From: Petr Neev <pvn@capitalconsulting.ru>
Subject: Main results of the Georgian conflict
Date: Wed, 13 Aug 2008
Main results of the Georgian conflict
By Petr Neev
President, Capital Consulting Group, Moscow
• Saakashvily and Kosovo
Recognition of Kosovo anchored by US provoked separatist upsurge in Georgia. As if in order to completely align the conflict with Kosovo case Saakashvily attacked South Ossetia causing heavy civilian casualties and mass refugee flows. Moscow immediately voiced its intention to recognize independence of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia providing direct military presence. Saakashvily played into the hands of Russia trying to control the region.
• Saakashvily framed US
Despite widely spread assumptions that US knew about and approved the attack there is no such proof. US reaction was clearly delayed and flickering. Taking into account Saakashvily’s conspiracy style it is obvious that by provoking Russia to directly use regular army he tried to drag US and NATO into confrontation. The position of US, which is not ready for military intervention in this peripheral region, may look weak versus Russia, but this is not the case.
• Saakashvily discredited himself by his own PR
Massive spin doctor efforts to present Russia as an aggressor disclosed by today’s The Times do not add credibility to Saakashvily portrait but again raise questions about his real intentions in the conflict.
• US double standard and anti-Western sentiment
Unconditionally supporting Saakashvily and his PR interpretations against Russia, refusing to accept simple truth that Georgian regular army, not separate small units, was the first to attack legitimate Russian peacemakers and immediately in the first hours demolish the peaceful city full of civilian population and regionally important social infrastructure US has again provoked questions about its role as a guarantor of human rights and democracy. (Again compare US reaction to independence of Kosovo). US reaction has reignited anti-liberal and anti-western sentiment in Russia and satellite republics. Now corrupt bureaucrats have got another set of trump cards blaming US for sponsoring "Orange Revolutions" and creating hostile ‘pro-American regimes’ ready to use military force against peaceful Russia and its allies.
• Russian domestic policy, Putin and Medvedev
Massive domestic official Russian patriotic media propaganda has revealed lack of confidence in people support on the part of national political leadership. Putin demonstrated strength, determination and the ability to ‘kick asses’ and, by meticulously diminishing Medvedev, ability to control power. Yet Putin's political victory internally is questionable: war is no longer popular in the increasingly frivolous, hedonistic and Internet driven Russia. Putin is getting more absorbed by the military party while Medvedev is winning sympathy internationally and with progressive strata tired of feudal monopolist pressure inside Russia. There is no wins in the conflict, only losses:
• Ossetian civilians killed in thousands, hundreds of Russian, Georgian military casualties
• Russia will be wasting much more money and people without clear benefit: it will not be able to destabilize strategically and economically important alternative transit oil supplies through Baku-Tbilisi-Jeihan pipeline. Russian liberals and citizens oriented to European values will be again suppressed by hard liners under the pretext of ‘hostile US-NATO policies’
• Georgia is militarily crippled, politically and economically undermined
• US international reputation has been damaged, confrontation with Russia has reached a new level threatening world security
All the blame is on Saakashvily. He must retire or be made to retire with possible further war crimes investigation in Georgia or by the World Tribunal. Playing politics on human bones will irrevocably undermine ideals of Western democracy and progressive civilization values thus making way for ultranationalist feudal regimes all over the world. This is the time to take a stand without exceptions even for ‘friends’.