Moscow News
www.MN.Ru
November 2-8, 2005
Opposition Predicts Third War in Chechnya
In the run-up to parliamentary elections in Chechnya, some are suggesting that the outcome is a foregone conclusion
By Ruslan Osmanov
There are at least three different points of view on the upcoming parliamentary elections in the Chechen Republic, set for November 27. This is hardly surprising: After 10 years of civil war, such a thing as Chechen society is something of a myth.
Predictably, Chechen state and government officials maintain that the elections will be a genuine exercise in electoral democracy. For example, Ismail Baikhanov, chairman of the republic electoral commission, said recently: "We will do all it takes to ensure a fair election and prevent election fraud."
From time to time, there are reports that militants are planning to thwart the elections, their efforts being opposed by police and intelligence services. This is the gist of a recent comment by the Russian Interior Ministry press center in the North Caucasus on the reported discovery of a big arms cache (including fragmentation land mines, TNT explosives, and detonators) in Chechnya's Itum-Kalin district. The arsenal was purportedly designed for acts of intimidation ahead of the elections.
The militants themselves are making no comment on the upcoming elections. Only some Moscow-based authors, criticizing the Russian ruling authorities on the separatists' web sites, write to the effect that "the Chechen people have been voting with their rifles for the past 11 years" and that there can be no free elections amid military occupation and rampant lawlessness.
There is little doubt, however, that the elections will take place, and there will be no surprises. Sources close to the republic's government say that their results are already known, that the list of the winners was made a long time ago and that only those who are approved by the local party of power, led by Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechnya's first deputy prime minister, will make it into the republic's parliament.
What implications could this have for the republic and the country as a whole? Most observers believe that there will be no change: The smoldering conflict will drag on and with it the pervasive oil scams and theft of public funds.
Representatives of the Kadyrov opposition have a slightly different point of view. They believe that a parliament fully controlled by Kadyrov and his inner circle (they have no doubt that this will in fact be the case) will finalize the legitimization of the existing regime. This is just a step away from real independence, which could be proclaimed should Moscow stop directing financial flows into the republic or take a tough stand.
This would lead to a third war in Chechnya - a bad loss of face for Moscow on the international arena since it would have to fight with a legally elected, Kremlin-supported ruling authority. This scenario well suits the separatists who, at this stage in modern Chechen history, could play along with the regime. So there will be no acts of intimidation, not to mention attempts to thwart the elections.
As for rank-and-file voters, surveys show that they are harassed, intimidated and generally at the end of their rope due to all sorts of bandits (anti-regime or pro-regime, this makes no difference to them). People do not believe in elections and are prepared to accept even a Papuan for their leader as long as he lets them live a normal life. Nor do the refugees believe in elections. Here is what Malgobek Aslambek Apayev, deputy chairman of the Committee for the Protection of Forced Migrants, had to say on the issue: "I am sure that ahead of the elections, officials will once again remember about us. Very important persons will start coming to us, promising the earth. But refugees know the real value of these promises. Our ruling authorities only need the refugees as an electorate, but after the elections, they will forget about them again."
Apayev knows what he talks about. People refuse to return to Chechnya: It is too dangerous to live there. Mountainous villages still come under fire, while it is impossible to get a permit to live in Grozny without a big bribe.
Nevertheless the Chechen capital is preparing for the elections. First visual propaganda pieces are appearing alongside bin Laden T-shirts, which recently appeared on the Grozny open-air market.