March 23, 2000    
This Date's Issues: 4191 • 4192  

Johnson's Russia List
#4192
23 March 2000
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
COMPUTER PROBLEM RESOLVED after 18 hours. It was one of those
impersonal glitch things. Nevertheless a sobering experience.

1. Reuters: Anatoly Verbin, Yeltsin's best trick is vanishing act.
2. AFP: Putin "very likely" to face run-off vote next month.
3. Segodnya: Oleg Odnokolenko, REVISING YELTSIN'S POLITICAL 
HERITAGE.
4. AP: Anna Dolgov, Russian Mothers Urge Vote for Peace.
5. The Times (UK): Giles Whittell, Putin reaches out to wayward 
republic. (Tartarstan)
6. Bloomberg: Podberyozkin Campaigns for Votes in Silence.
7. Reuters: Elizabeth Piper, Murmansk looks to new strong 
man: Putin.
8. BBC MONITORING: RUSSIAN PAPER SAYS UNION OF RIGHT FORCES 
LIKELY TO SPLIT INTO TWO PARTIES.
9. BBC MONITORING: OFFICERS MAY SUE PAPER OVER ARTICLES ABOUT 
LAST YEAR'S BOMBINGS.
10. The Electronic Telegraph (UK): Marcus Warren, Residents 
of 'bomb' flats are stars of poll drama.
11. Interfax: DEATH RATE ALMOST TWICE AS HIGH AS BIRTH RATE.
12. Peter Mahoney: Re: 4187 Cisek/Wedel.]

*******

#1
ANALYSIS-Yeltsin's best trick is vanishing act
By Anatoly Verbin

MOSCOW, March 23 (Reuters) - Boris Yeltsin's latest conjuring trick has been 
simply to disappear. 

Vladimir Putin was the handpicked successor of the deeply unpopular first 
president of Russia. But Russians are widely expected to follow Yeltsin's 
directive at polling stations on Sunday and elect Putin as their new head of 
state. 

Explanations vary. 

``Come on, this is Russia, with its short memory and tendency to look for a 
new face,'' said one political analyst. 

Yet they may be too simplistic. 

The truth behind the Putin phenomenon appears to be a combination of factors, 
led by the notion of restoring national pride. And Yeltsin's absence. 

Kremlin sources say one of the biggest worries for Putin's campaign 
headquarters was to keep Yeltsin out of the way. Some jokingly call it 
``house arrest.'' 

``No losses in Chechnya are as harmful to Putin as the possibility of Yeltsin 
getting involved, like his trip to Israel when he promised 'to work together' 
with Putin after his election,'' said one source. 

Last August, Yeltsin, slowed by illnesses, seemingly out of touch with 
reality and widely disliked, sacked his fourth prime minister in 17 months, 
opened his filing cabinet and took out the next and probably last folder -- 
former spy Putin. 

Most of the country mocked his choice of a totally unknown figure. The West 
froze in surprise when Yeltsin not only made Putin prime minister but also 
said he would like to turn over the reins of power to him. 

POPULAR AFTER GETTING SACKED 

All previous premiers only became popular after Yeltsin sacked them, some 
because they grew too powerful, others 

because of what he saw as policy mistakes. 

Putin's case turned out to be completely different. 

His first move was to launch a war in Chechnya in which an increasing number 
of young Russian soldiers have been dying in recent weeks to bring to heel 
the rebel region of Chechnya. 

Yeltsin, who had said the first Chechen war in 1994-96 was a mistake, did not 
waver in his support of Putin. 

He hugely boosted Putin's chances by forcing an early election when he 
resigned dramatically on New Year's Eve. It took Yeltsin just a few hours to 
announce his decision to his staff and the nation, pack and go to his dacha 
(country house) to watch the effect. 

Many say Putin is so popular because he is all that Yeltsin was not, 
especially in his second term. 

The political magazine Itogi said an analysis of Putin's supporters showed 
they backed him in contrast with Yeltsin. 

``Yeltsin was a true Russian character and voters recognised themselves in 
him. He had no limits, be it drinking, partying or fighting. They loved him 
for this at first and then they hated him for this,'' Itogi said. 

``It seems Russians do not want to fall in love again with a president. It's 
like a woman who is dead tired of passionately loving an alcoholic husband. 
She seeks a new partner, not so much of a macho and not so beautiful, but 
calm and sober.'' 

STUDY IN CONTRASTS 

The contrast between Yeltsin and Putin could not be greater. 

Yeltsin was old, Putin is young. Yeltsin had difficulties with his own 
language, Putin speaks fluent German. Yeltsin was voluble but 
straightforward. Few know what the taciturn Putin really thinks. Yeltsin 
liked a drink. A bar owner in Germany, where Putin was a spy, said a beer 
would last him all evening. 

There is little doubt that, unlike Yeltsin, Putin will see through the war in 
Chechnya, whatever the cost. 

Yeltsin was on first-name terms with many world leaders but allowed the 
country to lose its superpower status. 

Putin speaks coolly with the West, but national pride has been restored. 

It appears the nation cherishes the feeling of being a great power and is 
ready to sacrifice more for this than for abstract notions of human rights 
and freedoms championed by Yeltsin. 

The hope of restoring this pride, firmly associated with Putin, coupled with 
a surprisingly good economic performance mostly based on high oil prices, is 
enough for Russia to forget Putin's links to the former leader. 

Now, the only question opinion polls have not answered decisively is whether 
Putin will win in a single round on Sunday or be forced to a runoff. 

Either way, Yeltsin's next trick will probably be to reappear, magician-like, 
at Putin's May inauguration to say -- ``I've done it.'' 

*******

#2
Putin "very likely" to face run-off vote next month

MOSCOW, March 22 (AFP) - 
Favourite Vladimir Putin will likely fail to win outright victory in Sunday's 
first round presidential vote, forcing a run-off ballot next month, Russia's 
top election official said Wednesday.

"I would say that the probability of a second round is very high," Alexander 
Veshnyakov told the Izvestia daily, commenting polls that showed Putin's 
support slipping below the 50 percent needed for a first round win.

"I don't think that a second round will complicate our work," added the head 
of Russia's electoral commission.

The run-off contest would be held on April 16.

Putin, whose "anti-terrorist" crackdown against separatist rebels in Chechnya 
has delighted Russian voters, is seen as certain to beat the 10 remaining 
contenders to lead this ailing nuclear power for the next four years.

But the interim head of state's chances of avoiding a second round have been 
shaken in recent days after an apparent shift in public opinion.

An ARPI poll, conducted from March 17 to 19, gave Putin 48.4 percent of the 
vote -- the second recent survey to show his support at less than 50 percent.

Some pollsters believe talk of slipping support is a ruse to boost interest 
in a campaign devoid of suspense. A ROMIR poll conducted from March 18 to 19 
gave the Kremlin chief 57 percent of voting intentions.

But analyst Yury Korgunyuk from the Centre for Applied Political Studies, 
said it was "very possible" that Putin would face a run-off contest against 
the second-placed candidate, expected to be Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov.

While the Communist candidate's supporters -- concentrated among pensioners 
and the working-class -- are likely to be out in force on polling day, "many 
of those who might vote for Putin are not motivated," he said.

A second round, paradoxically, would be harmful for Russia's democracy, 
according to Korgunyuk, since it would force the 47-year-old former KGB spy 
to turn to powerful media magnates and local governors to mobilise votes.

"It will weaken Putin in a harmful way for society. When the president is 
under an obligation to various magnates and regional bosses, nothing good can 
come from it," he commented.

Putin, who has vowed to clip back the wings of regional leaders and draw back 
power to the centre, took his campaign bandwagon to the Muslim republic of 
Tatarstan on Wednesday.

Oil-rich Tatarstan negotiated a far-reaching treaty with Moscow after the 
break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 which grants the republic a large degree 
of autonomy.

But Putin, who toured the regional capital Kazan accompanied by Tartar 
President Mintimer Shaimiyev, said Russia needed strong central government.

"We must aim to make life good in all Russian regions. We will not achieve 
this without a united legal and economic space in Russia," Putin said, cited 
by Interfax news agency.

His Communist rival Zyuganov meanwhile took his election campaign to 
Nizhny-Novgorod, Russia's third city which played host to Putin the day 
before.

Visiting the Krasnoye Sormovo submarine plant in the city, some 500 
kilometres (300 miles) southeast of Moscow, he was welcomed by workers in 
factory uniform who offered him red carnations, symbol of the 1917 Revolution.

Lena, 34, said: "I'll vote for him. I believe in him. We don't know Putin. 
But if he supports Yeltsin, we know what he stands for."

Sunday's poll will only count 11 candidates after a minor contender withdrew 
from the presidential elections in favour of liberal Yabloko leader Grigory 
Yavlinsky.

Yevgeny Savostyanov, a former head of the Federal Security Serviceex-KGB), 
announced the decision late Tuesday, just before a midnight deadline for any 
candidates wishing to cancel his registration.

*******

#3
Segodnya
March 23, 2000
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
REVISING YELTSIN'S POLITICAL HERITAGE
By Oleg ODNOKOLENKO

Presidential elections resemble a civil war, to some 
extent. The thing is that the "political son's" views simply 
don't coincide with those of his "political father." This is 
witnessed during Vladimir Putin's campaign tours, whose 
itinerary coincides with Boris Yeltsin's memorable 1996 
pre-election marathon. Nevertheless, these two campaign trips 
are miles apart in terms of their political aspects. Frankly 
speaking, the last three days virtually herald Putin's break 
with Yeltsin's political heritage. The acting Russian president 
did his best to convince local voters that he is not Yeltsin's 
successor, but rather an independent politician, who lacks any 
"bad heredity" whatsoever. The stage was set at Grozny's 
Severny (North) airport, where Putin told everyone that federal 
forces should not have been withdrawn from Chechnya during the 
previous campaign. This won't happen today, he added. Putin's 
message is clear enough -- as is known, Boris Yeltsin had 
visited the very same airport in the spring of 1996, eventually 
signing a peace decree atop an APC (Armored Personnel Carrier) 
there.
Putin moved to actively revise Yeltsin's political 
heritage in Tatarstan the other day. Among other things, Putin 
amended Yeltsin's most famous aphorism to the effect that 
Russian republics have the right to obtain as much sovereignty, 
as they can swallow. By the way, this proverb and a byword was 
also uttered by Yeltsin in Tatarstan. For his own part, Putin 
made it clear that such a formula has become obsolete a long 
time ago. In his words, one should not share power with the 
center at this stage. On the contrary, regional authorities 
would now be expected to share power with the people, as they 
expand the municipal self-government system.
Furthermore, as distinct from Yeltsin, who liked to stress 
the fact that he serves as the Constitution's guarantor, Putin 
is ready to amend the Constitution rather actively. Most 
importantly, such amendments must not exert any negative impact 
on the population's way of life, he stressed.
Moreover, Yeltsin had failed in his efforts to bring republican 
constitutions in conformity with the federal Constitution. But 
the thing is that Putin apparently keeps solving this problem 
today. At any rate president Mintimer Shaimiyev of Tatarstan 
has already voiced some proposals on this issue (to quote 
Putin). Quite possibly his Bashkir counterpart Murtaza Rakhimov 
will also state his readiness to share power in Bashkortostan 
March 23.
The stylistic aspect of Vladimir Putin's election campaign 
also serves as graphic proof of the fact that Putin's views 
don't coincide with those of his "political father." In his 
time, Boris Yeltsin broke a pot during a traditional Sabantui 
festival in Kazan, with analysists perceiving this as his most 
striking move. Meanwhile Putin attached priority to spiritual 
aspects, hugging a mullah and kissing an Orthodox Christian 
priest. Apart from that, Putin visited city slums.
One can also safely say that Putin, who never takes off his 
neck-tie, is highly unlikely to pose as an orchestra conductor. 
However, his fast strolls through a livestock-breeding farm and 
a weaving factory don't seem to be very convincing. Putin also 
tries to emphasize his contrasting image, which differs greatly 
from that of Yeltsin. In fact, the acting president keeps 
displaying his robust health time and again, as he pins down an 
opponent during a judo match or flies aboard Sukhoi warplanes. 
He also finds it easier to come to terms with the nation's 
military. Putin keeps using military slang, including such 
words as "to spoil someone in the loo," "jerks" and "beasts," 
with the utmost of ease.
Yeltsin could not afford such improvisations.
Considering the fact that Russia's acting president 
maintains close relations with Boris Yeltsin, one can say that 
such tactics mean only one thing -- the men in the Kremlin 
believe that a second election round is distinctly possible.
According to some political-science experts, any of Putin's 
opponents, be it Zyuganov or Yavlinsky, would play the card of 
the former's "family ties," regarding such ties as their main 
weapon. By all looks, Putin has now decided to sever such ties, 
at least in the eyes of public at large... 

******

#4
Russian Mothers Urge Vote for Peace
March 22, 2000
By ANNA DOLGOV

MOSCOW (AP) - The Soldiers Mothers' Committee on Wednesday urged Russians to 
vote against Vladimir Putin, who gained popularity for his tough handling of 
the Chechnya war, saying an election victory for the acting president would 
mean more bloodshed.

``If you are voting for war, put aside money for your children's funeral,'' 
read a sign at a news conference called by the committee, whose defense of 
servicemen's rights and anti-war stance have earned it a position as a 
powerful moral force in Russia.

But anti-Putin appeals by the group are unlikely to sway voters who, after a 
decade of inefficient and corrupt government under Boris Yeltsin, long for 
the strength and rectitude that Putin projects. He is seen as a shoo-in in 
the Sunday's presidential vote.

Putin, who supports more centralized authority in Russia, reached for support 
of some of the country's most powerful and autonomy-minded regions Wednesday.

On a trip to Kazan, the capital of the Tatarstan republic, Putin hailed the 
region as a model of smart economic management and ethnic peace, and promised 
compromise and caution in the federal government's often testy relations with 
Tatarstan.

``The process of reforming the federation is continuing, but we must not make 
hasty changes,'' Putin said. Unlike other regions, Tatarstan has control over 
its budget, land and most of its resources, including oil.

The agreement triggered a series of similar pacts with other well-to-do 
provinces. Poor regions, meanwhile, complained of an unjust approach, warning 
that the federation may break apart.

Putin was also scheduled to visit the neighboring republic of Bashkortostan.

Opinion polls show Putin well ahead of other candidates, but it is unclear 
whether he will marshal the more than 50-percent needed for a first-round 
victory. His popularity appears to stem largely from his decisive handling of 
the Chechnya conflict.

Although the first Chechen war from 1994 to 1996 provoked public outrage, 
support has been widespread for the current offensive, which came after an 
invasion of a neighboring Russian republic by Chechnya-based rebels.

Authorities also blame the rebels for a series of apartment bombings that 
killed about 300 people.

But the mothers' committee tried to turn the race around Wednesday.

``I will not vote for Putin because Putin means war,'' said Ida Kuklina, a 
prominent member of the committee. ``I see an endless conflict, which can 
roll over to other regions.''

The group did not endorse any of the several other candidates in the 
presidential race. Grigory Yavlinsky, of the reformist Yabloko party, has 
promised to end the war if elected, but his support has been in single digits.

Russian casualties in Chechnya total 1,628 killed and 4,308 wounded since 
Oct. 1., according to figures announced last week.

But a leader of the mothers' committee, Valentina Melnikova, estimated 
Wednesday that the death toll was more than 4,000, with about 8,000 injured.

******

#5
The Times (UK)
March 23 2000 
[for personal use only]
Putin reaches out to wayward republic 
From Giles Whittell in Kazan, Central Russia 

TWENTY jeeps long and flanked by hundreds of stony-faced police, Vladimir 
Putin's election motorcade rolled into central Russia yesterday on a mission 
to rein in the country's regional overlords and bring closer the vision of a 
powerful state centred on the Kremlin. 

Four days before the presidential election, Mr Putin's latest campaign stop 
was his boldest so far. The rise of Russia's wayward regions, a key reason 
for the failed reforms of the Yeltsin era, is nowhere a more pointed threat 
to Moscow than in Tartarstan's ancient capital, 800 miles to the east, where 
the Russian flag is seldom seen and the local president rules by diktat. 

Yesterday Mr Putin extended an olive branch to Tartarstan's two million 
Muslims, many of whom feel solidarity with those he has spent six months 
bombing and driving from their homes in Chechnya. He toured a towering new 
mosque being built within Kazan's own kremlin on the banks of the Kazanka 
river, and said that he recognised the use of letting people "decide their 
fate themselves". But he also sent a clear message that he plans to reassert 
control. He rejected as out of date a famous offer that Boris Yeltsin made to 
the Tartars in the early 1990s of "as much independence as you can swallow". 
Earlier, after a concert in his honour, he said: "Tartarstan reminds me of 
Texas. When you look at the map you see how big it is compared with its 
neighbours, but you remember that with its help America flourishes." 

Mr Putin, who is unused to microphones, was invited on to the stage by 
Mintimer Shaimiyev, Tartarstan's president, who is not a candidate in 
Sunday's election but still managed to goad the runaway favourite into live 
repartee for the first time in his lacklustre campaign. 

The tone was light and verging on sycophantic, but the stakes were high. 

Mr Putin casts the Chechen war as a fight for Russia's survival, which he 
claims would be at risk should separatism spread up the Volga to the 
heartland. Last week, in his biography serialised in The Times, he singled 
out Tartarstan for having "too many privileges which other regions lack". 

Mr Shaimiyev is walking a tightrope between Moscow's muscle-flexing and the 
Tartar nationalism he has spent 12 years harnessing to conspicuous advantage. 
His re-election unopposed in 1996, he has fostered a booming personality cult 
as "grandfather" of the Tartar people. They face fines of up to £3,800 if 
caught insulting him. But in return they enjoy higher living standards than 
most Russians thanks to his policy of withholding federal taxes on 
Tartarstan's impressive oil production. 

Six months ago Mr Shaimiyev led an effort by regional governors to anoint 
Yevgeny Primakov, the former Soviet spymaster, as Russia's 
president-in-waiting. 

Since then he has performed a nimble U-turn in the face of Mr Putin's 
impressive rise in the polls, pledging his support and obedience. Yesterday 
it was all too clear who was in charge in Kazan. 

The entire regional government stopped to welcome Mr Putin, whose entourage 
filled all 15 hotels in the city and included police handlers for the press, 
one of whom followed a group of foreign journalists into a public lavatory to 
question them about their plans. 

The local Muslim clergy insists that it needs no such scrutiny despite 
reports that Bosnia's Muslims, as well as the Chechen rebels, have recruited 
Tartar fighters to their causes. 

"We cannot be responsible for what every Muslim in Tartarstan does," Gousman 
Ishakov, a Shaimiyev appointee and Kazan's senior cleric, said. "They fell 
prey to the Chechen authorities, who should have followed our example of 
peaceful co-existence with Russia." 

As Mr Ishakov showed off his new mosque yesterday, a deathly calm prevailed 
on the streets outside. Protests planned by hardline Tartar nationalists were 
cancelled after local police warned them of "unpleasant consequences". One 
activist complained that the Putin regime promised to be "similar to the 
Soviet one - or worse". But the truth is probably more mundane. 

Sensing voters' impatience with promises, the Putin camp has made none. 
Instead, it has mounted a series of photo opportunities dutifully covered by 
three state-run television channels, which are the only ones received in all 
of Russia's 11 time zones. 

Coasting to victory, Mr Putin has had the added satisfaction of watching his 
rivals self-destruct. His nearest, the Communist Gennadi Zyuganov, has sunk 
to below 20 per cent in the polls as the also-rans, including a notorious 
Chechen businessman who bases his policies on those of Napoleon, have 
bickered on television with everyone but Mr Putin himself. 

Russia's true power struggle will resume after the election. When it does, 
Tartarstan may escape the worst of Mr Putin's authoritarian instincts thanks 
to its success at averting the calamity of inter-ethnic war in the heart of 
the country. 

Even so, Mr Putin would do well to note one protest shielded from him 
yesterday: 50 empty coffins laid out on a street. One organiser explained 
their purpose: "To receive the bodies of Muslims sent to kill their Chechen 
brothers." 

*******

#6
Podberyozkin Campaigns for Votes in Silence: Russian Election

Moscow, March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Following are descriptions of two
television campaign advertisements by Alexei Podberyozkin, one of 11
candidates running for the Russian presidency in Sunday's election.
Podberezkin is chairman of the Spiritual Heritage political group and
president of the Russian-American University Corp. He worked with Communist
Party leader Gennady Zyuganov's presidential campaign in 1996 before
splitting with the communists. 

Ad No. 1. Setting: 

Podberyozkin sits in silence. A church bell rings. A picture of an orthodox
cathedral appears in the right bottom corner. Then it ends. 

Ad No. 2. Setting: 

Podberyozkin sits in an armchair and in the background is a poster
depicting a page from an open religious book with the inscription:
``spirituality.'' 

Text: 

Podberyozkin speaks: ``Nowadays Russia is in a much deeper crisis then it
was 15 years ago. For this we should blame the political elites, which have
governed our country but failed to carry out any programs, even if they had
any. In order to improve the disastrous situation we have to determine our
interests, as well as Russia's place in the world. During the last 10
years, Russia's rulers exhausted domestic natural resources, weakened the
economy, cut off enormous territories, deprived people of the hope that
anything will ever be better. . . 

``Neither the democrats nor the communists coped with Russia's problems.
The point is that the Russian people should realize their interests, their
needs and tasks. 

``It is vital that Russia enters the next century without communists,
liberals and drugs!'' 

******

#7
Murmansk looks to new strong man: Putin
March 22, 2000
By Elizabeth Piper

MURMANSK, Russia (Reuters) - Alyosha looks out across the snowy tundra toward 
Russia's border, daring the West to try again to take this Arctic port. 

But for many in Murmansk, near the frontier with Norway and Finland, Alyosha, 
a towering giant of a stone soldier built to celebrate the city's survival 
against Hitler's Panzer divisions in World War II, is yesterday's strong man. 

Their hope now rests with Acting President Vladimir Putin. 

``We need a strong power,'' Igor Kovalev, chairman of the Murmansk region's 
health department, said, drawing on his pipe. ``Strong not in terms of a 
totalitarian leader but a strong state based on law.'' 

``Law is needed for all and I will vote for Putin,'' the young official said, 
showing he can recite some of Putin's election promises word-for-word. 

Murmansk, halfway between Moscow and the North Pole, is a place where the sun 
does not rise for two months of the year and radiation levels are read out on 
the radio along with the weather forecast. People here are unfazed by the 
endless nights and snow but cannot get used to the poverty and unemployment. 

``No one goes to see Alyosha, the pride has left this town,'' said Yura, 42, 
who says he is a trader dealing in food or ``anything I can get my hands on'' 
in Murmansk, where it is impossible to grow fruit or vegetables because of 
the cold. 

THINGS CAN'T GET WORSE IN MURMANSK 

``On May 9 (when Russians celebrate the end of World War II) Alyosha will be 
surrounded by police so that no one blows him up,'' Yura said of the statue, 
which also overlooks rows of crumbling apartment buildings where some of the 
balconies are dangling precariously from bits of rusty metal. 

``They last tried about 10 years ago. Why? God knows.'' 

Russia's acting president, whom many believe will romp home in Sunday's 
election, could change everything for the better. He has wooed Russian voters 
eager for stability and strength. 

``I think the situation should change for the better,'' Kovalev said. ``It's 
already getting better.'' 

Yura believes Putin, who took command after Boris Yeltsin's shock resignation 
on New Year's Eve, will go down in history as one of Russia's great strong 
men. 

``The (main) street used to be called Stalin Street, then Lenin, maybe next 
it will be called Yeltsin Street, actually I doubt it,'' he said, laughing. 
``But some day it will be called Putin Street following the tradition of 
strong leaders.'' 

Some in Murmansk are skeptical about Putin's swift rise to the top but most 
agree there is no alternative. They believe that Putin, who has a runaway 
lead in opinion polls against Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov and liberal 
Grigory Yavlinsky, could not do any worse than Yeltsin. 

``Everyone has left this place. After 20 years you get used to the snow but 
after more than 40 you still don't like it,'' Mikhail said as his car 
followed a plow down a steep slope. As the plow cut into more than two feet 
of snow, Mikhail's car slid down the icy hill. 

``Thousands have left, gone south. There's no jobs here, no money, no food, 
nothing. There's just snow. How could it be worse under Putin?'' he asked, 
eyeing the tundra. 

Many on the streets of Murmansk, the capital of the Kola peninsula, say 
Sunday's election is a foregone conclusion and ask why the other candidates 
are even running. 

``I don't know if I'll vote. We all know Putin will win,'' Yura said, echoing 
a sentiment that could jeopardize Putin's victory. If less than 50 percent of 
the electorate cast their ballots, the election would have to be held again. 

``Putin speaks well, he knows what to say. At least he can speak without 
having to look at the script,'' Yura said, referring to the aging Yeltsin's 
tendency to focus on his notes rather than looking at his listeners. 

PUTIN THE SEX SYMBOL 

Putin, a judo expert and dog lover, has also impressed women here, who have 
their first chance to admire a young leader. 

``You know for years I've been voting for Zyuganov and his men but they 
haven't done a thing. Maybe Putin will do something else,'' Tatyana said, 
serving beer to men lined up outside her small kiosk. ``He is a kind man and 
is really quite attractive,'' she said, laughing to show a row of gold teeth. 

She said her daughter, 16, likes to watch Putin on television and wants to 
meet the acting president. ``She says he's sexy,'' Tatyana said with a laugh. 

Putin has become Russia's most popular politician mainly because of his tough 
stance on breakaway Chechnya, vowing to wipe out the rebels and restore 
order. He has also said he wants Russia's far-flung regions to pull together 
-- a sentiment many in Murmansk support. 

``We are part of the whole but we have some independence,'' Kovalev said. 
``We need to develop our federal laws. We have to be a federal power so that 
not one region breaks away.'' 

For many in Murmansk, where in Soviet days residents received privileges for 
enduring the harsh climate to defend the motherland, Chechnya and what they 
call Moscow's political intrigues are a long way away. 

``We just want wages and decent work,'' Mikhail said. ``We're not lazy but 
there is no proper work here ... I had holidays, work, bread in the old days. 
I don't really care what happens in Chechnya and especially not in Moscow.'' 

Many will pay more attention to the regional election for governor, on the 
same day as the presidential poll. 

``Does Moscow care about us?'' Mikhail asked, saying the region could be 
rich if money did not trickle to the capital. But whether Moscow cares or 
not, the message is clear. 

``Everyone knows their place in Murmansk,'' Sergei said. ``Putin will do fine 
if he's strong, but also has to remember that we like it this way.'' 

******

#8
BBC MONITORING
RUSSIAN PAPER SAYS UNION OF RIGHT FORCES LIKELY TO SPLIT INTO TWO PARTIES
Source: `Nezavisimaya Gazeta', Moscow, in Russian 22 Mar 00 

At the 20th March session of the political council of the Union of Right
Forces [SPS], democrats were unable to reach a consensus on the main
question of the current moment in time: Who will become the right's common
candidate at the forthcoming Russian presidential elections.
Representatives of a number of parties belonging to the SPS bloc who had
earlier expressed their support for Samara governor Konstantin Titov did
not give way to pressure from Anatoliy Chubays and [Sergey] Kiriyenko, who
are urging all right-wingers to vote for Vladimir Putin... 

The arguments in the political council ended in a simple and radical
fashion: The SPS' leading body ceased to exist. So that this sensational
news should not look like an arbitrary decision, one of the right's leading
players, Anatoliy Chubays, stated that this step by no means signifies a
split; it is simply that the political council's powers expired as far back
as 19th December. However, at the same time Chubays did no explain why the
SPS's leading body lived on for another three months, discussing problems
and adopting resolutions on them. Konstantin Titov was more candid. Having
said that he does "not want a split", he effectively confirmed the
existence of irreconcilable contradictions in the democrats' camp.
Evidently, we should now expect the creation of two parties of a right-wing
orientation on the basis of the SPS bloc. Anatoliy Chubays has already
announced one of them, with the provisional name of the Union of Right
Forces - organizations wishing to join this structure should submit their
collective applications, and this party's constituent congress will be held
at the end of April. The other party will most likely unite the radical
democrats, who today support Konstantin Titov. 

However, the disagreements in the right-wing camp are not limited to the
personalities of Putin and Titov. As is well known, Boris Nemtsov and Irina
Khakamada have not stated their unequivocal support for the favourite in
the presidential race, while explaining that they are not in direct
opposition to Vladimir Putin. It is simply that they would like the
election to go into a second round and for the "dead cert" candidate to be
opposed not by Gennadiy Zyuganov, the perennial also-ran, but by Yabloko
leader Grigoriy Yavlinskiy. In their opinion, to wheel out the Communist
leader yet again is too expensive a luxury; whereas if Yavlinskiy polled a
larger number of votes than Zyuganov, it would attest to "Russia's final
recovery from communism". Let us remark, however, that Chubays and
Kiriyenko hope for a Putin victory already in the first round, although
they cannot be suspected of not desiring Russia's recovery. 

******

#9
BBC MONITORING
OFFICERS MAY SUE PAPER OVER ARTICLES ABOUT LAST YEAR'S BOMBINGS
Source: Russian Public TV, Moscow, in Russian 1800 gmt 22 Mar 00 

[Presenter] One more event is being recalled in the run-up to the
presidential elections. After the bombings of residential buildings in
Buynaksk, Moscow and Volgodonsk [last year], the incident in which bags
containing sugar were found in the basement of a multistorey building in
Ryazan caused serious panic. 

The special services announced on the following day that this was an
exercise. They apologized to the city residents for the inconvenience the
incident had caused. Those in opposition to the present authorities are now
trying to use this incident in their own interests. We have prepared a
special report for our audience on the making of this provocation. 

[Correspondent] On 22nd September 1999, in the basement of building 14/16
on Ulitsa Novoselov in Ryazan the local police found bags containing sugar.
A detonator was fixed to the bags, from which some wires were protruding.
The residents of building 14/16 and the adjacent buildings had to be
evacuated... 

The `Novaya Gazeta' newspaper has published several articles containing
accusations against the Federal Security Service. It alleged that what was
found in Ryazan was an explosive device and that it had probably been
planted by the staff of the Federal Security Service. Therefore, the
security service people were also responsible for the bombings in Moscow
and Volgodonsk. 

NTV Independent Television company invited inhabitants of the building to
take part in its programme called an independent investigation. During
their six-hour trip from Ryazan to Moscow the [Ryazan] residents were
subjected to some sort of explanatory work. Pressure was put on the Ryazan
residents. They were told to say what they were expected to say. In return
they were promised some financial assistance... 

`Novaya Gazeta' has recently published a new article. Correspondent Pavel
Voloshin found an Airborne Troops soldier who, the article alleged,
penetrated an arms depot he was supposed to be guarding at a military site.
He allegedly found sugar bags there and helped himself to what he thought
was sugar. However, he then realized that this was something else. He took
the bag to the commander of his platoon. The officer took the substance to
an expert in explosives. The expert said this was not sugar. This was
hexagen. 

Without bothering to check the information, obtain some comments or even
visit the regiment or the military site, the author of the article made up
the whole story. The paratroopers of the 137th regiment of the Airborne
Troops were among those involved in the preparation of an act of terrorism
in Ryazan. 

[Oleg Churilov, commander of 137th regiment of the Airborne Troops] The
tone of the article, let alone the allegations based on information which
has not been checked, was profoundly offensive. I decided to take action
and file a defamation suit in order to defend the honour and dignity of the
regiment and the Airborne Troops, including the honour and dignity of the
servicemen who are currently participating in the antiterrorist operation
[in the North Caucasus]. 

[Correspondent] Unlike the correspondent of `Novaya Gazeta' who never saw
the regiment's headquarters or the military site itself, we did visit it.
There are no depots there. We only saw run-down barracks and old containers
used for storing firearms. 

The commander of military site 714, Lt-Col Sergey Zagray, is also planning
to sue `Novaya Gazeta'. However, he may change his mind. On one condition. 

[Zagray] They still can save their newspaper's reputation. They must come
to my site promptly, before the case is considered by a court, and build
the depot they mentioned in the article. In this case I will withdraw my
complaint. 

[Correspondent] We also met the Airborne Troops soldier quoted in the
article. This is Aleksey Penyayev, a private of the 119th regiment of the
Airborne Troops. He did meet the journalist. The article that was published
put him in a state of shock. There was not one true word in it. 

[Soldier] At first he introduced himself as a close friend of a relative of
mine, who allegedly was a professor of Moscow State University. This is
nonsense. I do not have such relatives. After we made our acquaintance, he
said he was a correspondent. He showed me his newspaper's identification
card. 

[Correspondent] Did you check it? 

[Soldier] Yes. This was a small green card. It said `Novaya Gazeta`. 

[Correspondent] Aleksey refused to answer the correspondent's questions.
The latter never gave up. He decided to confuse the young man or just bribe
him. 

Aleksey was offered money and food for himself and his friends in return
for his saying he had done something he had not done. He was also promised
that he would not have to get involved. He was even promised that he would
not have to serve in the army any longer and that he would get help after
he was discharged. There was some bluffing. We know everything about
hexagen. You only have to confirm the report. 

[Soldier] They said we know everything what happened. We were already told
everything. We only need some confirmation. We need to know how the depot
was guarded. But there were no depots there. They said they wanted to know
how the depot was penetrated. 

[Correspondent] The article in `Novaya Gazeta' is lies and lies only. All
of it. So is the [NTV] programme on an independent investigation in which
people were not allowed to express their opinion... 

******

#10
The Electronic Telegraph (UK)
23 March 2000
[for personal use only]
Residents of 'bomb' flats are stars of poll drama
By Marcus Warren in Ryazan

THE closer Sunday's Russian elections approach, the deeper the residents of a 
tower block in the provincial city of Ryazan are dragged into the world of 
high politics and intrigue.

Last autumn, something strange happened at number 16/14 Novosyolov Street, a 
nondescript block of flats on the outskirts of the town, 120 miles south-east 
of Moscow. Depending on which account one believes, the building was the 
target of either a frighteningly realistic anti-terrorist drill, or was saved 
in the nick of time from a deadly bomb attack.

The incident came after a series of terrorist attacks on housing projects in 
which almost 300 Russians died. Two theories were advanced for the bombing 
campaign. Official Russia passed it off as a blood-curdling assault by 
Chechen killers. The Chechens, and some others, believe the bombs were a 
cynical ploy by the Russians to provide a justification for going to war in 
Chechnya.

The official version of the event in Ryazan on Sept 22, repeated at a Moscow 
press conference yesterday, was that it was an exercise to test local 
vigilance. But enough doubt remains to put the favourite to win the 
presidential elections, Vladimir Putin, and his supporters on the defensive 
over claims that agents of the state planted a live bomb in the basement.

Yesterday, Moscow sought to clarify its account of the incident after Mr 
Putin's opponents, desperate to land a few blows on the expected next 
president, staged a new offensive over the episode. The riddle is 
sufficiently compelling to ensure that local people's lives are constantly 
disrupted, with trips to Moscow to appear on television, questions asked in 
parliament and endless interviews by journalists.

Lyudmilla Kartofelnikov, confronted with another visitor, said: "Nothing 
happened for months and now the whole world seems to be knocking on our 
door." Mrs Kartofelnikov is used to stardom by now; her husband, Alexei, 
raised the alarm after seeing a car with suspicious number plates parked 
outside.

He noticed that the "62" which identified the car as locally registered was 
taped over a "77", the Moscow number, and contacted the police. But he is now 
convinced that it was an exercise. He said: "They were playing it up and 
doing everything they could to make someone notice."

If it was a drill, it was elaborately staged. The device contained 
"explosives", either genuine or made of sugar, depending on whom one 
believes. It also had a timer and detonator and it took police and security 
services by surprise. Even those residents who suspect that the security 
services were caught planting a real bomb said their fears would not change 
the way they voted.

The military offensive in the North Caucasus that followed the bombings was 
the start of the love affair between Mr Putin and the voters. But the efforts 
of the KGB's successor, the FSB, to blame the bombings on Chechens have been 
so clumsy they have raised more questions than they answer.

The idea that Mr Putin - a former KGB officer, once head of the FSB and prime 
minister at the time of the attacks - or some shadowy supporters might be 
linked to the bombs accords with his enemies' view of the man as sinister, 
secretive and amoral.

Last week, the anti-Putin opposition in the Duma, both Communist and liberal, 
called for a parliamentary inquiry into the incident. Putin loyalists voted 
it down. Mr Putin, his lead in the opinion polls apparently unassailable, has 
dismissed the idea that Russia's security services were responsible for the 
bomb attacks last autumn.

******

#11
RUSSIA: DEATH RATE ALMOST TWICE AS HIGH AS BIRTH RATE
Interfax 

Moscow, 22nd March: The death rate is almost twice as high as the birth
rate in Russia, according to figures published by the Russian State
Statistics Committee in the monthly report on the socioeconomic situation
in Russia on Wednesday [22nd March]. 

In January 2000, the number of deaths reached 195,500 and births 93,900
against, respectively, 178,200 and 94,500 in January 1999. 

So, as compared with January 1999, the number of deaths increased by 19,300
(10.8 per cent) and the number of births decreased by 600. 

The natural decrease in the population of Russia (the number by which
deaths exceed births) stood at 103,600 in January 2000, compared with
83,700 in January 1999, which means that this index grew by almost 23.8 per
cent (nearly a quarter). 

In January 2000, the number of marriages decreased by 5.1 per cent against
January 1999 (54,300 against 57,200) and the number of divorces increased
by 23.3 per cent from 36,000 to 44,400. 

*****

#12
From: pmah@online.ru (Peter Mahoney)
Subject: Re: 4187 Cisek/Wedel
Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2000 

I had to wait a day before attempting to respond to Dan Wisek's posting, in
order to overcome the strong impulse to match the condescending and
insulting tone he used to frame his remarks. I may or may not be successful.

On the other hand, I can't say that the tack he chose to take was entirely
unexpected. After all, capitalism is both an economic system and an
ideology. As an ideology, it has its own set of myths, those unassailable
canons that the true-believers hold sacred, and when some heretic has the
gall to actually question the very basis of those myths, he can surely
expect an hysterical response from the faithful. The fact that capitalism
-- under its more civilized pseudonym "market economy" -- seems to have
moved into the neighborhood of motherhood and apple pie as an unquestioned
universal good only makes the job of those of us yelling that the emperor
has no clothes all the more difficult. 

But yes, Mr. Cisek, there are still some of us out here who don't believe
that capitalism is God's gift to the human race, who believe that humans are
capable of finding a more efficient, more humane way to organize economic
life, and who have long since stopped believing in the basic goodness and
decency of American government action. I understand I'm treading on
hallowed ground here, and as such, have provoked the kind of strident
ideological name-calling the Mr. Cisek engages in, which attempts not so
much to answer the arguments but to marginalize the arguer. "Leftist
fringe" "loony left" "conspiracy theories" -- these are all classic
buzz-words designed to stifle debate by implying that certain ideas are
simply not worthy of consideration (Lord knows, I've been called a lot worse
than a loony lefty. Melancholy Marxist was one of my favorites. I like the
alliterative ring). As a tactic, it certainly has proved successful.
Notice how the "conspiracy theory" motif has subsequently pervaded the JRL
discussion of the topic, while comment or debate on many of the specific
points I raised in the piece has been sadly lacking.

Mr. Cisek goes one step further in this direction by sniff-nosingly
informing us that, in his opinion, if you haven't written a book or don't
have a string of academic alphabet soup after your name, your opinion
doesn't count with him. This type of elitist clap-trap pops up now and
again on JRL. DJ, to his everlasting credit, values the opinion of the
angry every man, and reserves a place for him at the JRL table.

Mr. Cisek starts off by quoting the sentence from Wedel's original piece
which I used as a basis for my argument, namely that some Russians believe
that the United States set out deliberately to destroy their economy. Cisek
notes in passing that Wedel presents no evidence to support this claim,
implying that it might actually not be true. If Mr. Cisek actually believes
this, then he is more out of touch with reality than I give him credit for. 

I contend that my argument is no conspiracy theory at all, but rather an
attempt to cut through some of the rhetorical subterfuge which surrounds
American foreign assistance efforts. Anyone who has the least familiarity
with American foreign assistance programs (I have worked in various
capacities as a USAID contractor in Russia for five years. I don't know if
this qualifies me as an expert in Mr. Cisek's eyes. Probably not), knows
that the fundamental basis of such programs is to promote and support
American foreign policy objectives. They are not do-gooder programs which
exist independently. American foreign policy towards the Soviet Union
during the Cold War period identified the USSR as a political and
ideological adversary, an enemy to be contained and defeated. It is no
great stretch of reality to contend that this "Cold War mentality" has
continued to pervade the outlook of a number of individuals and institutions
within the American foreign policy establishment, and subsequently to seep
into American foreign policy itself. I would contend that things like NATO
expansion and the moves to reduce or eliminate Russian influence and
potential economic benefits in the Caspian and Caucusus region are
extensions of Cold War containment policies. If American foreign policy
objectives are to continue to view Russia as a potential competitor and
enemy, then again, it is no great stretch of reality -- nor any kind of
loony left conspiracy theory -- to contend that American foreign assistance
programs to Russia would be designed to promote and support those objectives.

It is also fundamentally true that any country's foreign policy is
subordinated to the perceived self-interests of that country, and, as is
particularly the case with the United States, the pursuit of that
self-interest can often be decidedly at odds with the country's rhetorical
idealism. It is not a loony left conspiracy theory to contend that the
United States government perceives it to be in its self-interest to protect
and promote American business interests abroad, and that on a number of
occasions, the United States has engaged in some rather unsavory, decidedly
unidealistic, actions to that end. 

Is there someone out there who wants to deny that the US actively supported
dictatorships during the Cold War? Does someone want to deny that many of
these dictators actively cooperated with American business interests in the
rape of their own countries? Is there a denial of the fact that the United
States supported the overthrow of democratically elected governments when
those governments were perceived to be dangerous to American business
interests? C'mon, guys, tell me I'm wrong. Tell me the Shah didn't exist,
Marcos didn't exist, Somoza didn't exist, Diem didn't exist, Pinochet didn't
exist. Tell me South Korea didn't exist, Zaire didn't exist, Honduras
didn't exist, Guatamala didn't exist.

The answer to this will be, of course, that this is all ancient history, and
has nothing to do with Russia. But, in my view, it has everything to do
with Russia. It shows a consistent pattern of favoring capitalism over
democracy in American foreign policy, a pattern which is now being repeated
in Russia. And you want to convince me that it's all a big mistake. 

Mr. Cisek offers us the compelling insight that the world is complicated.
Well, at least there's one thing we agree on, but I would hasten to point
out that trying to paint the world in black and white is not the exclusive
purview of the left. I would contend that this black and white world view
has pervaded American foreign policy decision-making, and continues to do
so. Capitalism is good, communism is evil. That is the basic American
foreign policy construct which allowed the United States to perceive that
providing aid and support to the rogues' gallery mentioned above was in its
self-interest. It is the black and white construct which allows the United
States to view people like Chubais and Yeltsin as "good guys", simply
because they proclaim to be anti-communist. But, as Mr.Cisek rightly points
out, the world is a bit more complicated than that.

As to the specifics of the American assistance program in Russia, it is no
leftist distortion of reality to say that the program was lopsidedly
weighted in favor of "economic reform" over democratrization. The goal of
the program was to stamp out communism, and insert capitalism in its place.
Although there was lots of lofty rhetoric about establishing democracy, the
fact is that establishing democracy was always a secondary concern to
establishing capitalism, and that capitalism without democracy was, and is,
an acceptable alternative. Any reasonable reading of the situation in
Russia at the beginning of the US assistance effort, combined with an
unideological view of the nature of capitalism, could have easily predicted
the course of events which unfolded. Russia has absolutely no history of
democratic government. Russia has been a "clan state" as defined by Wedel
for a thousand years. The corrupt elite which had formerly ruled Russia
during the communist era was still largely entrenched, and had conveniently
changed its label to suit the new conditions. Enter capitalism. One of the
central flaws of the capitalism system is that it is not self-regulating.
Successful capitalism requires a significant amount of government
intervention, both to moderate the inevitable excesses that capitalist
competition engenders, and to provide the "social safety net" for the
inevitable losers that capitalist competition produces. Capitalism without
government regulation is like a hockey game without a referee. Everyone may
know the "rules", but there is no one to keep the biggest and baddest guys
on skates from ignoring the rules for their own advantage. Unfettered
capitalism is a breeding ground for corruption, and a killing field for
democracy. Promoting unfettered capitalism into a country with absolutely
no legal, social or governmental infrastructure to support it, with an
entrenched corrupt elite salivating at the possibilities such a situation
offered them, was guaranteed to produce the situation as it currently
exists. The idea that the form of market economy that currently exists in
Russia is some kind of unique Russian distortion is pure bunk. It is pure
capitalism in its most grotesque form.

Would a differently targeted assistance program -- one which spent its
hundreds of millions of dollars on democratization and civil society
building -- have made any difference, given the nature of the Russian
situation? Unfortunately, we'll never know for sure. Was this stupidity --
Cisek's good intentions, deeply flawed -- or deliberate consequence? It
could have been predicted, it wasn't; it could have been different, it
wasn't; it could have been changed, it wasn't. In my mind, that's not a
mistake.

******