MOSCOW. Jan 31 (Interfax) - A slowdown in international economic growth is more likely than recession and although the risk of upheaval on financial markets remains high it will not have a defining impact on economic growth in Russia. This is the opinion expressed by Sigma analysts at an Interfax press conference on Thursday. The major risk is that the Russian economy will become overheated, they said.

"From our point of view, U.S. economic indicators are not of the catastrophic nature, attributable to a recession. Current macroeconomic indicators cause mixed impressions: growth in 2007 was 2.2% and in the fourth quarter - 0.6%, investment and export are growing, but at the same time the crisis in the housing sector and consumer spending data are cause for concern," Leonid Grigoryev, the president of the Energy and Finance Institute fund, said.

"The most likely scenario is a slow down in the world economy not recession," he said. "The risk of upheaval on financial markets remains high, just as the threat of it being caused by the panic of investors, consumers and governments."

"The impact of the crisis on the Russian economy will probably be limited," he said. The main contribution to an increase in demand for oil in the world comes from China and India. "Amid a limited world oil supply, a tense demand and supply balance, geopolitical instability in the Persian Gulf, the average price forecast for oil this year remains somewhat higher than in 2007," he said.

Commenting on a possible reduction in the influx of capital to the country, Grigoryev said that in the last months "emerging markets" suffered the consequences of tensions on the financial markets of developed countries much less.

"With high prices on raw material goods and an influx of capital, it can with a rather high likelihood be said that the influence of the world financial crisis will not have a defining impact on Russian economic growth," Grigoryev said, voicing the opinion of the Sigma analysts.

"The main threats to stability and stable development of the Russian economy are of a domestic and long-term systematic nature, linked with the weakness of public and political institutes, which do not provide adequate communication with society, and the weakness and volatility of economic institutes," he said.

"The immediate risks to the Russian economy are not very great," said Evsei Gurvich, the head of the Economic Expert Group. Because of Stabilization Fund reserves "the Russian economy will not feel changes to oil prices even in a wide range," he said.

The problems "are not mid-term, but long-term in nature and linked with the economic policy inside the country," Gurvich said. The proposed measures to reduce inflation are "slight compared with the problem," he said.

"The fundamental reason for inflation is the overheating of our economy," Gurvich said. Domestic demand is growing at a very high pace and investment is insufficient to satisfy this, leading to a significant rise in imports. Other signs of overheating are high inflation and fast foreign debt growth through companies' foreign borrowing.

It is necessary to "limit credit expansion and follow an efficient budget policy," Gurvich said. To solve the problems of an overheated economy, you "have to pay with slower economic growth," he said. "China followed that road, but we do not even discuss such measures," he said.