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RUSSIA AND ITS NEIGHBORS: FOCUS ON NORTHEAST ASIA

Introduction to the section

This month I have two related pieces under this heading pertaining to the future of northeast Asia. Scenarios for this region naturally center on Russian-Chinese relations, and tend to assume that the contrast between a strong, stable, and prosperous China and a weak, fractured, and economically stagnant Russia will persist or even sharpen.

However, a recent Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief by Minxin Pei, discussed in the first piece below, points to serious underlying weaknesses in China's polity and economy that are not so different from corresponding phenomena in Russia. Therefore it is worth thinking about other kinds of future scenarios, including those that juxtapose if not a strong then at least a recovering Russia with a weakening China, and also those in which Russia and China are equally weak.

One important feature of "weak Russia--weak China" scenarios will be an enhanced role for other smaller countries in the region, in particular a reunited Korea and Mongolia. In this context the little known latent territorial issues in Russia's relations with Mongolia may acquire a significance that they lack today. This is the subject of the second piece. -- SDS

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