#15
Novaya Gazeta
No. 74
October 11, 2001
THE WRONG WAR
The war in Afghanistan is likely to be completely useless
Author: Vakhtang Shelia
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
DO WE REALLY NEED THIS WAR IN AFGHANISTAN? THE TALIBAN HAS NO SUPPORT, AND THEY ARE SURE TO START TAKING REVENGE FOR THIS WAR SOONER OR LATER. THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ABLE TO DEFEAT THE TALIBAN, EVEN WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN.
It's been a long time since the world awaited a war with so much excitement. People were impatient. It seems that if President Bush had hesitated for a couple of days more, the public and the media would have torn him to pieces.
Now that the war machine has been set into motion and nothing can stop it, when military targets and Afghanistan towns are being bombed, and generals announce numbers of destroyed military targets, it is time to think quietly of what is actually going on. Planes are bombing Afghanistan from a height of seven to ten kilometers. Cruise missiles are being launched from ships and submarines, at a distance of about 500-1000 kilometers. The air strikes continue at night, when any accuracy is out of the question. Yes, of course, a few airfields will be destroyed, together with shabby and deteriorating Soviet planes and radar stations. Perhaps some old and worn-out tanks will be flattened as well. But at the same time, the air strikes will take out many residential buildings.
The main forces of the Taliban - semi-partisan units - have already hidden themselves away in gorges and caves, and are waiting for their uninvited guests. It is highly doubtful that they will waste their forces in direct battle, as their chances of winning are close to zero. They will concentrate on ambushes and night raids.
Meanwhile, the capacities of the Northern Alliance are limited. Not because they do not have enough machines or people. Even if the Northern Alliance had a lot of them, and were supported by aviation from the United States and Britain, it would not be able to defeat the Taliban.
Three years ago, when the Taliban was attacking and the media was predicting its inevitable defeat, the Northern Alliance managed to hold out only due to the support of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan residents. And now its main forces comprise Uzbeks, Tajiks, Khazarians and other peoples of Afghanistan. Meanwhile, moving to the south the Northern Alliance will have to enter the territory, inhabited by mostly Pushtu tribes. The Taliban will conduct a partisan war, with the support of the local people. But still this is not the main thing. The Western coalition, essentially, is fighting not so much against bin Laden and the Taliban, as against Pushtus. The Taliban consists of 95% Pushtus. Pushtus have now become the "bad guys" for the West. As a result, the West is crushing a country which is stuck in the 19th century, with the help of the latest weapons.
Perhaps, no people has even found itself in such a difficult situation. Iraq was supported by a part of the Arab world. Serbs had the support of Russia. Chechens are supported by Turkey, countries of the Middle East, and the West. Pushtus have no support whatsoever, even their closest allies - Pakistan - have refused to help them. Now they have nothing but quiet compassion from the Muslin world.
Pushtus will try to revenge the whole world for their fear and solitude. Supporters of different Muslim movements in other countries will gradually join them. After pictures of victims and shambles in Afghanistan have overshadowed the events of September 11, the military campaign will seem a cruel massacre of Muslims.
The war in Afghanistan is viewed as a crusade of the West against Islam in many Muslim countries. Even in such a secular state as Turkey, let alone Pakistan. The response to that might be: "So shouldn't we take any revenge for the terrorist attacks in the United States?" Of course we should. But to crush a country without industry, railroads or normal roads, which has been in a state of civil war for 20 years, is not the best solution
It would be wiser to start differently. Firstly, to clarify the situation around representative offices of radical religious organizations in Britain and the United States. Until recently, there has been more than ten Islamite radical organizations in London. It was from London that members of the united organizations Jikhad and Al-Qaida distributed triumphant statements of Osama bin Laden one hour after the explosions of embassies in Kenya and Tansania.
Secondly, it would make sense to strike a blow to the financial structure of the terrorists first. The money that terrorists use are in prestigious banks.
Thirdly, it would be much wiser to strike really accurate point blows to terrorist bases and drug laboratories in Afghanistan. The United States had information concerning the location of these objects. Now, of course, they have lost the time. The terrorists have already managed to dismantle and hide all the equipment. Frankly speaking, they should have spent more time on preparing Pakistan to such a rapid change of its politics. Lack of stability in a nuclear country, crowded with religious extremists is not a joke.
And last but not least question: what about the proofs of the connection of bin Laden with the acts of terrorism on September 11? I remember, in the autumn 1999 after the explosions of houses in Moscow, the world demanded from Russia to prove it.
The authorities of Russia, in their turn, should not make such a fuss. It would not make sense to overstrain ourselves and impose our help and protection. In this case, it is very wise to restrain ourselves to moderate and measured support. We should not send military experts to Afghanistan. This is not our war. And we should not get involved in it, the risks are too high. Only a very naive person could expect loyalty and gratitude from the Northern Alliance. Now the alliance is a partner of the Western coalition; tomorrow they will declare a war to cleanse Afghanistan of foreign interventionists. This has happened before, in Afghanistan and elsewhere, more than once. Western military officials announce in their interviews that the unsuccessful experience of the USSR and Britain will not be repeated. They are 100% sure that the operation will succeed. Certainty is a good thing. But we should bear it in mind that the military around whole world consider themselves to be prepared for everything before war actually starts; but history usually has a lot of surprises in.
(Translated by Daria Brunova)
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