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#8 - JRL 7032
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
January 24, 2003
YAVLINSKY GETS AN OFFER TO COMPETE WITH PRESIDENT
Anatoly Chubais might have to quit the Union of Right Forces
Author: Andrey Savitsky
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
TWO INTERRELATED PROCESSES ARE UNDERWAY AROUND YABLOKO AND THE UNION
OF RIGHT FORCES. PUBLICLY, YABLOKO LEADERS DENY ANY POSSIBILITY OF A
MERGER WITH THE URF. IN PRIVATE, HOWEVER, THEY ARE REPORTED TO BE
HOLDING TALKS ABOUT SUCH A MERGER.

Talks on a merger between Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces
(URF) are at a peak. We have learned the gist of some carefully-
concealed proposals for a compromise merger between the URF and
Yabloko. In brief, the unification plan consists of the following. In
the Duma elections the two parties would form a single bloc, with a
common list of candidates. Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky would
moderate his ambitions and agree to take second place on the lists,
with the first being reserved for URF leader Boris Nemtsov. In
exchange for Yavlinsky's "sale" of the top position, the URF would
agree to "surrender" the man in charge of its coffers: Anatoly
Chubais. He would not be on the party lists at all, nor would he be
entrusted with the management of the election campaign. At the same
time, Yavlinsky would gain an additional political bonus: he would
become the sole presidential candidate from the democratic forces.
However, it is still unclear if the support of all democrats at
the presidential elections would be a great gift for Yavlinsky. The
essence of the compromise consists specifically in exchanging first
place for Nemtsov for the "removal" of Chubais. According to a source
of ours, separate talks were launched at the beginning of this week
and are underway "in Moscow, mostly on neutral territory".
Yesterday, when we already knew the details of the "peace plan",
the Public Opinion Foundation released some fresh poll results. If the
election took place this Sunday, 6% of respondents would give their
votes to Yabloko, and only 3% to the URF. When that is the picture, it
is difficult to explain why Grigory Yavlinsky is at the negotiating
table at all; and, moreover, why he has carefully concealed the fact
that the URF had made him an appealing offer.
At yesterday's briefing in the Duma, Sergey Ivanenko, Yavlinsky's
deputy in the party and faction, confirmed that there really was some
discussion underway between the parties. At the same time, Ivanenko
said: "Yabloko has a steadfast political position and, as before, does
not intend to merge with the URF." Moreover, according to Ivanenko,
future cooperation between the two parties (for instance, in single-
mandate electoral districts) is possible only if the URF completely
gives up the idea of a merger. Ivanenko compared the URF with "a virus
that survives by devouring healthy cells". Now, according to the
Yabloko representatives, the URF is seeking to "devour" them.
However, Ivanenko hinted that the final answer to the initiative
of the URF would be given closer to the weekend. In other words, talks
are still continuing.
If, despite Ivanenko's statements, the discussion does end with
the signing of a merger plan, this could be a serious political loss
for Grigory Yavlinsky. His readiness to compromise gives rise to
several theories about events. Perhaps the Yabloko leader is just
tired of being a leader; so in future it will be easier for him to
hide behind Nemtsov's back. If this merger has been imposed on the
parties from the outside, it could also confirm longstanding rumors
that Yabloko has become much more "controlled": second place is not
the choice of Yavlinsky, but that of his sponsor. Finally, this merger
could be evidence that Yavlinsky has simply lost his touch in
politics, and come to believe that the URF's support at the
presidential election will be a big advantage for him. To what extent
these assumptions are right - that will become clear within the next
few days.
(Translated by P. Pikhnovsky)

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