Moscow Times
November 15, 2005
Medvedev, Ivanov Promoted in Shake-Up
By Oksana Yablokova
Staff Writer
President Vladimir Putin on Monday promoted his chief of staff, Dmitry Medvedev, to first deputy prime minister as part of a government shake-up that signals he may be grooming a possible successor for 2008.
Putin also boosted Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov's role in the Cabinet, appointing him a deputy prime minister with responsibility for the security agencies. The promotions were seen by some as a way of balancing the ambitions of rival factions within the Kremlin.
Putin also dismissed two of his longest-serving federal envoys, former Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko in the Volga Federal District and Konstantin Pulikovsky in the Far East Federal District.
Putin announced the changes at a Cabinet meeting on Monday, where he also discussed the work of a committee he set up to implement health care, housing, education and agriculture projects worth $4 billion.
Medvedev, who is also chairman of Gazprom, is first deputy chairman of the 41-member committee, which is chaired by Putin.
"I was also saying that the bulk of the committee's job must be centered at the government of the Russian Federation. That is why ... Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev is moving to work at the government ... as first deputy prime minister," Putin said, according to an account of the meeting posted on the Kremlin web site.
Putin appointed Tyumen Governor Sergei Sobyanin, a Kremlin loyalist, as his new chief of staff.
Putin said that Ivanov's promotion was aimed at improving Russia's armed forces, and that it followed a meeting he attended at the Defense Ministry last week. Participants there expressed concern over problems the ministry had been having in realizing its future development plans, Putin said.
"These problems are linked to a lack of coordination among ministries and agencies," Putin said, adding that Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov had proposed Ivanov as a deputy prime minister.
Both Medvedev and Ivanov have been seen as potential presidential candidates in 2008, when Putin is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.
Speculation has been rife in recent months that Putin would give both men higher-profile roles.
Talk of Medvedev as Putin's preferred successor increased after the president picked him as his deputy on the committee, a job that could significantly raise Medvedev's public profile.
While well-known in political circles, Medvedev is largely unknown to the public.
Alexei Makarkin, an analyst with the Center for Political Technologies, said that by promoting Medvedev and Ivanov to top Cabinet posts, Putin was testing them as possible presidential candidates.
"Medvedev is potentially the main candidate, and Ivanov is a backup in case something goes wrong, given that there is a lot of time ahead," Makarkin said.
Lilia Shevtsova, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center, said Putin had begun the slow, gradual and legitimate process of grooming a successor.
"Those who are being groomed as possible successors must serve in the top Cabinet posts. Putin has chosen a slow but smart way to do it," Shevtsova said.
Shevtsova also said that the promotions were a way for Putin to end speculation that he might try to stay in power beyond 2008.
"He is sending everyone a message," Shevtsova said. "He's saying: 'I'm leaving, and I'm starting the process of legitimately choosing a successor.'"
Makarkin said that Sobyanin would be tasked with preparing governors and regional elites to support a Medvedev presidency.
Medvedev, 40, graduated from St. Petersburg University's law faculty 12 years after Putin and has been a close associate of Putin's since both worked in the St. Petersburg mayor's office in the early 1990s.
He was one of several St. Petersburgers who came to Moscow in Putin's wake, first working as deputy head of the Cabinet administration when Putin was prime minister, then moving to become a deputy to Kremlin chief of staff Alexander Voloshin. When Voloshin resigned in 2003, Medvedev was appointed in his place.
Vladimir Pribylovsky, head of the Panorama think tank, said the shake-up was likely a ploy to obscure the Kremlin's true intentions in 2008.
"In Medvedev and Ivanov, Putin has named two ambitious, powerful figures with their own political teams, and now the West will discuss who will be the successor: the more liberal Medvedev or the more imperialistic Ivanov," Pribylovsky said.
"Meanwhile, Putin will be preparing a way to extend his presidency to a third term."
If Putin opts to step down after his second term, Monday's appointments could be a red herring to help a third candidate as the election approaches, Pribylovsky said.
"With two strong candidates already in the public eye, everyone will be racing to dig up compromising information on them," Pribylovsky said.
"A third candidate -- for example, Vladimir Yakunin -- could then wait quietly offstage for his chance," he said.
Yakunin, a close associate of Putin's, was appointed in June to head the state-run Russian Railways. The appointment to lead the railroad monopoly could also be interpreted as a way to groom Yakunin as a possible successor, analysts have said.
There was no official announcement Monday about the future of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov, who has been the only deputy prime minister since the previous reshuffle in March 2004. Zhukov was expected to keep his job.
Medvedev's new appointment would not lead to his departure from his post at Gazprom, a government source said, Interfax reported.
As part of the shake-up, Putin also named new envoys to two federal districts.
In the Volga Federal District, Putin replaced Kiriyenko with Alexander Konovalov, a former prosecutor in Bashkortostan, and in the Far East, he replaced Pulikovsky with Kazan Mayor Kamil Iskhakov.
Makarkin said that Konovalov could have been appointed to oversee the future transfer of power in Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, where presidents Mintimer Shaimiyev and Murtaza Rakhimov respectively have been in power since the early 1990s.
Iskahkov was likely given a try-out in a federal job as a preparation for succeeding Shaimiyev in Tatarstan, Makarkin said.
In August, Pulikovsky received a mild rebuke from the Kremlin after he proposed Russia's third-richest man, Viktor Vekselberg, a stockholder in oil major TNK-BP and aluminum producer SuAl, as the next governor of Kamchatka.
Staff Writer Carl Schreck contributed to this report.