#12
Slovo
December 7-13, 2001
THE IMPENDING CATASTROPHE
The population crisis: life expectancy, migration, and the workforce
Author: Sebastian Pritskov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
RUSSIA IS LOSING ITS SKILLED SPECIALISTS BECAUSE OF EMIGRATION, BUT THIS LOSS IS COMPENSATED FOR BY IMMIGRATION OF SKILLED WORKERS FROM THE POORER NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES. ACCORDING TO SOME ESTIMATES, BY 2050 RUSSIA WILL NEED NO FEWER THAN 17.5 MILLION MIGRANTS, OF WHOM ONLY 15% WILL BE ETHNIC RUSSIANS.
Currently, Russia is going through a severe demographic crisis. Since early 1990s the Russian population has decreased by 3 million people. This figure would double without migrants. If in 1989 there were 1.53 million deaths for each 2.16 million births, in 1999 this proportion was 1.99:1.28. If the Russian population continues decreasing, in the near fifteen years it will fall by 9-17 million people (from the present 145 million). According to forecasts, by 2050 the population may decrease by 60 million people: then there will be 80 million to 100 million people in Russia. In 2000 women's life expectancy was 72.2 years, men's life expectancy was 59.8 years. Thus, Russia is among the bottom third of all countries according to life expectancy.
The reasons for such a high death rate and such low life expectancy are diverse. The food is mostly high-fat and low in vitamins. Almost two-thirds of men smoke. Heart disease is widespread. And the number of people who have tuberculosis, AIDS, and sexually transmitted diseases such as syphilis is rapidly growing. According to Russian statistics, in 1998 450,000 cases of syphilis were registered; and the spread of the AIDS virus is reaching African levels.
In the past 18 months alone, 129,216 new HIV-positive people have been registered in Russia; this problem is especially disturbing in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Irkutsk, and the Kaliningrad region.
Tuberculosis is also spreading in Russia: in some regions 80 people out of 100,000 have tuberculosis, which is actually defined as an epidemic. According to the World Health Organization, in 1998 150,000 cases of tuberculosis were registered, with a trend toward growth; 15% of them were fatal.
The tense social situation is also bad for life expectancy. Violence, accidents, alcohol abuse, together with suicide, are the top causes of death after cancer. In 1998 forty percent of men who died were of working age. However, it is not only low life expectancy that is the main reason for the population decline in Russia. One of the main reasons is the extremely low birth rate, which is one of the lowest in the world. In 1998 it was 1.25 and this noticeably lower than 2.15 which provides for full replacement of generations. Today there are 4.4 million fewer children than five years ago.
Emigration also has a negative impact on the population. In 1988- 98 many ethnic Germans left Russia. Since mid-1990s about 288,000 people emigrated from the country. In the first half of 1990s mostly people of German and Jewish nationality left the country; in 1998 they totaled a third of all emigrants from Russia. Emigration is a hard issue for Russia because the majority of emigrants are young, well- prepared people, so the country is losing its intellectual potential.
The government is considering the high death rate as a factor that endangers the national security. It would be possible to gain quick results if the government managed to increase the men's life expectancy by three years as it happened in the course of Mikhail Gorbachev's prohibition campaign.
In order to improve the health of the population, the government passed a law that banned selling cigarettes to under-aged and smoking in public places. The wages of the medical workers much be increased by 60%, the people should be informed about the danger of high blood pressure of which suffers 40% of the population. Simultaneously, the government is working out the state pension system.
However, all these measures are far from being enough for improvement of the demographic situation. That is why the migrants arriving in Russia should be paid attention to. From 1992 to 1998 about 5.1 million people immigrated in Russia. They are mostly ethnic Russians from CIS countries and the Baltic states. From 1996 the current of ethnic Russians has reduced; however, the immigration level is still rather high if consider the residents of the Central Asia and the Caucasus.
According to the Interior Ministry, 350,000 people arrived in Russia in 2000. As a result of economic growth at present some Siberian regions lack skilled labor force, which is a good reason for oil companies to start looking for employees in the CIS countries. The main subjects for the search are Ukraine and Belarus, as these countries have one language and one culture.
Thus, the conclusion is that in particular Russia is losing a part of its skilled specialists because of the emigration, but this loss is compensated for by migration into the country of skilled labor force from the poorer neighbor countries. According to real estimates, by 2050 Russia will need no fewer than 17.5 million migrants, of which only 15% will be ethnic Russians. Many details indicate that even an increase of the birth rate as a result of economic growth will not be enough to replace the departing generation. Given a drastic decline and aging of the population, Russia's global position is endangered.
(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova )
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