March 8, 1998  
This Date's Issues:    2097  • 2098

Johnson's Russia List
#2098
8 March 1998
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Roger Hamburg: Re Satter's "The Danger of Russia' Great Power 
Illusions."
2. Reuters: Russia's Chernomyrdin to press trade demands in US.
3. RIA Novosti: VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN ON RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
(And other news from Chernomyrdin's TV talk show).
4. WP: Lena Sun, The Search For Miss Right Takes a Turn Toward Russia.
5. InterPress Service: Sergei Blagov, MEDIA-RUSSIA: Copyright Pirates 
Run Riot.
6. Reuters: Yeltsin says women can do more for Russia.
7. U.S. News and World Report: NATO. Ratifying a push into the East.
8. New York Times: Michael Gordon, Victor Chernomyrdin: Hero to U.S., 
Yawn to Russia.
9. Paul Goble (RFE/RL): Democracy Helps To Guarantee National Security.
10. RIA Novosti: MOSCOW DIGGERS MAKE INTERESTING DISCOVERIES UNDER
SUKHAREVSKAYA SQUARE.
11. Moscow Times editorial: Détente Can Best Settle Latvia Feud.
12. New York Times: James Rubin's letter, A Bigger NATO Is Good for 
Europe.]

*******

#1
Date: Sun, 08 Mar 1998
From: "Roger Hamburg" <rhamburg@iusb.edu>
Subject: Re "The Danger of Russia' Great Power Illusions"--David
Satter, JRL#2097

I can agree with some of Satter's cases of illusions, especially the
Abkazia-Ossetian fiasco which a Russian co-editor academic censored and
prevented from being published because I "couldn't understand the Russian
mentality" (Kritika and samokritika) but I totally disagree with NATO
expansion, in part because I believe that there are other ways, EU, economic
levers, etc to deal with what he describes may happen "some day" but also
because of the totally outrageous way that the Clinton administration
handed this to the U.S. Senate as a fait accompli without a hint of a
domestic debate to appease some Democratic voters. I am Jewish myself and am
well aware that that argument can cut both ways but IF the American public,
especially at a time of a declining defense budget and badly stretched
armed forces is being asked to spend more money and take on the obligations
implied under article 5 under the original NATO treaty and a MAJORITY of
the public doesn't even know which are the current candidates for
membership we have to have a better reason for doing this rather than
citing Russian skullduggery that DOES exist and some putative threat that
MAY materialize in the future as the Kremlin does a drang nacht oesten" or
whatever.I am NOT at Johns Hopkins but at a little regional campus in
South Bend,Indiana but I have studied the Soviets and now Russians for 30
years,met some of their military people,served in the U.S. Army as a
recalled military reservist during the Berlin crisis when there WAS a
military threat and returned to civilian life to deal with "THE MISSILES OF
OCTOBER" in Cuba.Perhaps I reflect the "cold war assumptions of my
generation, a child in World War 2, knowing ALL ABOUT misplaced analogies
of "appeasement" and "genocide" but I feel in my bones that there are OTHER
ways of dealing with the problem but you won't hear them in this
administration.I raised them in Norfolk in April(and people tried to shout
me down) and again in Washington.If Satter's words provoke a belated
debate-and I fervently hope that they do- it may not be too late,especially
with an administration that believes in fait accomplis as a way of
conducting its affairs and is VERY dangerous, especially when American
blood and treasure MAY be involved.We better go into this one with our eyes
open. We will NOT be the "world's only superpower forever.

******

#2
Russia's Chernomyrdin to press trade demands in US

MOSCOW, March 8 (Reuters) - Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin said in
an interview published on Sunday that he would press for an end to all trade
restrictions on Russian goods during talks in the United States this week. 
``Sometimes, improper, artificial trade restrictions make it difficult for
Russian goods to break through on the American market,'' Chernomyrdin told
Itar-Tass news agency on the eve of his departure for Washington. 
``We have to cooperate on equal terms so that it is advantageous for both
sides.'' 
Chernomyrdin is due to attend the 10th session of the commission on economic
cooperation which he chairs with U.S. Vice-President Al Gore. 
Chernomyrdin has made the lifting of restrictions on Russian goods a key
point
of his programme to right the Russian economy and press ahead with market
reforms. 
He told a government session last month that direct economic losses
attributable to discriminatory practices totalled $1.7 billion. Only China, he
said, suffered more difficulties from restrictions. He also said Russian
membership of the World Trade Organisation was a priority. 
Chernomyrdin told Tass that the future direction of U.S.-Russian trade would
have a considerable effect on trade patterns throughout the world. 
``Our aim is for the commission to become a real locomotive in forming
relations between the new Russia and the United States in the 21st century,''
he was quoted as saying. 
It was largely thanks to the commission that trade had increased by some 50
percent since its inception in 1993 and now stood at an annual figure of more
than $7 billion. 
He praised intensified cooperation in science and technology, energy,
conversion of military industry, health and environmental protection. 
The prime minister singled out closer ties in space, particularly U.S. and
European participation in the Mir space station. Space cooperation, he said,
had saved billions of dollars and enriched knowledge on all sides. 
But Chernomyrdin acknowledged the commission contended with problems and said
trade still did not reflect the potential in ties between the two countries. 
``We are anticipating greater participation from American investors in
modernising the Russian economy,'' he told Tass. ``We need to pay serious
attention to cooperation for small and medium-sized business and...cooperation
between regions.'' 

*******

#3
VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN ON RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
MOSCOW, MARCH 8, 1998 /FROM RIA-NOVOSTI CORRESPONDENT
REGINA LUKASHINA/ -- Please don't list me among those people,
who have linked our current interview with the next presidential
elections for the sake of some populism.
This was stated here the other day by Russian Prime
Minister Victor Chernomyrdin, who was taking part in a new TV
Channel Two talk show called Podrobnosti V Subbotu (Saturday
Update). Any TV viewer can phone the Russian Premier direct and
ask him any question.
Talking about the next presidential elections, Chernomyrdin
stressed that he doesn't yet think about such elections. In his
opinion, we must now resolve a multitude of issues.
Right now, we should not think about elections, which are
going to take place more than two years from now; on the
contrary, we should think about various trouble-shooting
options, Chernomyrdin went on to say.
The Russian Government would like people to feel that their
life has changed. My colleagues and I have to think about this
today, Chernomyrdin said in conclusion. 

VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN ON TSARIST FAMILY'S BURIAL
MOSCOW, MARCH 8, 1998 /FROM RIA-NOVOSTI CORRESPONDENT
REGINA LUKASHINA/ -- There must be no pomposity and splendor
during the burial of the last Russian emperor Nicholas II and
his family members.
This was stated here the other day by Russian Prime
Minister Victor Chernomyrdin, who was taking part in a new TV
Channel Two talk show called Podrobnosti V Subbotu (Saturday
Update).
The Premier reminded his audiences that the Government's
extraordinary session, which was held last week on orders from
President Boris Yeltsin of the Russian Federation, has decided
on the tsarist family's final resting place.
The tsarist family's remains will be buried July 17, 1998
at St. Petersburg's Peter and Paul cathedral.
Perhaps Nicholas II was not the most brilliant emperor on
our history; however, his execution together with the entire
family and children is a barbaric act, which also doesn't befit
all of us, Chernomyrdin went on to say.
In his opinion, the forthcoming funeral should be marked by
any pomposity and splendor because this is not the right
pretext.
However, we must close this ignominious page of our
history, Victor Chernomyrdin said in conclusion. 

VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN ON CHILD BENEFITS
MOSCOW, MARCH 8, /FROM RIA-NOVOSTI CORRESPONDENT REGINA
LUKASHINA/ -- We must pay child benefits to needy families, in
the first place, Russian Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin said
here the other day.
He was taking part in a new TV Channel Two talk show called
Podrobnosti V Subbotu (Saturday Update).
According to Chernomyrdin, such benefits are also being
paid to the families of big-time businessmen and to other
people, who can't be called poor; this is seen as something
absurd, he added.
The Russian Premier reminded his audiences that such
benefits are being paid by the Russian Federation's constituent
members; their expenses in this category are being taken into
account during the calculation of federal-budget transfers, e.g.
regional-aid packages.
Regional administrators are supposed to determine
top-priority financial appropriations; however, child benefits
don't always fit into this list of priorities.
In Chernomyrdin's words, such arrears are lacking in
Moscow, St. Petersburg, Samara, Kaluga, Moscow, Kaliningrad and
some other regions.
However, most Russian territories owe rather impressive
sums in this category; in fact, such nationwide debts exceed the
14-billion rouble mark.
A question was asked by a person from Russia's Stavropol
territory, which accounts for 290 million roubles of such debts;
and no child benefits have been received there during the last 8
months.
Victor Chernomyrdin called on the territorial Governor to
answer this question as soon as possible.

VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN ON PENSION ISSUES
MOSCOW, MARCH 8, 1998 /FROM RIA-NOVOSTI CORRESPONDENT
REGINA LUKASHINA/ -- The Russian Government is so far unable to
index all pensions. However, there are no pension arrears; nor
will such arrears appear in the future.
This was stated here the other day by Russian Prime
Minister Victor Chernomyrdin, who was taking part in a new TV
Channel Two talk show called Podrobnosti V Subbotu (Saturday
Update).
Replying to TV watchers' questions, Chernomyrdin also said
that the Internal Revenue Service has introduced rather
complicated tax-declaration forms; that department still has to
do a lot of work in this field, he added.
Talking about his own 1997 tax declaration, Chernomyrdin
assured his audiences that he will submit it right on time,
adding that his tax declaration will be made public.
Chernomyrdin also said a few words about the decision to
strip First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov of his body
guards, adding that, as of today, the reliable and safe work of
Cabinet members can be ensured without personal body guards.
Besides, this measure will make it possible to save a lot of
money for social programs. 

*******

#4
Excerpt
Washington Post
8 March 1998
[for personal use only]
The Search For Miss Right Takes a Turn Toward Russia
'Mail-Order Brides' of the '90s Are Met Via Internet and on 'Romance Tours'
By Lena H. Sun

After Ken Wells's divorce two years ago, he wanted to date again. But 
the engineer, 38, had a hard time meeting women. His home is on a U.S. 
military base in the Pacific Ocean, 2,000 miles from the nearest big 
cities.
So, he turned to the Internet. He typed in the key words, "Russian 
women," and for hours each night, he clicked through screenfuls of 
pretty women. He bought the addresses of about 600 from 15 international 
marriage agencies.
"I had a file on everybody," he said. "The phone would ring in the 
middle of the night, and she'd say, 'This is Svetlana from Russia,' and 
I'd be digging through my files trying to find who the hell they are."
Eventually, he found Irina Morozova, 22, a shy nurse from outside 
Moscow, whom he met through a Bethesda-based agency.
Wells is among the growing number of American men turning to 
international agencies to find wives from overseas -- "mail-order 
brides." The companies are part of an exploding multimillion-dollar 
industry that markets women from developing countries as potential 
brides to men in Western nations. For the last two decades, most have 
come from the Philippines or elsewhere in Asia.
But in recent years, easy access to the Internet and political changes 
have sparked huge interest -- and booming business -- for companies 
seeking to introduce women from the former Soviet Union.
Wells went to Russia to meet Morozova last year. She was cautious at 
first because a previous American suitor had mistreated her, she said. 
But Wells was funny and kind.
Over Valentine's Day weekend, she flew to New York on a fiancee visa. At 
sunset today aboard a sailboat in Hawaii's Kaneohe Bay, the couple plans 
to wed. Wells figures his happiness is worth every bit of the $15,000 
he's spent in the process. "I think it will be the greatest day of my 
life," he said last week.
Across the country, agencies have sprung up. "It's really, really just 
ballooned in the last couple of years," said John Adams, a co-owner of A 
Foreign Affair. The Phoenix-based company has had more than 15,000 male 
customers since it started three years ago -- when there were "a 
handful" of competitors.
Now, there are 200 to 250 introduction companies doing business in the 
United States, and a third started within the last year, according to 
industry estimates. At least 80 focus exclusively on women from Russia 
and Eastern Europe; others expanded to include Russian women.
Adams's company features about 3,500 women from Russia, Eastern Europe, 
Asia and Latin America on its Web site.
The agencies portray Russian women as "traditional" and 
"family-oriented," untainted by Western feminism. "Their views of 
relationships have not been ruined by unreasonable expectations," says 
one Web ad. They play to men's desires for women who are white - -- yet 
exotic, several men said.
No one knows how many marriages take place each year through such 
companies. The companies say they don't keep statistics, and Immigration 
and Naturalization Service records don't distinguish between foreigners 
who married Americans the old-fashioned way and those who used an 
agency.
Critics of the companies say they not only demean women, but as 
unregulated international enterprises, they are fraught with potential 
problems, including marriage fraud and domestic violence.
"This is not to say that some aren't bona fide marriages," said T. 
Alexander Aleinikoff, a former senior INS official. But "given the 
chances for abuse and exploitation, should we be handing out visas that 
are not subject to quotas, where the industry is totally unregulated?"
Several agency owners defended their services as a cost-effective way to 
increase the options when looking for a mate.
Congress, reacting to the industry's growth and to anecdotal evidence of 
problems, passed a 1996 law that requires agencies to give information 
about marriage fraud, legal residency and domestic violence to women 
they recruit or risk $20,000 fines. The legislation, introduced by Sen. 
Herb Kohl (D-Wis.), estimated that 2,000 to 3,500 American men find 
wives through such agencies each year.
The INS plans to report to Congress this spring on the extent of 
suspected fraud and abuse in brokered marriages. The agency also hopes 
to publish proposed rules by June to implement the law.
INS and State Department officials say problems appear to be rare. But 
they say they don't really know....

******

#5
InterPress Service
Title: MEDIA-RUSSIA: Copyright Pirates Run Riot
By Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW, Mar 7 (IPS) - The 19th century social revolutionary Pierre-
Joseph Proudhon once remarked: 'all property is theft'.
Today, that socialist dictum has been updated in post-communist
Russia to: 'all intellectual property is theft'.
A stroll through Moscow's Mitino market reveals the poor state of
the Russian government's current clamp down on theft of
'intellectual property' - the illegal copying of copyright
material. Market stalls are piled high with pirated CDs, videos,
instructional manuals and computer software of every kind.
CD-ROM 'collections' of popular software such as Microsoft's
Windows 95, and dozens of other products are sold openly for just
20 new roubles (3.3 dollars), a fraction of the cost of a
legitimate program bought from a computer store.
Pirate video copies of blockbuster movies, including the multiple
Oscar nominated 'Titanic', are on sale here for around 30-35 new
roubles and music CDs can be picked up for half that. The
Saturday morning market in Mitino, a suburb of the capital, is
routinely packed, with traffic to and from the marketplace jamming
the main Pyatnitskoe highway out of town.
Russia is the perfect market for software pirates; it has
hundreds of thousands of well educated people familiar with
computers, but who barely have the money to buy the essentials.
Stolen software makes it all possible. Small surprise then that 91
percent of software used in Russia has been pirated, according to
''Business Software Alliance'', an anti-piracy industry group that
includes Microsoft.
In Moscow last year, Microsoft supremo Bill Gates said that the
pirate software trade not only damages his business, but more
importantly for Russia, is starving out the country's own software
developers.
The Business Software Alliance also is targeting some mainstream
companies in Russia , including government agencies, that make
full use of pirate software. As much as 90 percent of all Russian
organisations, it claims, is making use of pirated software.
''The police crackdown has become reality, the piracy rate is
gradually going down and that will help the market grow,'' says
Leonid Podshibikhin, deputy director of the Russian Agency for
Protection of Software Copyright.
However, he admitted that it could take years to reduce the scale
of piracy. The industry estimates losses to pirates in 1997 alone
ran to about 400 million dollars for publishing, music and films;
and anything between 200 and 300 million on computer software and
CD-ROMs.
Andrei Malgin, general manager of Center-Plus publishing in
Moscow says that some order is emerging from the chaos,
particularly in the publishing and cinema sector. He says that the
existing legislation on copyright protection is adequate, but
enforcement remains a serious problem.
Even the brazen pirates who duplicate Malgin's monthly magazine
'Voyage' under the cover title 'Voyage-Recreation' are hard to
nail down. The pirate editions are sold in Moscow, but the fake
publication is registered in a small village in Buriatia region,
some 7,000 kilometres east of Moscow. According to Russian law,
the formal complaint against pirates must be filed where the
offending company is registered.
Russia completes a substantive copyright law reform in 1995 and
this year new criminal code makes software piracy a crime, along
with other breaches of intellectual property rights, that carry
jail sentences for convicted offenders. Most however are fined,
and most pirates can easily pay.
''It's complete lawlessness amounting to banditry as far as
intellectual property in Russia is concerned,'' says Sergei
Sharakshane, editor of Voyage's sister publication, the Center-
Plus daily newspaper. ''Even when the legal process is completed
there are still gangsters who find loopholes in the law.''
If loopholes cannot be found, bullet holes are made. Last
September prominent Russian publisher Alexander Krutik was shot
dead by unknown assassins on the stairs of his house. He was head
of the Drofa publishing house, which prints about 80 percent of
Russia's legal textbooks, but is plagued by countless counterfeit
editions.
Official contracts to publish legal books in Russia's reforming
society were estimated to be worth 20 million dollars to Drofa.
The competition for a cut of this trade was deadly. Drofa's deputy
director of publishing was murdered in November 1996.
Interior ministry sources say both killings are believed to be
the work of contract killers hired by pirate publishers squeezed
by Drofa's relentless efforts to stop counterfeit publication of
their works.
The Russian Society of Authors (RSA) participated in settling
some 400 copyright conflicts last year, but the number is
increasing, says RSA lawyer Guennadi Zareev. Some RSA
representatives have received threats or have been assaulted he
told IPS.
The biggest market for the pirates is in illegal copies of
feature films. Last July, Jack Valenti, head of the Motion Picture
Industry of America, won Kremlin promises for an all-out war
against video piracy.
Now Russian television regularly features anti-piracy messages,
and the police regularly raid street stalls and kiosks,
confiscating counterfeit tapes and fining the vendors. Pirate
music vendors have also been targeted, with police last year
seizing some 300,000 illegally copied CDs in dozens of raids in
Moscow alone.
Effective action against copyright piracy is now a key
precondition for Russian membership of the World Trade
Organisation (WTO). But for some Russians at least the copyright
row is a two-edged sword.
Notorious ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky notes how Moscow
ordered a ban on Russian distillers and winemakers labelling their
products as 'cognac' and 'champagne' - ahead of last year's state
visit to Moscow by French president Jacques Chirac.
France insists that only drinks made in the French regions of
Cognac and Champagne deserve the title. But Zhirinovsky says that
'Vodka' is a pure Russian brand name, and that its use by foreign
distillers also should be banned. 

*******

#6
Yeltsin says women can do more for Russia
By Ron Popeski 

MOSCOW, March 8 (Reuters) - President Boris Yeltsin led Russians on Sunday in
the annual outpouring of praise for their long-suffering womenfolk on
International Women's Day, but also suggested they could be more active in
affairs of state. 
``It is long established that building a house, putting up its walls and roof,
is the job of a man. But they call on you, our women, to ensure the home is a
comfortable one,'' Yeltsin said in a televised Kremlin address marking the
holiday. 
``For now, your role is mainly within the family. But I am certain that if
your experience is needed for your region, your republic, and even the entire
country, you won't let us down.'' 
The president said Russia's well-being depended on its ability ``to forge
compromises. You do this better than others. This is what women are all about.
They think about peace, their children's future. And that means the country's
future.'' 
Yeltsin's speech, stiffly delivered standing by a large bouquet of flowers,
was one of many from leaders in Russia and other parts of the former Soviet
Union extolling women for their beauty, tenderness and ability to run a
household. 
Both under Soviet rule and since the 1991 fall of communism, International
Women's Day, March 8, is traditionally the second most important holiday of
the year after New Year. 
Men abandon their traditional high-handed attitudes and heap flowers,
chocolates and perfume on wives and girlfriends while still expecting them to
cook a festive meal. 
The holiday spawns advertising campaigns on television and on billboards now
cluttering Moscow boulevards and sends men usually unfamiliar with shopping
hunting for last-minute gifts. Roses in central Moscow markets were selling on
Sunday for the equivalent of $8 apiece, more than twice the usual price. 
Most women in Russia, where feminism is confined to a tiny minority, bask in
the compliments. But many dismiss speeches as hypocritical after seven years
of plunging living standards. 
``How can anyone talk about a holiday, when our factory hasn't paid our wages
since December?'' Galina, 55, said as she scurried home with two bags of
shopping. ``Our leaders haven't the slightest idea what life is like at the
bottom.'' 
The Soviet leadership used the holiday to vaunt equality of the sexes it said
was absent in capitalist society. But despite improvements in health care and
benefits, any suggestion that women enjoy equal rights remains little more
than a sham. 
Soviet Women with large families were praised as ``Hero Mothers.'' The first
Soviet woman cosmonaut, Valentina Tereshkova, was held up as a role model,
though scientists now say the Soviet space programme discriminated against
women. 
Today, women are still generally kept far away from positions of
responsibility, though three now hold cabinet positions with briefs for
culture, health and small business. 
``The entire family revolves around women,'' Health Minister Tatyana
Dmitrieva
told Itar-Tass news agency. ``It is the woman who determines whether her
husband, children and ageing parents observe the rules which will keep them
healthy over the years.'' 
Women are over-represented in professions burdened with the lowest pay
scales,
like teaching and medicine. 
A deficient health care system, particularly poor ante- and post-natal care,
also puts women at a disadvantage, though strides have been made to improve
family planning and reduce the use of abortion as the main means of
contraception. 
But some attitudes were clearly changing. 
Russian television showed a ceremony in St Petersburg feting two lesbians who
had travelled to the Netherlands to register their marriage. Male homosexual
acts were illegal under Soviet rule and current laws remain vague on the
matter. 
``I want to offer my best wishes to all Russian women on March 8 with the
hope
that they will no longer have to go to Amsterdam to legalise their
relations,'' said the ``wife'' of the couple, wearing a traditional white
wedding dress. 

*******

#7
U.S. News and World Report
March 16, 1998
WORLD IN BRIEF
NATO
Ratifying a push into the East

During the cold war, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic (then part 
of Czechoslovakia) were key members of the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact, 
facing NATO along a tense East-West divide. Now, in a historic move that 
has generated little excitement or controversy in America, these 
one-time adversaries are about to join NATO. As early as this week, the 
Senate may ratify NATO's expansion. Last week, the legislation sailed 
through the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
The Clinton administration had feared strong opposition to enlarging the 
alliance, but it never emerged. Even in Russia, the reaction has been 
muted for the past year. Still, some senators want to delay any further 
expansion, such as the addition of Romania and Slovenia. The critics are 
leery of the official cost estimates for the current round of expansion, 
which have plummeted from $35 billion over 13 years to $2 billion over 
10 years. The U.S. share has dropped from $1.5 billion to just $400 
million, a figure derided by some analysts as wildly unrealistic.--Kevin 
Whitelaw

*******

#8
New York Times
8 March 1998
[for personal use only]
Victor Chernomyrdin: Hero to U.S., Yawn to Russia
By MICHAEL R. GORDON

MOSCOW -- When Russia's prime minister summed up his accomplishments for the
past five years, he was a little weak on what former President George Bush
liked to call the vision thing. 
"If one considers what could have been done, and then what we did do over
this long time, one can conclude that something was done," Victor Chernomyrdin
said. 
From Mikhail Gorbachev to Boris Yeltsin, the United States has a history of
pinning its hopes on Russian leaders even after their authority has begun to
wane. 
Chernomyrdin's power is growing. But Russia's second most important official
looks very different through the prism of Washington politics than he does in
Moscow. The Clinton administration sees Chernomyrdin as a stabilizing figure
to whom Washington can turn to smooth over the rough patches in the
U.S.-Russian relationship. He may not always deliver the answers Washington
wants, but he is always there to take the call. 
"He has been a steady Eddie," a senior Clinton administration official said.
"He has not been an outspoken proponent of reform but a lot of reform has
moved forward under his authority. He has learned and grown a great deal." 
But where Americans see stability, Russian reformers see stagnation. In
Moscow, Chernomyrdin is viewed as a "C-plus" student whose principal talent is
his ability to get along with seemingly everyone while avoiding tough
decisions. 
The Communists like him because he is amenable to compromise, even if it
means agreeing to a budget that vastly exceeds any credible projection of
revenue. Yeltsin likes him because he has demonstrated his loyalty and is not
a political threat. 
Russia's bankers and energy barons have embraced him as their best hope of
retaining their inside connections after Yeltsin leaves the scene. 
"Chernomyrdin has been practically selected by the oligarchy as a successor
to Yeltsin," said Andrei Piontkovsky, a Russian political analyst. "They
choose him because he is ready to insure the status quo, the same incestuous
relationship between power and money." 
If Chernomyrdin can get along with Communists as well as energy barons, it
is because he has been both. The son of a truck driver, the 59-year-old
Chernomyrdin began as a compressor operator in central Russia. 
Later, he worked for the local Communist Party in the city of Orsk, and
became the minister of the Soviet gas industry in 1985. When the ministry was
transformed into Gazprom, the huge and semi-privatized natural gas monopoly,
Chernomyrdin became its first chairman. 
His big political break came in 1992 when Yegor Gaidar, the pro-capitalist
reformer, was ousted as prime minister. Chernomyrdin had assailed the
"romantic" infatuation with the free market. But as a pragmatist, he now talks
about the need for economic reform. 
Because of his long connection to Gazprom, he is commonly viewed as one of
Russia's wealthiest men. Chernomyrdin has reported an annual income of about
$7,800, reflecting his annual salary, and an estate worth about $50,000, but
no securities or shares in Gazprom, an income declaration virtually nobody in
Russia takes at face value. 
In a sense, Russia has had a preview of a Chernomyrdin government. Yeltsin's
drinking and poor health have meant that there have been long periods when
Chernomyrdin has been the dominant figure, and when Chernomyrdin has held the
reins, Russia has tended to drift. Chernomyrdin, however, is by no means the
worst alternative. He showed flashes of conscience in resisting the war in
Chechnya and is committed to constructive relations with the West. 
Still, one of Russia's greatest challenges is to break the grip that the
small cluster of financiers and industrialists have on the economy. And few
think Chernomyrdin is up to it. If he decides to run in the 2000 election, he
has some political strengths. For want of an alternative, much of Russia's
business elite seem prepared to back him if Yeltsin does not run. 
And Chernomyrdin has been cozying up to the financial barons and potential
campaign contributors. When he blessed the merger that created Russia's
largest oil company, he urged Russian companies to concentrate on competing
with foreign interests abroad instead of each other at home, comments that did
not fit easily with his boilerplate rhetoric about building a market economy. 
Chernomyrdin has also proved himself a resilient bureaucratic infighter. He
recently expanded his authority at the expense of Anatoly Chubais and Boris
Nemtsov, the most reform-minded senior officials in the Yeltsin government.
They were left with such politically thankless tasks as compelling Russians to
pay their taxes and phasing out housing subsidies. 
What Chernomyrdin, however, has still not been able to do is make himself
popular with the voters. His poll ratings are so low that the Russian media
that support him tend not to report them. 
The prime minister is constantly being ridiculed for his mixed metaphors,
fractured grammatical constructions and gross insults to the Russian language.
It was Chernomyrdin who defended the gas and electrical monopolies as "the
backbone of Russia's economy" and then added pointedly he would "defend this
backbone as the pupil of an eye." 
He appears to be calculating that the Kremlin political machine and the
financiers' money will enable him to succeed, much as it helped Yeltsin
reverse his disastrous ratings in the 1996 election. But Yeltsin had a spirit,
lust for combat and even charisma that Chernomyrdin lacks. 
To boost his image, Chernomyrdin is launching a new show on the RTR state
television channel on which he will respond to questions from the public. But
he is such a wooden speaker that it's not clear whether this will help or hurt
his prospects. 
"Chernomyrdin will be answering citizens' questions live on TV," quipped the
newspaper Russky Telegraf. "Is this the first sign of the upcoming
presidential election? Or maybe Yeltsin simply wants to ruin the prime
minister's chances?" 

********

#9
World: Analysis from Washington -- Democracy Helps To Guarantee National
Security
By Paul Goble

Prague, 6 March 1998 (RFE/RL) -- Many people in post-communist countries are
beginning to recognize that the pursuit of democracy does not undermine
national security but rather helps to guarantee it both in the short term
and over the longer run.
And at least some authoritarian leaders are beginning to understand that
democracy can help them develop the national security of their countries
rather than threaten it. 
That understanding has not come easily to either group. All too often,
some leaders in the region have justified their openly authoritarian rule or
more subtle limitations on democracy by pointing attention to the need to
create state structures strong enough to defend the security interests of
these countries. 
Moreover, many of these countries face challenges within and without that
make it difficult for them to move quickly toward full democracy. Indeed, in
many cases the factors that limit the spread of democracy there have
restricted it in other parts of the world as well. 
And finally, those interested in promoting democracy, especially those on
the ground there, have typically made their case in moral terms. They have
seldom talked about the positive practical consequences that democracy can
have for a country's stability both now and in the future. Indeed, they have
often seen any reference to the need for the development of national
security as a threat to themselves and their goals.
As a result, they too have limited the scope of their influence on
precisely those they most seek to change. But in many of these states,
both leaders who have focused on the need to promote the national security
of their states and activists who have devoted all their efforts to
promoting a democratic system are beginning to recognize, at least in part,
the practical benefits of those in the opposite camp.
At least some of the leaders who have sought to promote national security
by authoritarian means now understand that the stability and independence
they have achieved is far more fragile than they thought. Not only does
authoritarianism tend to deprive these leaders of the popular support that
more participatory regimes obtain through competition, but it has three
additional consequences that undermine the very possibility of national
security.
First, authoritarian regimes do not tend to give birth to a large number
of people capable of thinking and acting independently. Indeed,
authoritarian leaders tend to do everything they can to prevent the
emergence of such people. That means that in their day to day activities,
the bureaucracies of these states often cannot respond quickly and cleverly
to the challenges all around them. 
Second, authoritarian regimes do not provide people with the kind of
political responsibility that democracies inevitably do. As a result, the
number of people capable of taking over greater responsibility remains
extremely limited. In democracies by contrast, the system by itself
generates ever new generations of people capable of doing just that. 
And third, regimes led by a single power leader, one who justifies his
role because of the threats to his country from within and without, can
often die with him. And as a result, all the security that this individual
may in fact have brought his country during his lifetime can quickly
disappear along with him.
The most far-sighted of these leaders do not want that to happen.
Instead, they have an obvious interest in institutionalizing their
achievements in the area of national security. And consequently, some are
now prepared to look at the democratic process not as a threat to what they
want for their countries but as a possible ally.
Obviously, such a change in the minds of most of the more authoritarian
leaders has not gone as far as many democrats would like. But it has already
begun to happen in a few places and may spread to others as well.
Equally interesting is the process taking place among democratic
activists. Many of them are increasingly prepared to recognize that the
development and maintenance of a country that feels itself secure, democracy
itself will always be at risk. Such people see that countries at war or
under the threat of war are seldom likely to be democratic. 
And consequently, they to are beginning to recognize that the
establishment of a secure country is a prerequisite rather than a threat to
democratic development. They even are beginning to understand that democracy
by itself can seldom answer one of the most fundamental questions of
political life: the territorial extent of the state itself. 
Quite clearly, the authoritarian leaders have the furthest to travel
toward this convergence in the understanding of how to build a better
future. But the fact that there is now some indication that they are doing
just that gives rise to hope in places which have not seen much of it yet
since the euphoria at the time of the collapse of the communist system. 

*******

#10
MOSCOW DIGGERS MAKE INTERESTING DISCOVERIES UNDER
SUKHAREVSKAYA SQUARE

Moscow, March 6. /RIA Novosti Correspondent/. Moscow
diggers made interesting discoveries under Sukharevskaya
Ploshchad. Vadim Mikhailov, the Moscow diggers' leader, told RIA
Novosti today that his exploration team had approached the
recently bricked passage. On pushing away the bricks, not bound
together with a mortar, the diggers saw a chamber resembling a
section of the Kremlin's underground palace. They suppose that
an aqueduct was laid through the underground passage and
chambers in the 1930s, which has by now decayed.
The romantics of the Moscow underground ran into an old
immurement of white stone. It turned out that this immurement,
too, had been broken through some time earlier and shut up in
one section by relatively modern bricks. Do these passages lead
to the cave of the Sukhareva Tower and who laid the bricks? The
diggers continue their investigation, hoping to get answers to
these and other questions. 
Mikhailov's report last September that the diggers had been
able to discover old passages of Ivan the Terrible which lead
directly to the foundation of the Czar's palace caused a real
sensation. All dimensions of the catacombs correspond to the
information about the location of Ivan the Terrible's library
obtained by the diggers in 1989 from one of Moscow's oldest
historiographers. In addition, Mikhailov contended that in this
same year the diggers had found, in one of the Moscow
underground passages, an iron barrier, behind which, in a
chamber, there were trunks, probably with books. 

*******

#11
For more articles from The Moscow Times, check out their website at
www.moscowtimes.ru

Moscow Times
March 7, 1998 
EDITORIAL: Détente Can Best Settle Latvia Feud 

The dispute now raging between Latvia and Russia over alleged police 
brutality toward a group of pensioners staging a protest in the capital 
city of Riga is a textbook case on how to destroy good neighborly 
relations. 
Moscow is now saying the incident puts Latvia in the same league as 
Alexander Lukashenko's Belarus in terms of its abuse of human rights. 
Riga is telling the Kremlin to mind its own business and hinting that 
the protest was inspired from Moscow. 
The scuffle that sparked all this is in fact quite trivial and would no 
doubt never have amounted to much if it had not been captured on Russian 
television cameras. 
A group of pensioners, predominantly Russian speakers, were blocking a 
road in downtown Riga during a protest against cuts in their living 
standards. Police first asked the crowd to move on and then shoved them 
out of the way. 
From what the television cameras showed, their conduct was perhaps a 
little heavy-handed but certainly in no way comparable to the tactics 
used to disperse protests on the streets of Minsk last year. No one was 
seriously injured and no one was charged with wrongdoing. 
The cameras did show one incident in which a melee developed between 
some pensioners and a policeman who swung his baton. The incident was 
ugly but it scarcely deserved the diplomatic artillery barrage with 
which the Kremlin has responded. 
Latvia has also responded intransigently, refusing even to consider the 
possibility that its police went a little far. A conciliatory offer from 
Riga simply to investigate the matter would have nipped the whole 
diplomatic spat in the bud. 
Yet, the bad blood between the two sides runs too deep for either to 
behave in a civilized manner. 
Latvia and the other Baltic states still bitterly resent the 50 years 
they spent under Soviet occupation and regard the presence of a large 
ethnic Russian minority, especially in Riga and in parts of Estonia, as 
a threat to their national security. 
While the Kremlin now accepts the Balts' independence, it has a 
legitimate gripe about the treatment of the Russian minorities, who are 
unable to obtain citizenship and face other forms of discrimination. 
The reason that the pushing and shoving on the streets of Riga has 
stirred up so much emotion is that the pensioners represent this 
disadvantaged minority. 
The high emotions and political point scoring of this dispute help no 
one. Latvia will best protect its security interests by fostering 
friendlier links with its bigger neighbor. Détente is also the best way 
for Moscow to help the Russian minorities in the Baltics. 

********

#12
New York Times
March 8, 1998
Letter
A Bigger NATO Is Good for Europe

To the Editor: 
You express doubts about expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty 
Organization (editorials, March 1 and 5). 
If you truly believe that NATO's "core purpose, defense against the 
Soviet bloc, is obsolete," you should take the next step and propose 
that we disband the alliance altogether. But if you concede that in a 
dangerous world the United States still needs an alliance with Europe, 
you need to come up with a better rationale for closing NATO's doors to 
some of our closest European friends. 
You rightly say that "East-West divisions are evaporating." Yet you do 
not ask what would happen to this trend if we told 200 million people in 
a dozen Central and Eastern European countries that they can never be 
part of Europe's pre-eminent security alliance just because of Russia's 
outdated suspicions. 
You are right that the stability of Europe "depends heavily on whether 
Russia completes its transition to democracy and a market economy." But 
you forget that Russia will not become a modern European power if it 
continues to look upon Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic as a 
buffer zone that separates it from the rest of Europe. 
You sell Russia short when you assume that Russian attitudes about 
Central Europe will never change. You ignore the progress Russia has 
made, with the United States, on arms control: from accelerating the 
destruction of weapons under the Start 1 treaty, to agreeing on the 
outlines of Start 2, to ratifying the Chemical Weapons Convention. 
Your suggestion that the European Union will promote unity in a way that 
embraces rather than excludes Russia is also puzzling. Russia is not 
only excluded from the foreseeable course of E.U. enlargement, but the 
E.U. has also told likely entrants such as Poland and Hungary that they 
must put up new barriers to travel and trade with their eastern 
neighbors. 
NATO enlargement, on the other hand, positively requires all aspiring 
allies to build closer ties with all their neighbors, particularly with 
those not likely to join the alliance soon.

JAMES P. RUBIN
Asst. Secy. for Public Affairs
Department of State
Washington, March 5, 1998 

********