Russian pundits disagree over recognition of Abkhaz, S Ossetian independence
Interfax
Moscow, 21 August: Russian political analysts believe that the possibility of Russia's recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is becoming increasingly realistic.
"After the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict, Russia has come several steps closer to a decision on the recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia," political analyst Vyacheslav Nikonov has said.
Moreover, the analyst believes that it is so far premature to speak about Russia definitely beginning all procedures to recognize Abkhazia's independence in the very near future.
"I think that this will not necessarily take place, since recognition of independence is not advantageous to Russia, and the preservation of the current status quo is more preferable," he said.
Moscow's deliberation in the resolution of this issue will demonstrate "Russia's diplomatic flexibility" to the world community, Nikonov emphasized.
At that, he did not rule out that besides Russia independent Islamic states could also recognize Abkhazia's independence.
At the same time, president of the Effective Policy Foundation Gleb Pavlovskiy does not agree that Moscow is interested in the preservation of the current status of the unrecognized republic.
"In the situation which has emerged today, and above all taking into account the factor of the will of the nations and also of the Medvedev-Sarkozy agreement, which contains a point about the conditions of the safety of the Abkhaz and South Ossetian peoples, Russia virtually does not have another alternative, apart from recognizing independence," Pavlovskiy told Interfax.
Pavlovskiy believes that the two republics' security can only be guaranteed by means of their recognition and the conclusion of agreements on the presence of Russian troops with the leaders of the new independent states.
The analyst also believes that discussions about changing the peacekeeping format when preserving the unrecognized republics' current status do not correspond with Russia's interests. "We will enter an impasse, and our troops will constantly be at risk of criticism from the West. The right of Russian peacekeepers to be in the conflict zone will be called into question. They will specially create conflicts for Russia and its partners, first of all in Europe," he said.
"Today, the option of recognizing independence is ailing but it is the strategically less contentious option for Russia than the preservation of the status quo, which is heating up international polemic and threatening to spoil Moscow's relations with the West once and for all," believes that analyst.
As has been reported, national gatherings of Abkhazia and South Ossetia appealed to Russia on Thursday to recognize their independence.
First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma already announced that he is not ruling out the possibility of addressing the country's leadership next Monday (25 August) about the recognition of Abkhazia's independence.
According to him, the Duma's One Russia faction is intending to raise the question about South Ossetia.