January 5, 2000    
This Date's Issues: 4010 4011 4012

Johnson's Russia List
#4012
5 January 2000
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Reuters: Russia faces presidential poll on March 26.
2. Reuters: Points of new Russian presidential election law.
3. AFP: Yeltsin has big plans for future. (Dyachenko interview)
4. Christian Science Monitor: Fred Weir, Eager to put his stamp on Russia. Only days in power, Putin has pardoned Yeltsin, fired his daughter, and wants to move up elections. 
5. Reuters: Russian press weighs Yeltsin's vices and virtues.
6. DJ Peterson: capital flight/impact abroad.
7. The Guardian (UK): Ian Traynor, Business as usual for Kremlin cronies as Putin era begins.
8. International Herald Tribune: Flora Lewis, In Putin, the West Discovers a New Type of Russian.
9. Moscow Times: Yulia Latynina, 'Coup de Grace' May Yet Miss the Mark.
10. The Times (UK): Giles Whittell, Chechnya oil riches fuel war.
11. Christian Science Monitor: David Francis, Russia's growing health crisis.
12. Financial Times (UK): Wrestling with the past. Hopes are rising that Vladimir Putin can combine strong leadership of Russia with liberal economic reform, but the country's recent history is not on his side, says John Thornhill.]

*******

#1
Russia faces presidential poll on March 26
By Ron Popeski

MOSCOW, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Russia's parliament on Wednesday set March 26 as the date of an early presidential election in which Acting President Vladimir Putin is the clear frontrunner to replace Boris Yeltsin. 

Putin told reporters he wanted a clean election without mudslinging. 

The Federation Council upper house voted almost unanimously in favour of the date -- the last Sunday of Putin's three-month mandate which began with Yeltsin's surprise resignation last Friday. 

Putin, appointed Yeltsin's fifth prime minister in 17 months last August, remains both as premier and acting president during an abbreviated campaign. 

Putin, 47, has built high poll ratings on an uncompromising stand in the three-month-old military drive against Chechen separatists. His success at the polls will depend on good news being reported from the battle front. 

He is likely to face a challenge from the Communists, which won the largest number of seats in last month's general elections, and from both liberals and nationalists. 

But with his public opinion ratings outdistancing those of any potential rivals, Putin's position looks solid. 

The acting president, pointedly portraying himself as above the election fray, called for a campaign free of the dirty tricks which riddled last month's general election. 

``We must take all necessary measures for the campaign to be conducted exclusively within the boundaries of the law, utterly clean, without any mudslinging, and aimed at one thing -- creating equal conditions for all participants,'' he told reporters after meeting heads of rival political parties. 

``This will not only bring the most positive possible result, but will also help consoilidate society.'' 

Putin had earlier met his military and security chiefs and other senior ministers, with discussions focusing on developments in the North Caucausus -- in and around Chechnya. 


The Russian forces and rebel fighters both reported successes on two fronts, the Chechen capital Grozny and the southern mountains, presenting contradictory pictures of fighting which has trapped thousands of civilians in Grozny. 

ELECTION CHIEF SAYS CAMPAIGN TO OPEN THURSDAY 

The head of Russia's Central Election Commission, Alexander Veshnyakov, said setting the date meant the campaign could be declared open on Thursday. Candidates would have until February 13 to gather the 500,000 signatures required to register. 

Russian news agencies said other leading politicians had suggested after the parliamentary meeting with Putin that they, too, could enter the race. 

These included Communist Party chief Gennady Zyuganov, defeated by Yeltsin in the 1996 presidential election, economist Grigory Yavlinsky of the liberal Yabloko party and nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky. 

Left-wing parties could yet agree on backing another candidate in place of Zyuganov. One potential candidate to fill this role is former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov. 

The deputy head of Putin's staff, Igor Shabdurasulov, speaking before the announcement, said again he was confident Putin would win easily. He said it would be better for Russia if he won more than 50 percent of votes in the first round, making a second round runoff unnecessary. 

``This would be preferable,'' Itar-Tass quoted him as telling reporters. ``It would mean spending less time on the election campaign, finishing it sooner and getting down to work in a new legitimate capacity.'' 

Putin, he said, was unlikely to do any fervent campaigning. 

``His activity as prime minister and acting president should be sufficient for conducting an election campaign,'' he was quoted as saying. ``There is no point in any excesses.'' 

The acting president was later due to see off Yeltsin on a journey to the Holy Land and Christ's birthplace, Bethlehem. 

Yeltsin, 68, will be accorded the honours of a serving head of state during a three-day visit to mark Orthodox Christmas. 

Yeltsin's daughter Tatyana Dyachenko, the former president's image maker, told a Russian newspaper her father planned to create a foundation and travel the world. This would mean following in the footsteps of his old rival, Mikhail Gorbachev. 

*******

#2
Points of new Russian presidential election law

MOSCOW, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Russia's upper chamber of parliament, the Federation Council, decided on Wednesday an early presidential election should be held on March 26. 

Under Russia's constitution, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin became acting president following President Boris Yeltsin's shock resignation on December 31. 

One of Yeltsin's last acts in office was to sign a new law governing presidential elections, passed earlier this month by parliament. Following is a list of points of that new law which covers an early election: 

To be registered, candidates must be nominated by a group of no fewer than 100 people, or by a political party or group registered with the Justice Ministry no earlier than one year before the vote. They may form electoral blocs. 


A candidate may run on only one ticket. 

A candidate must declare whether he or she has been convicted of a crime or has citizenship of a foreign state. 

Candidates must declare the size and source of all income they, their spouses and children received during the previous two years, as well as all property they own. 

Candidates must collect 500,000 signatures. The election commission will verify 20 percent and if more than 15 percent of those are not genuine, the candidate is disqualified. 

A candidate may start campaigning only after his or her registration by the Central Electoral Commission. 

Strict limits are set on campaigning in the media, which can begin on television only 30 days before the election, and in print only 40 days before the vote. All campaigning must stop one day before the poll. 

Publication of opinion polls is banned three days before the election. 

State bodies are banned from campaigning. 

Voting starts at 8 a.m. local time and ends at 8 p.m. 

The election is declared valid if more than 50 percent of registered voters take part. 

The election is declared invalid if more people choose ``none of the above'' on the list of candidates than there are votes for the winning candidate. 

A candidate must win more than 50 percent of votes cast to be declared the winner in the first round. 

If no candidate wins in the first round, the two leading candidates face a runoff, held three weeks after the first round. 

In a second round there is no requirement for 50 percent of registered voters to take part. 

The elected president takes office on the 30th day after the election result is officially published. 


*******

#3
Yeltsin has big plans for future

MOSCOW, Jan 5 (AFP) - 
Boris Yeltsin has some free time. But his daughter says the former Russian president has ambitious plans for filling it up, including creating a foundation in his name and travelling the world.

"Papa now plans to set up his foundation," Tatyana Dyachenko said in an interview published Wednesday on the front page of the business daily Kommersant.

"It will have a library and archives. I will help him," she said, adding that two other former top Yeltsin aides would also be involved in the project.

Dyachenko, who was relieved of her Kremlin post on Monday by acting President Vladimir Putin, said she was kept in the dark about her father's shock resignation plan until the very last.

"It became clear about a month ago that he was planning something. I think papa made his final decision following his visit to China" late last year, she said.

The 39-year-old Dyachenko, the youngest of Yeltsin's two daughters, was regarded as perhaps the closest confidante of her father and a key member of "The Family" of influential business and political leaders operating behind the scenes at the Kremlin.

She said her 68-year-old father, scheduled to depart Wednesday for Israel to join in celebrations of the Orthodox Christmas, was doing "very well" after resigning and had one of his best New Year's holidays in years.

"I haven't seen him like this in a long time," she said. "We had such a good New Year's celebration, better than we've had in a long time."


Her father, she said, had long ago expressed a desire to travel the world and that is one of the things he now plans to do. "We wanted to go to England and France, for example."

"He has seen practically nothing," Dyachenko explained. "I ask him sometimes if he remembers how we saw something somewhere. He answers: 'No, I don't remember.' And how could he have seen anything when he was always looking out the window of a car?"

Yeltsin, whom the Kremlin advises journalists to refer to as "the first president" and not "the former president," plans to remain active in Russian politics and will probably retain a Kremlin office, another newspaper said.

"It has effectively been already decided that he will have a working office in one of the buildings in the Kremlin where he can come and where everything will be equipped for work," a spokesman quoted by The Moscow Times said.

******

#4
Christian Science Monitor
5 January 2000
Eager to put his stamp on Russia
Only days in power, Putin has pardoned Yeltsin, fired his daughter, and wants 
to move up elections. 
By Fred Weir

From hard-line nationalists to Western-leaning liberals, just about everyone 
across Russia's fractious political spectrum is claiming Acting President 
Vladimir Putin as one of their own. But the available evidence suggests that 
Mr. Putin is with all, and none of them. He is a man with a mission almost as 
old as Russian statehood. 

He is also apparently in a hurry. Though Putin has granted Boris Yeltsin 
immunity from prosecution and allowed him to keep an office in the Kremlin 
following Mr. Yeltsin's sudden resignation on Dec. 31, Putin swiftly fired 
the former president's daughter and chief imagemaker Tatyana Dyachenko. The 
move suggests he is impatient to put distance between himself and the 
corruption-stained, unpopular Yeltsin regime, especially the close circle of 
Kremlin advisers known as the "Family." 

According to the head of Russia's Constitutional Court, Putin may also ask 
the upper house of parliament to move up presidential elections slated for 
the end of March. Most analysts agree that the sooner the vote is held, the 
better Putin's chances of being elected. And the tough-talking former spy 
needs a direct mandate before he embarks on any sweeping program of change. 

The goal of radical Kremlin leaders from Peter the Great to Mikhail Gorbachev 
was to modernize a backward, sluggish society by absorbing Western technology 
and managerial methods, but without relinquishing political control. "It will 
not happen soon, if ever, that Russia will become like the US or Britain, 
where liberal values have long historic traditions," Putin wrote in his only 
known political manifesto, published last week on a government Web site 
(www.pravitelstvo.gov.ru/english/). "For Russia, a strong state is not an 
anomaly which should be got rid of. Quite the contrary, Russians see it as a 
source and guarantor of order and the initiator and main driving force of any 
change." 

Putin was schooled as an agent of the Soviet KGB in the 1970s, a time when 
cynicism and economic stagnation were rotting the Soviet Union's foundations. 

Analysts say his political mentor was Yuri Andropov, the forward-thinking 
spymaster who rose to rule the country for nine months in 1982. Mr. Andropov 
tried to use KGB experts, who understood the country's dire situation better 
than anyone else, to implement reforms based on tougher workplace discipline 
as well as imported - often stolen - Western technology and expertise. 

'Putin is a man of the Andropov generation, which means he believes in the 
guiding role of an elite of professional and pragmatic experts who wield 
state power for the good of the nation," says Vladimir Petukhov, an analyst 
with the Institute for Social and National Problems in Moscow. "This is the 
most essential fact about him." 

Andropov died before his reforms took hold, but in 1985 Mikhail Gorbachev 
attempted to continue them. The early years of Mr. Gorbachev's term in power 
were marked by a draco- nian antidrinking campaign and efforts to 
"accelerate" industrial production by toughening penalties for laziness and 
negligence. Mr. Gorbachev soon decided Andropov-style reforms, based on 
tightening the screws, would not work. He expanded his program to include 
democratization of society and increased openness in the media. 

But many Russians have come to believe that Gorbachev opened the door to 
anarchy. "Russia has exhausted its limit for political and socio-economic 
upheavals, cataclysms and radical reforms," Putin writes on the Kremlin Web 
site. "Every country, Russia included, must find its own path of renewal." 

Mr. Putin went on to argue that Russia needs to combine the advantages of 
democracy and market economics with the country's own state-oriented 
traditions. "It is a fact that corporative forms of activity have always 
prevailed over individualism. Paternalistic sentiments have struck deep roots 
in Russian society." 

Less than a week in power, he is already demonstrating how this traditional 
Russian approach works. In a meeting Jan. 3 with utility executives to deal 
with the severe energy shortages in some regions, Putin told them to "stop 
complaining and go out and find the gas for the country immediately." 
Otherwise, he reminded them, "We can put you in jail." 

But the brutal war in Chechnya, which Putin seems determined to win 
regardless of human cost or criticism from the West, would seem his clearest 
practical policy statement to date. 

"In Chechnya, Putin has shown he is ready to sacrifice thousands of soldiers 
and tens of thousands of civilians to achieve his political goals," says 
Andrei Piontkovsky, director of the Centre for Strategic Studies, an 
independent Moscow think tank. 

"That's enough to know about his style to make one very, very alarmed about 
Russia's future under his rule." 

*******

#5
Russian press weighs Yeltsin's vices and virtues
By Andrei Shukshin

MOSCOW, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Four days after Boris Yeltsin stunned everyone by prematurely stepping down as president, Russian newspapers tried on Wednesday to strike a balance between the good and the bad in his eight-year rule. 


``Yeltsin the Great and Yeltsin the Terrible,'' ran the headline in the economic daily Vremya MN, typical of most newspapers devoting several pages to Yeltsin's departure. 

Due to New Year holidays, Wednesday's newspapers were the first to appear since Yeltsin cut short his term on New Year's Eve and handed his powers to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. 

Many expressed surprise that Yeltsin's move was possible in view of his unpredictability and reputation as a ``power addict.'' 

``The first and only president of Russia,'' Izvestia dubbed Yeltsin, adding that his personality allowed the antiquated state machine to limp into a new post-communist democratic era. 

``The first president of Russia had a unique character and personality, which allowed him to make the unruly and unbalanced system function without hitches,'' it said. 

``He worked out the rules of the game and mindfully stuck to them, entering history books as the creator of a democratic system in a country which had never known anything like it.'' 

``All these years, with the perseverence of a neophyte, Yeltsin remained faithful to the three foundations of 'new Russia' -- ``democracy, the market economy and freedom of speech,'' said Vremya MN. 

``He proved that to achieve them he was ready to sacrifice much more than his life -- his power.'' 

YELTSIN -- COMPARABLE TO DENG XIAOPING 

The weekly Moskovskiye Novosti said Yeltsin could be considered one of the great statesmen of the century. 

``Despite some dreadful mistakes...it is evident that on December 31, 1999 the world political arena said goodbye to a giant comparable among the leaders of the end of this century only to (Chinese leader) Deng Xiaoping,'' it said. 

But the papers noted Yeltsin's less likeable traits, some from his past as a construction manager and Communist party boss. 

``Yeltsin's famous style of leadership bordered on mediaeval perfidy and his fresh approach on foolishness, while his imperturbable nature was much like that of a tyrant,'' said Vremya MN. 

Moskovskiye Novosti recalled Yeltsin's tendency to exercise authority by sacking top officials.It calculated that in eight years Yeltsin had seven prime ministers, six prosecutors general, seven heads of the security police, nine finance ministers, six interior ministers and three foreign ministers. 

The liberal daily Sevodnya said Yeltsin's often erratic policies reflected his frustration at not being able to achieve quickly the goals he had set for himself. 

``He himself believed that, having shed the shackles of the 'grey, stagnating, totalitarian past'...the new democratic Russia would ``leap into a bright, affluent and civilised future,''' it said, quoting from Yeltsin's farewell address. 

The mass-circulation Komsomolskaya Pravda refused to believe Yeltsin had left the political scene for good. 

``Yeltsin has not given up his power,'' it said. 

``He passed it on, and now is standing behind the throne, so close that the acting president (Putin) felt him breathing down his neck as he addressed Russians on New Year's Eve. And from now on it will probably be so all the time.'' 


*******

#6
Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2000 
From: DJ Peterson <djp@rand.org>
Subject: Re. capital flight/impact abroad

Re: Frank Durgin's query (JRL 4003) about where the estimated
$150 billion in capital that has flowed out of Russia went and whether
it played a sigificant role in fueling the Wall Street Boom.

I imagine prudent Russians have chosen to invest abroad in a diverse
portfolio of stocks, bonds, real estate, business ventures, etc. spread
across a range of countries—US, UK, Switzerland, Israel, Cyprus...and
probably back to Russia. That said, Russian flight capital could not
drive the Wall Street Boom. IBM alone has a market cap. of about $200
billion while the US asset-fund market is about $6400 billion strong.
I find Russia's role in the world economy to be consistantly
overrated: Its total exports in 1998 amounted to $74 billion (1999
performance is down a bit) or about 1.4% share of the world total,
putting Russia—despite its natural resource wealth—in league with
Malaysia.

*******

#7
The Guardian (UK)
5 January 2000
[for personal use only]
Business as usual for Kremlin cronies as Putin era begins 
Ian Traynor in Moscow

In his first interview since becoming Russia's acting president, Vladimir 
Putin last night said that it was hard for Boris Yeltsin to leave the Kremlin 
on New Year's Eve because there was so much "linking him to the people who 
work there". 

Mr Putin may have been displaying a well-hidden talent for irony because for 
any Russian, the remark was double-edged. The Yeltsin "family" which has been 
running the Kremlin and Russia for years has given politics a bad name. 

It is a powerful network of cronies, relatives, business associates, and 
sycophants, notorious for its byzantine, ruthless and, it is alleged, corrupt 
ways. 

Mr Yeltsin found it sad to leave, Mr Putin said, "because there is so much 
that links him with these walls, these rooms, these buildings". Not least 
among the many qualities that make up Mr Putin's appeal to Russians is his 
image as a Mr Clean. But he himself emerged from the Yeltsin inner circle. 

Moscow analysts are speculating madly about what will become of the Yeltsin 
courtiers now that the Tsar has gone. Are they safe with Mr Putin? 

"He's their man," said Mikhail Gorbachev, the last president of the Soviet 
Union. "The regime won't change, there won't be a fight against corruption. 
The interests and the privileges of the oligarchy will be fully protected." 

As Mr Yeltsin's bitter enemy, Mr Gorbachev is jaundiced, but there is little 
Mr Putin does not know about the family. 

Before becoming prime minister he spent 17 years in the KGB, two years in the 
Kremlin administration and a year as head of the FSB - successor to the KGB. 
There can be few figures in Russia as well-informed about the foibles of the 
Yeltsin entourage. 

Prominent members of the family have been cock-a-hoop at the Putin takeover, 
suggesting that they have nothing to fear. Anatoly Chubais, the former 
Yeltsin chief of staff, said Mr Yeltsin's resignation was a stroke of genius. 


But Mr Putin has swiftly removed Tatyana Dyachenko, Mr Yeltsin's daughter, 
who has been highly influential in the Kremlin for years. The official 
position of Mrs Dyachenko, 39, was "image adviser" to the president, but she 
served as a political aide and also controlled access to Mr Yeltsin. 

It was signalled on Friday that she would not keep her post and it was made 
official on Monday, even though Mr Putin is said to have a good relationship 
with her. 

Mr Putin has also brought in his own spokesman, but the man he replaced, 
Dmitri Yakushkin, keeps a job in the administration. Another two Yeltsin 
aides will retain jobs with the ex-president. 

As soon as Mr Yeltsin resigned on Friday, his chief of staff, Alexander 
Voloshin, also stepped down. He was immediately reinstated by Mr Putin in 
what appeared to be part of a handover deal. The staff changes, a Kremlin 
aide told the Interfax news agency, do not signal "a new broom". 

Mr Putin's first act as acting president last Friday was to sign a decree 
guaranteeing Mr Yeltsin immunity from prosecution. The reaction to this in 
Moscow was that there can be no smoke without fire - that if Mr Yeltsin had 
nothing to hide, he would not need to be immune from prosecution. 

It is a very detailed and legalistic decree. Not only is Mr Yeltsin immune 
from prosecution, so are all members of his immediate family. The Yeltsin 
homes, offices, and cars cannot be searched. His correspondence cannot be 
tampered with. His phones cannot be tapped. Moreover, all members of his 
family, not just his wife Naina, will receive pensions on his death. 

For now, it appears that the Yeltsin clan is safe, although Mr Putin may 
launch a law and order crackdown to buttress his public support. 

But if he is to reject the sleaze which many Russian believe had infested the 
Yeltsin camp, he is unlikely to do so before the presidential election, 
expected in March. 
*******

#8
International Herald Tribune
5 January 2000
[for personal use only]
In Putin, the West Discovers a New Type of Russian 
By Flora Lewis 

PARIS - Vladimir Putin sounded as though he were as surprised as everybody 
else to be addressing his country on New Year's Eve as its new president, ad 
interim. Elections, which had been due in June, have been moved forward to 
March 26, and as head of the government conducting them, he will have an 
important head start on rival candidates.

Furthermore, his popularity as the tough leader in the war against rebellious 
Chechens, always called ''the terrorists'' by Moscow, and his success in 
parliamentary elections make him likely to become the Russian Federation's 
second elected president. Boris Yeltsin, who dissolved the Soviet Union, 
served not quite two terms and suddenly quit, saying it was time to make way 
for a new generation in power.

Mr. Putin was obviously aware that he was running as Mr. Yeltsin's successor. 
On Dec. 29, he published an 11-page statement of his policies and his views. 
Russian TV has been going out of its way to show not only the pale, 
frozen-faced prime minister named by Mr. Yeltsin last August but a nimble 
athlete winning at judo, a visitor to the war front, and other campaign 

photo-ops.

Moscow has not explained yet why the resignation and election were 
accelerated. It may be that Mr. Yeltsin's precarious health was judged too 
fragile for him to risk continuing. But Western experts consider it more 
likely that a deal has now been sealed guaranteeing legal protection to Mr. 
Yeltsin and his clan. The new Duma majority can be expected to respect Mr. 
Putin's bargain. Boris Berezovsky, the ''oligarch'' closest to Mr. Yeltsin, 
already gained immunity for himself by winning a seat in the Parliament, but 
the ex-president, relatives and members of what is called his official 
''family'' could be targeted for prosecution for theft of state assets. Mr. 
Putin has announced that they will be assured ''security and immunity.'' 

The new leader was almost unknown when Mr. Yeltsin chose him as the fifth 
prime minister in little more than a year. He is only 47 and most of his 
career has been as a KGB agent, with long service in East Germany. However, 
he surfaced in the early 1990s as an active aide to Anatoli Sobchak, the 
reformist mayor of what was then still Leningrad and is once again St. 
Petersburg. A Western banker who worked with him then said he was extremely 
efficient, probably as ruthless as he looks, and well-informed.

It is important to Russia-watchers to hear that Mr. Putin now has among his 
supporters such early and confirmed reformers as Yegor Gaidar, Anatoli 
Chubais and Boris Nemtsov. His new declaration makes clear he is determined 
to proceed with market reforms, to sustain democracy, and to revive Russia 
without resort to further ''experiments,'' ''radicalism'' or calls to 
''revolutionary extremism.''

It is a remarkable document, aimed primarily at the domestic audience but 
attempting to find a balance with appeals to foreign capital, whose 
investments he said were indispensable to lift Russia from mounting economic 
disaster. He spoke of the ''outrageous price our country and its people had 
to pay'' for Bolshevism and called it a ''road to a dead end.''

Even more unusual, he blamed Russia's continued, painful decline since the 
end of communism on ''our mistakes and miscalculations,'' not on anybody 
else's interference or lack of aid. The country needs a long-term strategy of 
''market and democratic reforms implemented only by evolutionary, gradual and 
prudent methods,'' he said. ''Everything depends on us, and us alone, on our 
ability to see the size of the threat, to pool forces and set our minds to 
hard and lengthy work.''

No populism here, if anything more the bite of Winston Churchill's ''blood, 
sweat and tears'' than the exuberance of Nikita Khrushchev's taunt to the 
West barely two generations ago that ''We will bury you.'' Mr. Putin provided 
a long series of statistics to show that Russia is not only economically 
backward but slipping further behind.

There is no mention of Chechnya, of the role of the military, or foreign 
policy except for the need to become competitive in the world market system, 
nothing confrontational. But there is an emphasis on patriotism, the special 
Russian need for a ''strong state'' and the importance of combining 

''universal'' and ''traditional'' Russian values.

It is essentially a campaign platform, but a sober one, without extravagant 
promises, and at the same time a careful attempt to reassure foreign leaders. 
There will be a test of practical intentions in the near future, when Finance 
Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, reconfirmed in his post, has to present Moscow's 
plan for dealing with its huge foreign debt. Good relations, and more money, 
will require both an offer to compromise and a sense of law and stability. 
The problem, a Western expert said, is ''to beg successfully without looking 
like a beggar at home.'' 

The document shows how Mr. Putin has analyzed Russia's distress and what he 
would like to do. What he can achieve and how he will react to frustration, 
which can come soon in Chechnya, is something else. He is clearly cool and 
calculating, tough and glad to be seen as tough, and yet seeking to sound 
lyrical with his New Year's wishes that ''everything good and kind which has 
been dreamt of will definitely come true.'' 
This is another kind of Russian than the West has known, another generation, 
and yet still enigmatic. We'll have to wait and see.

******

#9
Moscow Times
January 5, 2000 
INSIDE RUSSIA: 'Coup de Grace' May Yet Miss the Mark 
By Yulia Latynina 

The president's New Year's gift has delivered the coup de grace to an 
opposition already scattered by the Kremlin's triumph in the State Duma 
elections. Even anti-Kremlin television channels hurried to agree that acting 
President Vladimir Putin's victory in the coming presidential elections was 
as inevitable as a sunrise. 

The exquisite timing of the move also meant that Putin was imprinted on every 
Russian's mind as the New Year's president who gave the traditional 
pre-midnight speech. The opposition leaders' absence - only Moscow Mayor 
Luzhkov was anywhere near a TV camera - gave the Kremlin a few days of 
informational monopoly. 

The present environment favors the Kremlin not only in a patriotic, but also 
in an economic sense. The average voter supports the successful operation in 
Chechnya. He is also pleased with the growth in production and the fact that 
pensions are being paid. 

By June this situation could have been reversed. First of all, the war in 
Chechnya cannot be won completely. After four or five months, continuous 
reports about how the fighters hiding out in the mountains are "about" to be 
liquidated will start to grate. The economic side of this coin is even more 
dangerous. Putin's economic policies - export tariffs on oil and gas, a 
sudden growth in tax rates - will inevitably devour the positive effects of 
the ruble devaluation and end production growth in the next few months. 

However, matters could still sour before the new elections. 

By voluntarily resigning, President Boris Yeltsin created the possibility for 
a new political crisis. Should the Duma vote no confidence in the government 
now, then Putin would have to resign - as a prime minister and as the acting 
president, since he became acting president because he was prime minister. It 
is unclear what would happen then, but a full-blown constitutional crisis 

would mean chaos - which may well be the only thing that could knock Putin 
off his perch. 

And such a turn of events is more than mere speculation. As far as I am 
aware, it is very actively being worked out by the leaders of Fatherland, the 
Communist Party and Yabloko - if not as a realistic political scenario, then 
as an effective blackmailing instrument. At the first meeting of the new 
Duma, we will hear Gennady Zyuganov and Grigory Yavlinsky talk how the 
Chechen war is going nowhere and the government lacks an economic program. 

Yulia Latynina writes for Segodnya. 

******

#10
The Times (UK)
5 January 2000
[for personal use only]
Chechnya oil riches fuel war
FROM GILES WHITTELL IN MOSCOW
IN THE chaos of the Chechnya war, one image stands out as a sign of why both 
sides are losing - that of the rebel who has run out of petrol for his Jeep, 
dashing between dugouts on a bicycle. 

This is an old-fashioned war, for Chechen independence and Russian 
self-esteem, but also a more modern one, for oil. Grozny's dwindling supplies 
will please Russia's generals, but for Kremlin strategists they are a 
reminder that Moscow's long-term goal of dominating the Caspian basin and its 
vast oil and gas reserves is as elusive as ever. 

Before the 1994-96 war, Grozny's network of refineries made it the second 
biggest oil city in the region after Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. 
Geologists said up to 200 billion barrels lay beneath the Caspian, and there 
was every sign that Moscow would retain a leading role in the lucrative 
business of selling it. The Russian pipeline which pumped 100,000 barrels of 
crude a day to the Black Sea has been closed since summer. 

Behind the rhetoric of an "anti-terrorist operation", it is clear that Moscow 
launched this war partly to keep a toehold in what may be the world's richest 
oil region outside the Middle East. 

Yet as a policy initiative it has failed: the fighting has boosted two huge 
US-backed schemes to build pipelines through the Caucasus to Turkey, while a 
new Russian one that bypasses Chechnya may have nothing to pump when 
completed. 

In an important sense Russia lost the first decisive battle of the war last 
month in Istanbul. After President Yeltsin's abrupt return to Moscow from the 
OSCE summit, Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and the US signed a treaty paving 
the way for a $2.4 billion (£1.48 billion) oil pipeline from Baku to the 
Turkish port of Ceyhan. An American spokesman called the project part of "the 
strategic vision of new Eurasian co-operation". This is widely seen as code 
for an American policy of curbing Russia's role in the Caucasus. 

Moscow lashed out at Washington for its "meddlesome role" in the Caucasus. 
The State Department professed bewilderment, but experts talk bluntly of an 
all-out race for Caspian dominance that America appears to be winning. The 
opening of a pipeline across Georgia to the Black Sea in April was its first 
victory. 
*******

#11
Christian Science Monitor
5 January 2000
Russia's growing health crisis
By DAVID R. FRANCIS
David R. Francis is senior economic correspondent for the Monitor. 

Many know about Africa's severe health problems, but few are aware of a 
parallel tragedy building in Russia. 

Devastated by disease and alcoholism, mortality rates have risen dramatically 
since the fall of communism. Furthermore, very little is being done either by 
the Russian government or the world community. 

At the moment, deaths exceed births by about 700,000 a year. Some experts say 
Russia's population could drop to 80 million in 50 years from 150 million 
today. 

"The loss of life from this quiet crisis in Russia has been a catastrophe of 
historic proportions," says Nicholas Eberstadt, a scholar at the American 
Enterprise Institute in Washington. "Mortality and disease will pose major 
obstacles to economic development ... for decades to come." 

"If demography is said to be destiny, the destiny of Russia for the next 50 
years or more is appalling," says Murray Feshbach, a research professor at 
Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service in Washington. 

These grim views are based on economic, health, and demographic trends in 
Russia since the fall of communism, and no rapid way out of the disaster is 
easily visible. One hopes these views will serve as warnings. Will Russian 
politicians and citizens, seeing the flashing red lights of danger, change 
direction and break through the damaging fog of alcoholism, sexually 
transmitted diseases, sharing of drug needles, and corruption? 

Already the breakup of the Soviet Union has greatly diminished Russia's 
might. "In barely a decade, Moscow has plummeted from the status of an 
imperial superpower to a condition of astonishing geopolitical weakness," 
notes Mr. Eberstadt in Policy Review, a Heritage Foundation publication. 
Furthermore, Russia's gross domestic product halved in the 1990s. 

So far Russia hasn't adequately tackled its catastrophic health scene - nor 
does it appear to be a matter of public concern. 

While there are more than a dozen political parties fighting for votes this 
election season, none has chosen to make public health a major campaign 
issue. It wasn't mentioned much in the recent parliamentary elections. 

Nor are many Russian citizens, perhaps unused to participatory democracy, 
organizing a push for improved spending programs for health or demanding 
temperance measures. 

The Soviet Union was infamous for its staggering vodka consumption. 
Contemporary Russia's thirst for vodka has gotten worse. Russian men on 
average are drinking about five bottles of vodka per week. 

The World Health Organization (WHO) stipulates that eight liters of alcohol 
per capita is the upper limit for consumption before major health problems 
ensue. Russians - adults and children alike - consume 14 to 15 liters per 
capita per year. And Vodka output rose 65 percent in the first half of 1999. 

In effect, many Russians are drinking themselves to death. 

More than 35,000 people died from accidental alcohol poisoning in 1996. In 
fact, daily headlines in Moscow during the winter include body counts of the 
inebriated people who died of exposure. In the United States, which has 
almost twice the population, about 300 a year die from the same cause. 

Drinking is behind many of the violent and accidental deaths in Russia. 
According to Eberstadt, with the present pattern, a baby boy stands almost a 
1 in 4 probability of dying from some sort of external trauma. That compares 
with about 1 in 30 in Britain. Russian women are twice as likely to die from 
alcohol poisoning or injury as American men. Alcohol abuse, Eberstadt 
figures, also plays a role in high rates of coronary disease and other fatal 
diseases. 

Russians are also heavy tobacco users. Two-thirds of men and one-third of 
women smoke. Medical authorities say smoking accounts for 20 to 30 percent of 
deaths from heart disease and cancer. And Russian death rates from these 
diseases are twice those in the US. 

Feshbach further sees a rapid spread of drug-resistant tuberculosis, AIDS, 
and other sexually-transmitted disease in Russia. One study predicts some 13 
million Russians will be infected by HIV by 2005. 

"This is getting close to Africa," Feshbach says. Eberstadt doesn't regard 
the AIDS problem as being so severe, but he does find the breakout of AIDS 
surprising in an industrial country with an educated population. 

So what is to be done? 

Teresa Ho, manager of the World Bank's health programs in Russia, says 
Feshbach's terrible predictions of diseases will come fully true only if 
nothing is done. And that's not entirely the case. 

Russia's health ministry itself is experimenting with more modern hospital 
practices to make more-efficient use of public-health funds and thus provide 
services to more people. 

The World Bank is considering a $150 million loan for a program to deal with 
AIDS and tuberculosis. WHO, other UN organizations, the Soros Foundation, and 
the US and other nations are trying to help in modest ways. 

Eberstadt emphasizes the need for a determination within the Russian public 
and political scene to pay more attention to the catastrophe. Public 
attitudes toward healthy behavior must change. 

A transition to a civil society under the rule of law "would have a positive 
and tangible effect on Russian health," he says. It could encourage business 
and reduce the poverty behind some of the health problems. 

Mikhail Gorbachev took measures to restrain alcohol consumption during his 
1980s presidency. Death rates declined. But the measure was a disaster from a 
political standpoint. No political leader has since dared to challenge 
Russia's drinking binge. 

"The leadership remains relatively silent," notes Ms. Ho. There is no 
organized campaign to spread "healthy life styles" among Russians. 

Without rapid policy measures, Russia's population will drop 45 percent in 50 
years - the same period in which US population is expected to rise 45 
percent, from 272 million to 393 million. Russia ranks 125th in average life 
expectancy among 188 nations studied by the UN. 

The ultimate effect of inaction is captured in a chilling question posed by 
Eberstadt: Will Russia be "too sick to matter" in world affairs? 

A Harvard University expert on Russia, Graham Allison, argues that the health 
crisis in Russia with its 30,000 nuclear weapons makes it even more important 

for the West to provide help to the troubled nation. "It is Russia's weakness 
that is the greater danger to America." 

*******

#12
Financial Times (UK)
5 January 2000
[for personal use only]
RUSSIA: Wrestling with the past 
Hopes are rising that Vladimir Putin can combine strong leadership of Russia 
with liberal economic reform, but the country's recent history is not on his 
side, says John Thornhill

The popularity of Vladimir Putin, who was plucked from obscurity by President 
Boris Yeltsin five months ago to lead Russia into the 21st century, owes much 
to his brutal military crackdown in Chechnya. It also reflects the former KGB 
officer's ability to present himself as all things to all people.

Since being appointed prime minister last August, Mr Putin has won the 
respect of military hawks, Slavophile nationalists, and western-oriented 
young reformers alike. But since he was appointed acting president by Boris 
Yeltsin last week, Mr Putin has been under pressure to define his policies 
more clearly.

Over the past few weeks, Mr Putin has gathered a team of advisers around him 
and has begun articulating his views. He will be forced to reveal even more 
of his thoughts over the next three months in the run-up to the presidential 
elections, in which he is the clear favourite.

Will he merely reveal himself to be the front-man for Russia's oligarchs, as 
some commentators have suggested? Or will he prove to be the dynamic, 
reforming president that Russia needs, capable of charting a Third Way 
between Communist authoritarianism and lawless capitalism?

The most detailed exposition of Mr Putin's political thinking so far is 
contained in a programme published on a government web site a few days ago. 
The lengthy document is a striking mixture of hard-hitting analysis of 
Russia's current troubles, combined with nationalistic rhetoric and liberal 
wishful thinking.

******