MOSCOW. Dec 29 (Interfax) - Analysts at many investment companies are in no rush to produce detailed forecasts regarding the performance of the Russian Trading System (RTS) Index in 2009.

A portion of these experts has put off providing detailed forecasts until the start of the new year when the situation in both the Russian and world economy is clearer. However, other experts are providing quite lengthy estimates in these regards.

RTS should gain, providing for no further loss

Analysts at Troika Dialog (RTS: TROY) investment company are putting the growth of the RTS Index at the end of 2009 at up to 1000 points while also not ruling out the possibility of its drop to 350 points if the current world recessions turns into a depression. Another possibility would be the RTS Index reaching 1500 points if world economy growth accelerates, Troika Dialog analysts said.

Troika Dialog's current forecast is based on an oil price projection for 2009 coming to $55 per barrel with a decrease in the average rate of the ruble of 20%. The forecast also postulates a 16% annual decrease in the share capital of Russian companies.

Analysts at Renaissance Capital forecast the RTS Index to increase to 1100 points by the end of 2009.

However, these projections are based on an oil price coming to $60-$70 per barrels with a discount rate for Russia of 20%.

Analysts at Uralsib (RTS: USBN) financial company have decided to provide a forecast only for the first half of 2009 in which the RTS Index's performance can range between 500 and 1200 points.

Even though Uralsib analysts expect a very volatile and largely weak first quarter for 2009, they also foresee a stronger end to the second half of the year. In their view, by mid-2009, the RTS Index will edge close to the upper threshold of the aforementioned point range. The RTS' performance at year's end will hinge on the overall situation in the world economy, the state of the oil and other commodities markets, as well as the level of risk perceived in Russian investment on the part of market players.

Analysts at ING Bank have yet to provide a forecast on the RTS Index but have said that 550 points would be its minimum.

Analysts at UniCredit Aton forecast the RTS Index to reach 1175 points by the end of 2009 with oil prices at $76 per barrel or 886 points if the average oil price comes to $50 per barrel (the more pessimistic outcome).

Calculations without concrete forecasts

The instability and difficulties of forecasting the economic situation in both the world and Russia has, for several analysts, provided good cause for not rushing with forecasts since formulating equations when so much is unclear (forecasts on oil prices, economic growth rates and currency exchange) could lead to erroneous estimates.

Therefore, analysts at VTB Capital plan to produce their 2009 forecast at the start of the year while their counterparts at Alfa-Bank (RTS: ALFB) will publish a forecast when the situation has become more predictable and comprehensible.

According to analysts at Alfa-Bank, the value of Russian company shares will depend on the machinations of the world economy. However, this situation remains at its most unclear in comparison with the last 25 years or more, they said.