#13
Nezavisimoye Voyennoe Obozrenie
December 7-14, 2001
LEAVING LOURDES
Why has Russia abandoned its military bases abroad?
Author: Valery Yaremenko
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
THE CHANGES IN RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY HAVE BEEN SO ABRUPT AND UNEXPECTED THAT THE RUSSIAN POLITICAL ELITE HAS HAD NO TIME TO RE- ORIENT ITSELF. INITIALLY, THEY SUPPORTED THE PRESIDENT'S INITIATIVES, BUT NOW THEY HAVE STARTED TO HAVE DOUBTS. PUTIN NEEDS THE WEST TO MAKE SOME GESTURE OF SUPPORT FOR RUSSIA.
Lately, the media has started speaking about some new trends in Russian foreign policy: a course to strategic partnership with the west, forgetting its own interests, unilateral concessions to the US, and so on.
In these terms, the September decision of President Vladimir Putin to shut down the radio-electronic center (REC) at Lourdes, Cuba, raised a storm of debate.
To be more precise, on October 17 at a closed meeting at the Defense Ministry, the president only announced what had been decided in the Cabinet last summer. In July and August Putin agreed with the opinion of experts (including defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and Joint Staff Head Anatoly Kvashnin as representatives of the Defense Ministry), who reported that Russian foreign military bases - Lourdes, Cam Ranh (Vietnam), Gudauta (Abkhazia), missile warning systems in Belarus, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kirgizia are inefficient in the present geopolitical situation. Over 20 billion rubles that are annually spent on their maintenance, are not repaid form both political and economic viewpoints.
In December last year the Russian president visited Cuba, and together with Fidel Castro they visited the "most secret object" on the island. Lourdes subordinates to the Joint Staff main intelligence department, lately experts of the Federal Agency for governmental liaison and information (FAGLI) have also worked there. Since 1964 REC has collected information on weapons on bilateral agreements, intercepted telephone talks and e-mail messages on the considerable part of the US. The Center has also tracked US submarines and provided 24-hour communications between Russian military and civilian facilities: ships and submarines, embassies, consulates, and so on in the Western hemisphere. According to Fidel Castro successor Defense Minister Raoul Castro, Lourdes provides up to 75% of intelligence information to Russia.
Putin knew all this, but he also knew other things: the station became obsolete about ten years ago, when the US made a technological leap in the satellite industry, and a tremendous amount of information went via the Internet. So, at present, Russia can receive the same information by means of a less expensive and politicized way: with the help of orbital satellites.
According to Colonel N., who until recently worked at Lourdes, "The US has fooled us around for about ten years. They have installed several special stations in Florida, that is about 300 kilometers from Cuba and have been broadcasting misinformation. Now it is clear how much misinformation we had transferred to the leadership of our country! Hundreds of employees of the station were rewarded for 'excellent work'. I came back and I am feeling ashamed to look into my friends' eyes...."
Only the annual rent for the Center cost Russia $200 million. Overall, over the past ten years Russia has spent $3 billion, if not take into account technical and personnel maintenance.
It is hard to say whether our leaving Cuba is a "present for Bush" or a flap on the back. At least, officially Washington was very reserved about it: "Liquidation of the last relic of the Cold War." According to some data, George Bush-younger knew about Moscow's intentions after the first meeting with Vladimir Putin in Lyublyana. The CIA and the Intelligence Department of the Defense Ministry kept silent, obviously they were not interested in closing the station. The US congressmen were not delighted either - trying to increase the danger from the radio-electronic station, last year they made a decision on banning writing Russian debts off until the station is closed. Double game, double arithmetic. Perhaps, Putin has found an invisible spot, an intricate algorithm!
It is also important to stress that for many years Cuba used the rent to bolster its budget, and the center for political blackmail in its game not only against the US, but also with Russia, that in fact was a Cuba's hostage. It was a sort of an asymmetric dependence, when the "tail wagged the dog".
As it was expected, the official Havana "completely disagrees" with Moscow.
However, evacuation of the center will start only in 2002; part of equipment will for sure be given to Cuba free of charge. This means some Russian specialists will also stay there. In 1999 China started building an analogous station on the island, it will bring money there. Moreover, "Russia's leave" and Russia's closing with the US will only contribute to sooner cancellation of the economic embargo and the Harms-Berton law, that intends to "suffocate Cuba".
What does Russia benefit by it? Opponents believe that Castro became an inconvenient figure in Putin's long-term patience, and that Moscow is ready to sacrifice Cuba in order to become closer to the West.
Putin's supporters are very pragmatic. They note that the character of international relations has changed in both form and contents, and the military component is at the background now. Cooperation with the US gives Russia great advantages and the president of the country must use it. The main obstacle is that the 1972 ABM Treaty lost its meaning after September 11 for not only the US, but the whole civilized world, including Russia. It may be painlessly rejected. Further on, the issue of Russian debts is likely to be positively resolved, the Jackson-Wanic amendment is to be cancelled, Russia will enter the World Trade Organization, will become a member of the European Community, and probably, of NATO. The west will not interfere with Russia's actions concerning resolving the Chechen crisis and other issues of the Caucasus region.
However, the changes in Russian foreign policy have been so abrupt and unexpected that the Russian political elite hasn't had time to re-orient itself. Initially, they supported the president's initiatives, but now they are asking: "Why are we doing all this?" If President Putin continues distancing himself from the elite, after a while the unity of the bureaucratic and military ranks may break and there will be real opposition. The president will be able to prove the correctness of the new course only if the West really moves toward Russia and Russian citizens really feel the impact of this. However, if this does not happen, the present pro-western turn could easily be replaced with an opposite one.
(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova)
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