in Russia's investment case.

"This sizeable capital outflow implies that the improvement of global market sentiment is being offset by the high level of nervousness surrounding Russia," Alfa Bank said in a note to investors Tuesday. "Although we still expect the February capital account to show improvement, following January's statistics it is quite unlikely that it will cross into positive territory."

Both Alfa and other banks disputed Klepach's figure. Citibank estimated the real figure to be about $10 billion to $12 billion.

"The month overall [January] was uneven. We saw major outflow in the beginning of the month, but given that the ruble was appreciating at the end of the month, there was some reversal of the trend," Citibank economist Natalia Novikova told The Moscow News. "Political risk was very crucial in December, but now I think people are getting used to it."

Keywords: Russia, Economy, Finance - Russia News - Russia

 

Capital continued to flow out of Russia at the beginning of this year, reaching $11 billion in January, the Central Bank's deputy chairman said Tuesday.

Cash, Coins, Line Graph"We estimate January capital flight at $11 billion," Alexei Ulyukayev told Vedomosti. "If you study all of the figures for November, December and January, they are all very close. There has not been much change."

On Monday Andrei Klepach, deputy minister for economic development, estimated the figure at $17 billion.

Some $37.8 billion left Russia in the fourth quarter of 2011 as the European sovereign debt crisis and a rash of election protest rallies in Moscow sparked uncertainty over Russia's economic stability.

Ulyukayev's figure marks a drop on the $14 billion that left Russia in December, the month that Russia's perceived political instability reached its peak, but is still higher than the 2011 monthly average.

The Central Bank deputy chief said earlier this month that he did not expect January's outflow figures to be high.

Commenting on Klepach's figure earlier on Tuesday, analysts said that the twin factors of a strengthening ruble and rising equity markets support capital inflows rather than flight. They said the continued high outflow implies that political risk is still playing a dominant role in Russia's investment case.

"This sizeable capital outflow implies that the improvement of global market sentiment is being offset by the high level of nervousness surrounding Russia," Alfa Bank said in a note to investors Tuesday. "Although we still expect the February capital account to show improvement, following January's statistics it is quite unlikely that it will cross into positive territory."

Both Alfa and other banks disputed Klepach's figure. Citibank estimated the real figure to be about $10 billion to $12 billion.

"The month overall [January] was uneven. We saw major outflow in the beginning of the month, but given that the ruble was appreciating at the end of the month, there was some reversal of the trend," Citibank economist Natalia Novikova told The Moscow News. "Political risk was very crucial in December, but now I think people are getting used to it."