December 15, 1999    
This Date's Issues: 3682 • 3683  • 3684

Johnson's Russia List
#3684
15 December 1999
davidjohnson@erols.com


[Note from David Johnson:
1. Reuters: Russia rejects foreign-mediated Chechen talk.
2. Reuters: Russian Duma ad campaign short on ideas.
3. Bloomberg: Russian Communist Party Leads in Final Poll Before 
Elections.
4. Bloomberg: Russian Communist Party Appeals to Youth Ahead of Duma 
Election.
5. Moscow Times: Andrei Zolotov Jr., Campaign Finance -- It's as Easy 
as Pie.
6. Financial Times (UK) editorial: RUSSIA: Future uncertain.
7. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Computerized Vote Counting System Defended.
8. Argumenty i Fakty: Alexander Prokhanov, "PARTY OF POWER" DEVOURING 
ITSELF.
9. Washington Post: David Hoffman, Russian Campaign Ads Highlight Economic 
Ills.
10. Financial Times (UK): Andrew Jack, Warming to competition.
11. Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Galina Sillaste, FOR FEMALE ELECTORATE, 
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EXCEPT UNITY.]


*******


#1
Russia rejects foreign-mediated Chechen talks
By Maria Eismont

GROZNY, Russia, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Chechnya's leader offered on Wednesday
to seek peace at almost any price in internationally mediated talks with
Russia, but Moscow ruled out foreign involvement and dismissed the proposal
as artificial. 


Thousands of civilians in Grozny, the besieged capital of the rebel region,
cowered in dark cellars heated only by wood stoves throughout a night of
shelling. Food is running out and some have been reduced to eating pigeons
to survive. 


``I do not reject any proposals about political dialogue if they could
hasten a peaceful outcome to this crisis by even an hour,'' Chechen
President Aslan Maskhadov told Interfax news agency in Grozny. He was ready
for wide-ranging compromises. 


Emergencies Minister Sergei Shoigu, who has taken personal responsibility
for evacuating Grozny, said he could meet Maskhadov but to talk only about
how to help the civilians leave. He saw no role for foreign mediators. 


Chechens have suffered a series of military setbacks, while Moscow is under
increased Western pressure to protect civilians. 


Despite this, the hurdles to any talks remain substantial. Nonetheless,
Wednesday's exchanges were the most serious discussion of possible talks
since Russia's campaign began. 


Shoigu, leader of a new Kremlin-backed political party running in Sunday's
parliamentary election, estimates the number of civilians still in the city
at between 8,000 and 30,000, but other figures have been higher. 


Norwegian Foreign Minister Knut Vollebaek, who heads the Organisation for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, said in Dagestan, east of Chechnya,
that he was ready to mediate. The OSCE played a key role in ending Russia's
1994-96 Chechnya war. 


But a Russian deputy foreign minister accompanying him said the Chechnya
operation -- launched two and a half months ago after a spate of bombings
in Russia -- was an internal affair. 


``Our Western partners should understand the mediation proposal is
artificial,'' First Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Avdeyev told
Itar-Tass news agency. 


General Valery Manilov, first deputy chief of General Staff, told a rare
briefing for foreign military attaches Russia would control Chechnya in two
to three months and the capital sooner. He said talks with the rebels would
be a ``pointless pursuit.'' 


``The question of the liberation of Grozny should take a matter of days,''
he said, but added there would be no major assault while civilians remained
in the city. 


Manilov said 400 Russian soldiers and some 7,000 rebels had been killed
since the fighting began. 


A Defence Ministry spokesman in Moscow said troops had cleared rebels from
Khankala, site of a military airport on Grozny's eastern edge. RIA news
agency said troops were clearing the Staraya Sunzha region in the northeast
of the city. 


But Chechen commander Lechi Islamov told Reuters in Grozny more than 7,000
fighters were still prepared to defend the city. 


The OSCE's Vollebaek had to delay his trip to Russian-held parts of
Chechnya because of bad weather but vowed to stay on in the region up to
Christmas to make sure he visits the area. 


CIVILIANS IN GROZNY DESPERATE AND NUMB 


Continuous shelling could be heard in the Chechen capital, although there
have been no air strikes for three days. 


Russia has rescinded an ultimatum issued last week in which it said it
would consider anybody left in the city past December 11 to be a valid
military target. Few people have managed to use the two corridors Russia
set up to allow civilians to leave. 


During the day the streets are largely empty, but residents come out of
their cellars during lulls in the shelling to collect firewood, fetch water
or trade at the bazaar. 


``How can we get out? These corridors -- it is a lie. We don't believe
it,'' said Galya, a young mother with her seven-year-old daughter at a
market stall. 


``They say people tried to leave and got killed. Better to die here than to
die on the road.'' 


Russia has scored a number of dramatic gains in the past week and now has
near complete control of the Chechen lowlands apart from Grozny itself. It
has turned its guns toward the southern mountains where retreating rebels
have set up bases. 


Russia says it has full control of Shali, the last major lowland town apart
from Grozny to have been in rebel hands. 


Moscow launched its campaign in response to Chechen-led attacks on
neighbouring regions and bomb blasts in Russia which killed nearly 300
people and were blamed by Russian leaders on Chechen separatists. The
rebels deny responsibility. 


The campaign has won wide public support on the eve of Sunday's
parliamentary election in Russia. It has dramatically boosted the ratings
of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, as well as Shoigu's Unity party, which
Putin backs. 
(Additional reporting by Alister Doyle in Makhachkala and Timothy Heritage
in Moscow) 



*******


#2
Russian Duma ad campaign short on ideas
By Peter Henderson


MOSCOW, Dec 15 (Reuters) - A dirty parliamentary election campaign, short on 
vision and long on personalities, is dampening Russia's hopes of a clean 
start to the millennium. 


The battle for Sunday's election to the State Duma lower house has filled 
radio airwaves and television screens with damning accusations and mutual 
recriminations that have pushed advertising of policies and ideas into the 
background. 


Sergei Koptev, general manager in Russia for Moscow's largest advertising 
firm DMB&B, says the campaign has largely disintegrated into battles between 
candidates attacking each other, as opposed to the previous race in 1995. 


``There were promises, there were proposals, an attempt to show people a 
direction. This campaign is based on rejection, on the negative,'' he says. 


``If before it was 'I am better than him', then now it is 'I am not as bad as 
he is.' And that is horrible -- very much so for society.'' 


The campaign has renewed questions about media objectivity in Russia and 
dimmed already faint hopes that, after years of political squabbles and 
in-fighting that held back progress, this election will lay a real foundation 
for democracy. 


FACES, NOT IDEAS 


Russia offers a broad spectrum of ideological choice and there are battles 
between rival parties in every sector of the electorate. 


A number of political parties formed by newly-allied politicians contest for 
air and television space alongside the more established groups. 


Many parties are basing identities on their leaders, rather than programmes, 
and many candidates are clearly rehearsing for another poll -- a presidential 
election in six months in which President Boris Yeltsin must stand down. 


``You can probably say the campaign remains more a question of personalities. 
Voters continue to look more at people than programmes. Ideology is probably 
less important than last time,'' said former state property minister Maxim 
Boiko. 


He now heads Video International, an advertising agency representing the 
Union of Right Forces, a group of Western-oriented reformers including former 
Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko. 


The group tantalises voters with prospects of making Russia a genuine part of 
Europe, but not all its campaign advertisements are positive. 


In one, a woman is asked to describe the party's leaders and, in a veiled 
attack on the old guard before the presidential election, she says: ``They're 
not senile.'' 


STAVING OFF COLLAPSE 


Prominent politicians are generally promising to save Russia from collapse, 
although the refrain lacks the urgency of Yeltsin's re-election campaign in 
1996, based on scaring people that a vote against him would let Communists 
back into power. 


The main personalities include former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and 
Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov, who head the centrist Fatherland-All Russia and 
urge voters to ``Believe only Deeds,'' in an unusual but weak attempt to form 
a party identity. 


Their group's second place in opinion polls has recently been taken by the 
newly formed pro-Kremlin party called Unity, thanks to the support of Prime 
Minister Vladimir Putin and the clean image of its leader, Emergencies 
Minister Sergei Shoigu. 


Unity's campaign ads are dominated by the slogan ``Russia Needs to be Saved'' 
and pictures of Shoigu in his trademark red rain coat. But the party has no 
clear programme other than to support the government. 


Kiriyenko's group is battling for the ground right of centre with Yabloko, 
the established liberal opposition group headed by economist Grigory 
Yavlinsky. 


On the left, the Communists dominate and are generally expected to be the 
single largest party with around 20 percent of the vote. Their campaign ads 
focus on symbols of Soviet success, such as a World War Two medal. 


DEMOCRACY LOSES ITS SHINE ON TV 


Russians will vote for both a local representative and a party. Half the 
members of the 450-seat Duma will represent the districts where they were 
elected and half will be distributed among parties which win five percent of 
the votes or more. 


Much of the mudslinging is done on television, although many Russian Internet 
pages feature anti-Luzhkov advertisements. 


Luzhkov, who is immensely popular in Moscow but has fallen out with the 
Kremlin, is one of the main targets in the media and advertising war. 


Criticism is often part of television news programmes, skirting a law on 
advertising spending which is meant to level the playing field. Experts say 
political advertising spending is down this campaign. 


``Limits are on advertising that must be paid for. If a channel has a 
position, then one cannot limit what it says about candidates,'' Boiko said. 


Koptev added: ``I really do not see any television programmes that are not 
slanted, now.'' 


He said the media could determine the outcome of the election, despite media 
bias: ``I am surprised that many people believe them at this point.'' 


*******


#3
Russian Communist Party Leads in Final Poll Before Elections


Moscow, Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's Communist Party is the
most popular party ahead of Dec. 19 parliamentary elections,
according to the last opinion poll before the elections from Public
Opinion Fund.


Public Opinion Fund is an independent Russian poll agency
established in 1991. The total number of respondents participating
in the poll was 1,500. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percent.
The poll, carried out between Dec. 14-15, surveyed 1,500 people.
The figures in parentheses are the findings of the previous poll
(Dec. 4-5).


Communist Party 21% (21%)
Unity Movement 16% (17%)
Fatherland-All Russia 10% (9%)
Yabloko Party 5% (7%)
Union of Right Forces 7% (5%)
Zhirinovsky Bloc 5% (5%)
Women of Russia 3% (3%)
None of the above 2% (2%)
Others 7% (8%)
Difficult to answer 6% (5%)
Haven't decided yet 13% (12%)
Will not vote 5% (6%)


(Public Opinion Fund www.fom.ru)



*******


#4
Russian Communist Party Appeals to Youth Ahead of Duma Election

Moscow, Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Russian Communist Party leader Gennady
Zyuganov, trying to create a hip new image, stands on stage before an
auditorium of Moscow Aviation Institute students, joking about vodka,
Americans and Soviet-style bureaucracy. 


They laugh and ask about Zyuganov's Web site and favorite car, a
chauffeur-driven Audi. 


``The Communists are the best solution,'' said Ramil Shakurov, 20, after
hearing Zyuganov speak. ``We always looked towards the U.S. romantically,
expecting liberal capitalism to give us a better life. Now we are
disappointed.'' 


Zyuganov finished second in the 1996 presidential election, and his party
holds the largest block of seats in the lower house of parliament, the
Duma, thanks largely to an aging group of party supporters. Winning over a
new generation is key for the communists to keep their leading position in
the Duma after Sunday's election. 


The 55-year-old communist leader is trying to appeal to an electorate that
doesn't remember the days of controlled prices and heroes of labor. They're
more concerned about finding apartments and jobs after graduation. 


``These days you can finish at the top of your class and find no work,''
Zyuganov told the group of students. ``You're not needed for your country
and for industry. This month you are not choosing a parliament but your
fate.'' 


Strong Support 


The Communist Party now holds 119 of 450 seats in the Duma, and typically
it can count on support from the Agrarian Party, which has 35 seats, and
the People's Power Party, with 43 seats. Opinion polls show the Communist
Party leading ahead of this weekend's election with about 21 percent of the
vote. 


Most of the party's base still lies with pensioners seeking the security of
their communist youth that they've lost living on a pension of about 500
rubles ($18.70) a month. About 44 percent of Russians over 50 vote for the
Communist Party, while just 14 percent of 18- to 35-year-olds vote for
communists, according to the polling company Public Opinion Fund. 


Zyuganov, deputy chief of propaganda during communist times, joined party
hard-liners and extreme nationalists before the failed coup against Mikhail
Gorbachev in 1991, by signing an open letter calling for the reversal of
Gorbachev's reforms. 


Today he challenges the free-market reforms of the early 1990s, saying the
government sold off its most valuable assets at a small fraction of their
value, and allowed only the favored few to become rich. 


`Destitute' 


``If this regime continues, 5 percent of the people will be rich after they
stole all of the country's resources, 10 to 15 percent will have a decent
life and the rest will be destitute,'' Zyuganov said. ``Russians won't put
up with that.'' 


He says the changes have achieved nothing, while shortening life spans as
health care services deteriorate and food prices soar. 


``The Russian male's average life span is 58 years, 10 years less than a
decade ago,'' Zyuganov said. 


The party promises to provide housing and jobs and to revive the defense
industry. As part of its new appeal, it's also pledging guaranteed access
to the Internet. 


Zyuganov stops short of calling for the government takeover of private
businesses and condemns Stalin's purges, while calling for changes to the
constitution. 


``No one fears the communists anymore,'' said Alan Rousso, director of the
Carnegie Moscow Centre. ``They're talking in rational terms for the need
for constitutional change and economic changes.'' 


Still, the party is aware its support is waning, and the emergence of two
new parties, Fatherland-All Russia Party and Unity Party, threaten to
weaken its position in parliament. 


Zyuganov is seeking an alliance with former Prime Minister Yevgeny
Primakov, a member of Fatherland-All Russia and a former Soviet-era spy and
bureaucrat, who commands respect for his diplomatic experience and
commitment to fighting corruption. 


The Communist Party, Zyuganov said, can't count on nostalgia to win votes
much longer. 


``We can't fool ourselves,'' he said. ``We can never go back. We must look
to the future.'' 



******


#5
Moscow Times
December 15, 1999 
Campaign Finance -- It's as Easy as Pie 
By Andrei Zolotov Jr.
Staff Writer


As the election official in charge of policing Russia's campaign-finance 
reporting system, Professor Yevgeny Kalyushin knows the limitations of the 
post well. 


"We are aware that we do not fully control this process," said Kalyushin, a 
member of the Central Election Commission. "Ensuring fair and transparent 
elections funding is a task similar to calculating the exact value of pi f it 
is insoluble anywhere in the world. But we are on the right track." 


On paper, Russia has a strict system of campaign-finance reporting. Compared 
to the 1995 State Duma election, this year's campaign is even more regulated, 
obliging candidates to file three financial reports. 


But, as is the case with any other Russian activity, there are two sets of 
books: the ones you show and the ones you don't. 


According to election law, candidates or blocs are permitted only one 
campaign bank account, and it must be in state-owned Sberbank. Campaign 
expenditure may only be paid from this account. If a donation from an illegal 
source arrives f be it a citizen under 18, a foreigner, or a company with at 
least 30 percent foreign or Russian state ownership, or a company that had 
been established less than one year before the elections f the money must be 
returned. Anonymous donations must be immediately forwarded to the federal 
budget. 


Then there's what actually happens. 


There is a huge discrepancy between the legal cap on campaign spending fund f 
about $63,500 for a single-mandate candidate and about $1.6 million for a 
bloc f and the real amounts of money spent in the campaigns. Sergei Markov, 
director of the Institute of Political Studies, estimates that a full-scale 
nationwide campaign for a bloc starts at $20 million, while an individual 
candidate needs to spend at least $300,000 to run a respectable campaign. 
These numbers are still much lower than the formula often cited by 
public-relations specialists: one vote f one dollar. 


"Of course, a large part of campaign funding does not go through official 
campaign budgets," public relations specialist Alexander Sigal said. The 
official campaign figures were "fluff," he said. 


Russia's financial cri sis has deflated campaign spending somewhat. Yury 
Zapol, general director of the Video International advertising giant, said in 
a recent interview that the political advertising budgets failed to meet the 
expectations of Russian television channels. Kalyushin said that advertising 
in electronic media consumes up to 70 percent of campaign funds. 


Of course, it is not just money that determines the outcome of elections. 


According to Markov, there are "convertible resources" such as "good 
relations with the governor" or the presence of a network of activists in the 
region that can reduce campaign spending. The Communist Party appears to be 
the only political force in Russia that has both an ideological following and 
a network of activists. Others have to spend to woo the electorate. 


Vladimir Ruga, a partner in the PR-Tsentr public relations firm, said in the 
so-called Red Belt, a Communist candidate can win a seat in the Duma by 
staying within the official campaign fund. Kalyushin said Communists are the 
only bloc whose share of donations by individuals, as opposed to companies, 
is about 15 percent. "Most money comes from legal entities," Kalyushin said. 


For what it's worth, official CEC data released last week show the 
pro-Kremlin Unity bloc as the leader in fund-raising, and it has nearly 
reached its 42 million ruble limit, having spent 40 million rubles. It has 
ostensibly spent slightly more than half of this money. 


Although the Sibneft company and Roman Abramovich, its Kremlin-insider board 
member, would be a logical choice behind Unity's funding, they are absent 
from the list. 


Alexei Firsov, a Sibneft spokesman, said, "Sibneft is absolutely outside of 
politics. We have not provided donations for any political bloc." 


Instead, little-known entities are presented as the bloc's main donors, 
including groups like the Club of Martial Arts (100,000 rubles) and the 
Russian Union of Afghan War veterans (140,000 rubles). 


Zhirinovsky's Bloc and the Communists trail Unity in the official budget 
rating with over 39 million rubles each. Then comes the Anatoly 
Chubais-backed Union of Right Forces and Fatherland-All Russia of Yevgeny 
Primakov and Yury Luzhkov f both with slightly under 37 million rubles. 
Yabloko's official fund is the smallest among the leaders, with about 29.5 
million rubles. 


It is hard to find any system among the little-known names of official 
donors. 


There are several Moscow supermarket chains, such as Stolichniye Gastronomy 
and Sedmoi Kontinent among donors to Fatherland. The system of Narodniye 
Doma, or People's Houses f public exhibit and cultural facilities that in 
1995 served as a network for the pro-government Our Home is Russia party f 
have switched allegiance to the current government favorite, Unity. 


At the same time, public-relations specialists and political analysts say 
that the main f and mostly well-hidden f sources of campaign financing are 
the fuel and energy companies, the metals industry, the so-called "natural 
monopolies" and the banks that survived the financial crisis. In other words, 
the oligarchs. 


While some major companies have firm affiliations with certain blocs, others 
tend not to put their eggs into one basket. 


For example, Chubais-run Unified Energy Systems is seen as helping the Union 
of Right Forces, while the National Reserve Bank, chaired by Alexander 
Lebedev, is said to be allied with Our Home Is Russia. Others, such as the 
LUKoil and Yukos oil companies, are likely to be funding several parties at 
the same time. 


But while the attention of political watchers in Moscow is concentrated on 
the parties' race, it is among the single-mandate districts that the future 
industrial lobbies are being formed, analysts said. 


Markov said big companies such as Gazprom and the state-owned Railways 
Ministry have lists of individual candidates whom they support. "The 
single-mandate candidates are more grateful to their sponsors" than the blocs 
are, Markov said. "For them, business prevails over politics." 


Valentin Zudin, a spokesman for the Railways Ministry, said that "as a 
federal ministry, railways have no right to take part in the electoral 
campaign in an organized manner." 


"A number of railways workers are running for the State Duma, but that is 
their personal affair," Zudin said. 


Gazprom officials did not respond to faxed questions. 


Public relations specialist Sigal said that regional candidates can be 
largely divided in two groups: the protĪgĪs of the governors and the protĪgĪs 
of federal structures. 


"Deputies' funding is a cross section of interests of various structures," he 
said. 


*******


#6
Financial Times (UK)
December 14, 1999
Editorial
RUSSIA: Future uncertain 


After all those years of grimly predictable one-party rule, Russia's new 
version of democracy is producing precisely the opposite. With less than a 
week before Russia's parliamentary elections, the outcome is still highly 
unpredictable. But whatever the outcome, the future Duma is likely to be just 
as ideologically confused and self-serving as its predecessor.


The chances are that opponents of President Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin, 
his prime minister, will have a majority. But the Chechen war has had an 
extraordinary effect in boosting Mr Putin's personal popularity, and is 
likely to influence the result. Moreover, across the country 
personality-based local politics will often play a bigger role than national 
party politics.


Mr Putin has thrown his now considerable weight behind the Unity alliance, 
which is an artificial grouping of convenience to support the Kremlin. It has 
no party programme, no organisation outside Moscow, and no obvious direction 
other than feudal obedience. Yet it has come from nowhere to second place in 
opinion polls behind the Communist party, with some 18 per cent support, 
thanks almost entirely to the popularity of the onslaught on Chechnya.


If the Communists team up with the Fatherland-All Russia alliance, headed by 
Yevgeny Primakov, the former prime minister, and Yuri Luzhkov, the mayor of 
Moscow, it could mean a majority opposed to Mr Yeltsin. That might in turn 
upset the president's plan to get Mr Putin elected as his successor next 
summer.


The Duma could pass a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, and force 
his resignation. Thanks to a quirk in the constitution, the president cannot 
retaliate by disbanding the Duma during its first year. Mr Putin could see 
his popularity evaporate out of office.


One relief is that the elections may see the disappearance of Vladimir 
Zhirinovsky, the volatile far-right nationalist: his party is unlikely to win 
the 5 per cent needed to enter the Duma. Yabloko, led by Grigory Yavlinsky, 
the clearest adherent of liberal democracy, has slipped below 10 per cent. 
The Union of Right Forces, led by one-time reformers such as Yegor Gaidar and 
Anatoly Chubais, may scrape in over the 5 per cent hurdle.


For those hoping to see a clear programme towards further market reforms in 
Russia, and a predictable international partner in Moscow, all this is 
scarcely reassuring. The next six months will see even more furious 
campaigning for the presidency. Mr Putin is by no means home and dry. The 
rest of the world will have to expect a bumpy ride.


******


#7
Russia: Computerized Vote Counting System Defended 


Rossiyskaya Gazeta
10 December 1999
[translation for personal use only]
Report by Tatyana Smolyakova: "It Is Possible To Think Long But Count 
Quickly" 


We have already managed to forget that, not long 
ago, it took a full 14 days to calculate the results of a national 
election. Today it takes only a few hours -- or three to five minutes for 
a snapshot result. 


In 1995, within the framework of the "Elections" state automated system 
federal program, a unique hardware-software system -- a scanner for 
ballot papers (SIB) -- was developed by the Russian company KROK on a 
computer platform from Compaq, the world's leading manufacturer of 
computing technology). This is able, in a matter of a few seconds, to 
count and process data from any paper form with a fixed pattern: 
invoices, questionnaires of all kinds, ballot papers. This intelligent 
machine recognizes characters, figures, and even many free-form 
annotations, as long as they are made in the fields allocated. 


With regard to technological characteristics, SIB surpasses all existing 
equivalents across the world, and, moreover, it is significantly cheaper. 
Ballot paper scanners were used widely for the first time in 1996, during 
the election of the President of Russia and that of the mayor of Moscow. 
For the forthcoming election, they will be installed at 110 polling 
places in the capital, which provides the opportunity to learn the 
preliminary result of the election within a few minutes. "But why only in 
Moscow?" -- I ask Boris Bobrovnikov, president of the KROK company. 


"This is more a question for the Central Electoral Commission, which is 
the client. To equip all polling places in the country with SIBs would be 
expensive, and, moreover, probably not really necessary. According to 
election legislation, for the official final results a 'manual' count is 
needed in any case, but for a preliminary count it will be sufficient to 
install the scanners in 2-3% of the largest polling centers. This time 
yet another of our systems will be used widely: 'The Voting Progress and 
Results Depiction System,' which permits the effective presentation of 
data in the form of tables, charts, maps, or diagrams on monitors or 
consoles via the Internet or Intranet, in real time mode or with a 
specified delay." 


A question may occur to the taxpayers-voters: Is it not a luxury at 
this time to expend meager budgetary resources on a technical "wonder" 
merely for the pleasure of learning sooner who has won? The exact 
opposite is the case: contemporary vote counting systems reduce wasteful 
expenditure substantially, by a factor of 5-10 times. 


In the past few days rumors about possible distortions or abuses 
facilitated by information systems in general, and the "Elections" state 
automated system in particular, have been actively whipped up. 


"This is obscurantism or simply belligerent ignorance," Boris Bobrovnikov 
thinks. "Electronic systems are designed, built, and run in accordance 
with the idea that the smallest inaccuracies, let alone serious 
violations, are eliminated completely. Dozens of methods are provided in 
these systems for the checking and re-checking of data. Electronic 
systems increase the trustworthiness of information by many times, and 
this is one of the main reasons for using them for counting votes 
everywhere in the world."


******


#8
Argumenty i Fakty
No. 49
[translation for personal use only from RIA Novosti]
PARTY OF POWER" DEVOURING ITSELF
By Alexander PROKHANOV,
Author and co-chairman of Russia's National Patriotic Union

There is no single "party of power" in today's
Russia. There is the pro-Kremlin group composed of the
president's staff, the cabinet and governors close to
the Kremlin. 
It is opposed by the Primakov-Luzhkov team. Not
unlike a hernia, it is a part of the mother party of
the 1996 make. The hernia is now claiming the central
part in the body of the Russian state. 
The conflict is not that of ideologies; it is a
conflict of dynasties. One dynasty is coming to replace
the other and the younger heir is unseating the old
monarch.

Opinion polls seem to indicate that the Kremlin group is
going to triumph over the Moscow, i.e. Luzhkov's and Primakov's,
team. But I would advise against making rash conclusions. I have
seen classified ratings compiled by FAPSI, the Federal Agency of
Government Communications and Information, which say that the
Communists will get 31-32% of the votes, while the press promises
them no more than 21-22%. The December 19, 1999 elections will
show the worth of each and everyone. 
In reality, the war being waged before our eyes is a largely
virtual one, for the hostilities are conducted by the warring TV
channels. 
Shoigu's Bear Hug

The Kremlin's best find is Sergei Shoigu, no doubt. The
emergencies minister is being consumed by colossal ambitiousness.
I would describe his ambitiousness as that of a revanchist. A
Tuvinian, he cannot overcome an inferiority complex built into
his nature on the gene level. I have visited the republic on
several occasions and know a few things about that God-forsaken
place located somewhere beyond the Sayan Mountains but closer
than Mongolia. 
The rise of Shoigu, a bright person no doubt, in that
semi-primordial territory is tantamount to the tiny Tuva nation's
breakthrough into the huge wide world of Russia. Driven by the
untamed natural forces, Shoigu is surging ahead at breathtaking
speed. 
Shoigu is not unlike the steel core of a bullet about to hit
a bull's eye. 
Shoigu's choice for the Number One in Yedinstvo, or Unity,
also known by its Russian acronym Medved, or Bear, has been
indisputably very opportune. Nevertheless, I do not discern a
clear political future ahead of the movement. It has enlisted too
few governors, and those it has enlisted run sparsely populated
areas which would not yield a lot of votes.
Medved has no ideology or philosophy. It is falling far
behind Luzhkov's Otechestvo, or Fatherland, which has a
metaphysical standing of its own. Luzhkov has spent many years
meticulously preparing his campaign, building roads and churches,
and combating for the Crimea's return to Russia. 
Yedinstvo is a non-entity in this respect. What can it do?

Salutary Triumvirate

The battle waged between and by the two heads of the "party
of power" reminds me of an old joke. This earthworm wriggles out
of his hole after an early-morning rain and sees another worm
nearby. The earthworm says: "You despisable, disgusting creature,
look at me. See how beautiful, well-built and smart I am. And
you, what are you?" "I'm your tail, you dummy," the other
replies. 
The earthworm of power fighting itself provides a wide room
for the Left-patriotic party to manoeuvre in. Thus far, it has
been sitting on the fence, a passive onlooker of the wrangle. 
It has also been making believe it is forming a union--now
with one, now with another group. The reaction is turbulent each
time. All the Left have to do is to hint to the possibility of
Zyuganov's alliance with PM Putin, and Fatherland All Russia is
so scared that it starts accusing the Communist Party's big boss
of perfidy. When the Communists launch the rumour of an alliance
of Luzhkov, Primakov and Zyuganov to overthrow Putin, the Kremlin
has a fit of panic. 
As I see it, the following scenario is the most likely one.
There would be a lull in the wake of the December 19 elections.
The violent faceoff would end in negotiations aimed to devise a
set of rules of behaviour for the period until the presidential
election. 
What's the bargain? To start with, the Duma majority
composed of the Communist Party's and Fatherland-All Russia's MPs
can make certain conditions to the Cabinet to meet in return for
the lower chamber's promise not to carry a vote of no confidence
to Putin. 
But the Constitutional reform would be the main point to be
contended. The Kremlin and Putin, on the one hand, and the
Communists and Luzhkov, on the other hand, may agree to amend the
Constitution in such a way so as to cardinally change the format
of power. The objective would be to give a part of the
president's powers to the Cabinet and the Duma. 
The campaign for the presidency would then lose its
dramatism. If Putin is elected the president, he would not cut a
second Yeltsin. If Luzhkov is appointed the premier, he would be
strong and independent enough not to be a toy in the Kremlin's
hands. If Zyuganov comes to be the Duma's speaker and if the
Cabinet is formed on the basis of the Duma majority, he would
make a key figure in the political arena. 
The appearance of such a triumvirate would certainly cool
passions on the eve of the presidential election.

*******


#9
Washington Post
13 December 1999
[for personal use only]
Russian Campaign Ads Highlight Economic Ills
Vows to Combat Poverty, Corruption, Lawlessness Outweigh Foreign Issues
By David Hoffman


MOSCOW, Dec. 12—In the Communist Party's television ad, a construction
worker's hard hat is slammed down on a table. Then a mobile phone. The
muscular arm of a laborer takes up an arm-wrestling pose. A businessman's
arm, with cuff links and a fancy watch, accepts the challenge.


As the years of the 1990s tick by on the screen, the businessman almost
wins. But in the closing scene, the worker triumphs.


In the final week of Russia's parliamentary election campaign, these are
the kinds of images flooding the airwaves. Virtually every major party is
focusing on the economy and Russia's tumultuous attempt in recent years to
become a free-market democracy.


In the four years since the last parliamentary election, Russia has gone
from boom to bust and halfway back again. The reelection of President Boris
Yeltsin in 1996 touched off a burst of foreign investment in Russian stocks
and bonds, and the country returned to global credit markets. But the Asian
financial crisis, political clan warfare in Russia and the overvalued ruble
led to a devaluation and default in August 1998 that discredited many
free-market reforms. The election will demonstrate how public
disenchantment translates into political choices.


If the advertising of the parties is a mirror of the political consensus
today, then the verdict on Russian capitalism is not a happy one. From the
Communists to a bloc headed by former prime minister Yevgeny Primakov to
the centrist Yabloko party, political commercials are filled with criticism
of corruption, cronyism, lawlessness and poverty. Rarely does anyone raise
such issues as Russia's place in the world or who should lead it after
Yeltsin leaves office next year; elementary questions of jobs and welfare
are at the core of every campaign commercial.


"Are we going to live better?" an elderly man asks Grigory Yavlinsky,
leader of the Yabloko party, in one ad. "We have everything to live better
in this country," Yavlinsky reassures him. The party's slogan then appears:
"Yabloko--for a decent life."


In another ad, Primakov sits solemnly at a big wooden desk. "Look around!"
he implores. "Poverty, lawlessness, corruption and theft! These things
prevent us from working normally and being proud of our country. . . . We
will establish order on the basis of law. We will strike at those who take
bribes!"


Despite the gloomy tone, there are some promising trends in the rhetoric
and platforms of the Russian political parties. One is the simple fact of a
vigorous political campaign in which all the players see the race itself as
a vehicle for competing for power.


Next Sunday's vote will determine the makeup of the lower house of
parliament, the 450-seat State Duma, for the next four years. Half the
seats are filled based on party lists, meaning that parties that win at
least 5 percent of the vote will share these 225 seats on a proportional
basis.


The other half of the seats are filled through races in individual
districts. This is the first time in the short eight-year history of
Russian democracy that Duma districts have remained the same since the
previous election, and more than a dozen candidates are running in many of
them. The upper chamber of parliament, the Federation Council, is made up
of regional governors and leaders of local legislatures.


As part of their vigorous campaigns, most of the major parties have drafted
relatively pro-market political platforms. Although the Duma's powers are
relatively weak, the last session demonstrated that the chamber can be an
important factor in economic policy, blocking reforms, as well as pushing
them.


A study by Mikhail Dmitriev of the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace here found that in the last four years all the political parties
"have grown weary of inflation, and no party is proposing large-scale
printing of money" as a means of coping with government obligations. Four
years ago, the Communists and the party of nationalist legislator Vladimir
Zhirinovsky advocated "virtually uncontrolled" money printing.


Morever, Dmitriev said, the major parties now agree on the need to cut
punitive taxes, and none of the parties--including the
Communists--"advocate full-scale state intervention" in the economy, a
marked change from four years ago.


Perhaps the most important shift, Dmitriev found, is on the issue of
privatization of state assets. Russia carried out a historic transfer of
state-owned property to private hands in the 1990s, one that remains
intensely controversial. Dmitriev noted that four years ago, the Communists
sought to reverse this process by putting some enterprises back in the
hands of the state.


"Between 1995 and 1999, a major shift has taken place," he said, adding
that the "main focus" now is on improving how companies are run, not
renationalizing them. "The Communist Party is now talking about how to
enforce property rights and provide effective protection of private
property which was acquired 'honestly.' "


The Communists, however, do want to take back those enterprises they say
are "working unsatisfactorily, or not working at all," party leader Gennady
Zyuganov said.


Zyuganov also has vowed to reverse some of the gains of Russia's new
financial tycoons, known here as the "oligarchs." He said Russia's
privatization led to "bandit capitalism" and that "now with shooting,
scuffling and under the complete indifference of the law enforcement
authorities, the bandits have started the second redistribution of what was
already stolen once."


The Communists are not alone in attacking the tycoons, who have come under
intense criticism in many commercials and television broadcasts. "Will we
live in a state of oligarchs and corrupt officials, or in a normal and
prosperous country?" asked Yabloko member Vladimir Averchev in one of the
party's television broadcasts.


In another broadcast, Primakov declared: "It is time we lived without
looking back at home-grown oligarchs clinging to power." He promised that
if elected, "we will start fighting those plundering Russia."


*******


#10
Financial Times (UK)
15 December 1999
[for personal use only]
RUSSIA: Warming to competition 
By Andrew Jack in Moscow


Most Russians believe in competition and a rejection of Soviet-style 
protectionism and state control in spite of the impact of the financial 
crisis in August last year, the annual United Nations Development Programme 
report concluded on Tuesday.


Drawing on a series of opinion polls and statistical information, a group of 
Russian experts commissioned to write the report found that only 27.5 per 
cent were willing to return to a socialist planned economy. More than 
three-quarters rejected the large-scale support for the defence industry that 
existed during the Communist era.


In a finding with potentially important implications for national 
parliamentary elections scheduled for Sunday, more than three-quarters of 
those questioned cited the inability of the Russian president to cope with 
his responsibilities as an explanation for the crisis last year.


That compared with 41 per who blamed the pre-crisis government of Viktor 
Chernomyrdin, 36 per cent the Communist-dominated parliament, 32 per cent the 
poor advice of the west and 15 per cent the mistakes of the government of 
Sergei Kiriyenko, which was in charge in August last year.


But different survey questions suggested that while people supported lower 
taxes and greater competition to cut prices, many also called for import 
controls and nationalisation. Just 8 per cent supported liquidating 
inefficient enterprises.


The analysis suggests that Russians consider the freedom to travel abroad to 
be the most important democratic principle, followed in importance by the 
elections, critical media, the right to strike and the chance to resolve 
conflicts with the authorities in courts.


It said real disposable incomes during the first seven months of this year 
were three-quarters of those in the same period last year. The survey failed 
to provide much historical data before 1998 or during Soviet times, making 
comparisons difficult.


An ageing population, a fall in the birth rate and a reduction in immigration 
mean the population could shrink from 146m to 137m in 2010. But it 
highlighted rising life expectancy at birth since 1994. In 1998, male life 
expectancy was 61.3 years and female 72.9 years - still a very high 
differential.


*******


#11
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
December 9, 1999
[translation for personal use only from RIA Novosti]
FOR FEMALE ELECTORATE, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EXCEPT UNITY
By Galina SILLASTE, PhD,
a member of the Russian President's Commission 
for the Affairs of Women, Family and Demography

There are 9 million more female voters in Russia than their
male counterparts. If the female electorate could unite on the
basis of a single platform and rally behind leaders acceptable
for all, this country would have authorities chosen by women at
all levels from the federal down to the local.
Russia's female electorate is older than the male one by
10-12 years on the average. There are 2.5 times more female
voters from among old-age pensioners--20 million--than the males.
They are mostly urban dwellers: there are 3 times more female
voters in cities and towns than in the countryside. 
Such are the quantitative properties of the female
electorate. As to its qualitative properties, several new trends
are discernible these days, compared to the 1995 parliamentary
elections. 
Trend One. The share of the female electorate who are
finding it hard to name a leader "they could trust," has dropped
from 23% to 18% between November 1995 and November 1999. This is
very important, for it means that the female electorate has
largely identified its political preferences. 
Trend Two. The share of female voters who do not trust the
generally recognised political leaders the opinion polls are
listing for the pollees to chose from, is on the rise--from 10.2%
four years ago to 15% these days. They seem to place greater
faith in "other" candidates of their own, "personal" choice. 
Trend Three. Female voters tend to increasingly mistrust all
leaders. Thus, 23.7% of them four years ago, and 28-30% in
November 1999, had "no trust for anybody." Curiously, the male
and female voters seem to be solidary in their mistrust of
Russian politicians--27.2% and 27.9%, respectively. 
Trend Four. Each of the so-called traditional leaders who
run in all election campaigns, has his own, stable and loyal
female electorate. The VTsIOM national public opinion research
centre reported in September 1999 that female voters had
"complete trust" for Yevgeny Primakov (26.3%), followed by
Grigory Yavlinsky (16%), and Gennady Zyuganov (15.67%). But the
latest opinion polls have been led by PM Vladimir Putin who was
"fully trusted" by 45% of the pollees this past November. 
It has become commonplace that money decides the outcome of
elections. But women and female organisations have never had, do
not have, and are unlikely to have in the near future, big money
reserves--for one simple reason. There are no social forces in
Russia who would be interested in a serious and stable
enlargement of the female representation on all tiers of
authority, especially in the top echelons of power. 
But even having a lot of money does not guarantee an
electoral success which is impossible without reliance of the
voters, female or male, on a well-trained, dependable and
numerous machinery--state, party, information (TV closely
followed by radio), promotion, etc. 
Can females realistically employ the potentialities of
various managerial structures to attain a victory in the
elections? Hardly likely, isn't it? For there is one female in
the Putin Cabinet--the vice-premier for social affairs, and none
on the ministerial level. 
Of all female public servants, only 9% hold high posts, and
only 0.1% have made it to the top. Meanwhile, 15,000 females were
employed in the legislative, executive and judicial authorities
in 1997--56.2% of all public servants. But they have to be
content with performing second- and third-rank functions. 
Females are not adequately represented on the Federal
Assembly, the country's two-chamber parliament. While in the
first Duma, there were 60 female members, the current Duma, about
to resign, has only 44 female members, or a bit less than 10% of
its total membership.
The female representation on the local legislatures is even
smaller. Following the 1996 elections to the legislatures of
Russia's constituent members, there were only 351 female members,
or 9.5% of the total legislative body of 3,675 members. The
legislatures of the Komi-Permyak Autonomous Area, and the Tyumen,
Novosibirsk and Kursk regions are all-male. 
In the Federation's constituent members, female deputies
have been elected from among health system administrators,
teachers and local government staffers. There are no manual
workers, farmers, employees of retail trade and services, or
pensioners among them, yet they make up the bulk of the female
electorate. 
The media are exerting noticeable influence on the course of
the election campaign--primarily the electronic media, which are
the main, if not sole, sources of information for the absolute
majority of female voters. Females possess a very limited
capacity of making use of the capacities of TV and radio
broadcasting. One of the substantial reasons is the lack of
female leaders possessing a national image in Russia. 
Way back in 1993, three out of the 100 plus female
non-governmental organisations formed the Women of Russia
movement to attain a success at the elections by receiving 4.37
million votes, or 8.13% of the national figure. As a result, the
first Duma had a female faction, the first of its sort in the
history of Russian parliamentarism. 
Six years later, the number of female non-governmental
organisations in Russia has topped 2,000: 45% of them are
headquartered in Moscow and 9% in St. Petersburg. Forty-five of
them (15 times more than in 1993) have built into their platforms
and statutes the objective of "running in the elections to the
bodies of state authority and the local governments."
How good are they at it?
Of the eight national female organisations, only three--
Alevtina Fedulova's Women of Russia, Yekaterina Lakhova's
Movement of Russia's Women and Larisa Babukh's Education is
Russia's Future--have an experience of campaigning. In the 1995
parliamentary elections, Fedulova and Lakhova headed the
political movement Women of Russia, but failed to clear the 5%
eligibility barrier by a mere 0.3%. 
The newest female organisation is Tatyana Roshchina's
Russian Party in Defense of Women which has no regional
affiliations and has been founded at the initiative of the
presidential administration, some reports say. The party has made
a down payment of 80,000 dollars instead of trying to collect the
necessary number of supporters' signatures. 
Can female vote be pivotal for the outcome of the
forthcoming elections? The Central Election Commission has
approved lists of candidates to the Duma presented by two female
organisations--Women of Russia (#3 on the national ballot paper)
and the Russian Party in Defense of Women (#13). Both
organisations have gone on the election trail independently and
their coveted aim is, of course, to clear the 5% barrier, which
has proven hard to clear. 
Nationally, females make up less than 10% of the overall
number of aspirants for the Duma seats. Of the 31 unions and
blocs willing to run for the lower house, only eight have placed
females on their leading troikas. Female names are hard to find
on the ballot papers.
VTsIOM's social monitoring indicates that 33% of the polled
females are willing to vote and will go to the polls "without
fail," while 15% are vacillating. They make up the more active
portion of the female electorate.
At the same time, 25-26% of the female electorate say they
will not vote, plus 10.2% are potential absentees who doubt
whether it is worthwhile to go to the polls at all. These figures
provide some serious food for thought: one female voter in three
may never turn up for voting. 
Nor should one forget about the appreciably large group of
female voters--up to 20%--who have not made their mind on the
worth of parliamentary elections. 
The doubters are well motivated: 37.2% of them offer a
simple explanation for their doubts--they mistrust all current
politicians. Another 34% believe that "parliament decides nothing
and elections to it are a waste of time," for they "see no party
to represent their interests."

*******