RUSSIA AND ITS NEIGHBORS
7. ISLAM IN THE CIS - RAS 13, JRL 6571
SOURCE. Yaacov Ro'i, Islam in the CIS: A Threat to Stability? London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2001.
In this paper, one of the "Central Asian and Caucasian Prospects" series of Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, Professor Ro'i (Tel Aviv University) provides a succinct overview of the Islamic revival in the former USSR and the various forms taken by the politicization of Islam in the post-Soviet region. He surveys Islamic activism in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Dagestan, Chechnya, and Tatarstan, and discusses the incursions of armed Islamists into Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in 1999 and 2000.
The author's assessments are careful and restrained. He argues that there is less to the Islamic revival than meets the eye: it has NOT brought about "far-reaching changes in the lifestyle and worldview of society at large beyond general declarations of identification with Islam." Thus the religious observance of most nominal Moslems is perfunctory; and sharia courts function only in a few villages in the North Caucasus (and even there without official approval).
Is there an Islamic threat to stability? Professor Ro'i replies that existing governments ARE threatened, not by Islam as such but by popular discontent that often expresses itself by means of political Islam. If a civil society were created and Islamic parties allowed a place within it, "the chances of a radical Islamization of [post-Soviet] societies would seem to be slight." Nevertheless, a real Islamic threat may be in process of formation. The repression of Islamists enhances their popularity and also drives them to more extreme stances and methods. The endless warnings of government leaders about the dangers of Islamic subversion, initially issued for the ulterior purpose of de-legitimizing all political opposition, have been a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you want a threat badly enough, your wish will eventually come true.
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