Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005
From: Edward Lozansky (lozansky@aol.com)
Subject: Comment to Anders Aslund article, JRL 9220
It looks like for the last year or two Anders Aslund was so busy writing doomsday scenarios for Russia that he has absolutely lost his touch with reality. Calling Putin names and advising the U.S. administration first to humiliate Russian president and do everything possible to undermine him, and then to demand his unquestionable cooperation to meet America?s security and energy needs is, mildly speaking, pretty arrogant act.
In case Anders did not notice this is the year 2005, not 1991 when Russia was on its knees and desperately needed Western aid to survive. With oil price well over $60 a barrel and likely to go far higher Russia is becoming not only self sufficient economically but also a major geopolitical player, so far, one should say, only on Eurasian space. With such prices and daily growing demand oil has become the central point of world political and military strategy. Add to it the wild China card and you get the full plate of worries for Washington.
I do not pretend that I said it first but the one power in Eurasia that has the potential to create a strategic combination which could checkmate US global dominance is China. And China needs oil and lots of it. Only ten years ago China was a net oil exporter. Today China is the second-largest importer behind the US. China's energy demand is growing annually at a rate of more than 30% and therefore it is ready to invest up to 100 billion dollars in Russia?s energy infrastructure. Comparing with U.S. microscopic investments in Russia this is pretty impressive.
Beijing is also flexing its geopolitical muscles by upgrading the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and by trying to incorporate in it such important players as India, Pakistan and Iran. Collectively, Eurasia's potential power overshadows even America's and it is Russia that can tip the scale one way or another.
Today Russia with its huge and well protected by nuclear power energy resources has choices; it is no longer needs American aid or even investment, and it is tired of constant lecturing from Washington. Therefore, in this geopolitical chess game Washington should rethink its strategy and concentrate on bringing Russia on its side or at least not to push it away in China?s arms.
One should assume that the White House will ignore Anders? unsolicited advice and will choose a more profound policy towards Russia based on today?s reality and not on some arrogant and obsolete ideas.
Edward Lozansky
President, American University in Moscow