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#13 - JRL 2008-183 - JRL Home
IMF downgrades 2008 Russian GDP growth forecast to 7%

WASHINGTON, October 8 (RIA Novosti) - The International Monetary Fund revised Wednesday Russia's 2008 GDP growth forecast from 7.1% to 7% and raised its inflation projection for the country from 13.8% to 14% amid the ongoing global financial crisis.

"In Russia, the growth forecast for 2008 reflects a stronger-than-expected performance early in the year, rising terms-of-trade gains, and a longer-than-expected fiscal stimulus package. But growth is set to weaken appreciably, reflecting slowing world demand and tightening financial conditions," the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook.

According to the IMF, GDP growth in Russia is expected to fall to 5.5% and inflation ease to 12% in 2009.

The authors of the report said the world economy was slowing rapidly, with many advanced economies close to recession and emerging economies also generally decelerating.

"The world economy is entering a major downturn in the face of the most dangerous financial shock in mature financial markets since the 1930s," the report said.

The Russian government's GDP growth forecast for 2008 remains unchanged at 7.8%. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin earlier said the economy could grow by up to 8% this year.

Inflation in Russia stood at 0.8% in September compared with the government's forecast of 0.4-0.6%, reaching 10.6% in January-September, the country's statistics agency said on Monday.

The government's inflation forecast for 2008 is 11.8%.