#33 - JRL 9157 - JRL
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From: Eugene Ivanov (eugene_ivanov@comcast.net)
Subject: Repainting the Orange Revolution (RE: Aslund,
JRL #9152)
Date: Sun, 22 May 2005
Writing for the Washington Post on May 18, 2005, Anders Aslund didn’t spare dark colors painting a picture of Ukraine six months after the Orange Revolution (JRL #9152). According to Dr. Aslund, the robust economic growth Ukraine has enjoyed for the past several years is heading for a halt. Inflation is surging and the budget deficit is growing. A recently-introduce! d price control for oil products and meat has simultaneously created Soviet-style lines at gas pumps and wiped clean the counters of Ukraine’s food markets. Uncoordinated and often-contradictory statements on economic issues by President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Timoshenko have shaken confidence of businesses within and outside the country.
Perhaps a space limitation has prevented Dr. Aslund from going on to describe how the victors of the Orange Revolution are treating their political opponents. The country, recently branded “one of the world’s newest democracies,” faces a bona fide witch-hunt. Two regional governors were arrested in a move wildly viewed as an act of retaliation for their support of Yushchenko’s opponent in the disputed presidential election. Political cronyism is blossoming. Scores of government servants and public figures are being forced out of jobs and replaced with Yushchenko’s loyalists. Former Cabinet members commit “! suicides” under such bizarre circumstances that even law enforcement officials have begun second-guessing. The hot potato of the past presidential campaign – who tried to poison then candidate Yushchenko – is suddenly forgotten, raising suspicions that it’s the Yushchenko entourage, rather than the opposition, that has something to hide.
The signs of changing colors of the Orange Revolution are troubling. Its failure would mean much more than just a shortcoming of a bunch of disingenuous political adventurers. Fourteen years ago, it was Russia that stepped down the road of revolutionary changes in the name of democracy. Unfortunately, the results of the economic and political reforms of the 90’s have fallen short of public expectations. The sad, if unintended, outcome of this shortfall was that in the minds of many Russians, the very meaning of democracy is now synonymous with economic hardship, corru! ption, and political instability. This public sentiment is certainly not helping to further advance the democratic transformation of the Russian society.
History may well repeat itself in Ukraine. Should the Orange Revolution end up in economic and political chaos, a sense of disillusion and betrayal will set down. This will be a serious blow to the cause of democracy in Ukraine, Russia, and elsewhere in the post-Soviet space.