Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2007
From: Patrick Armstrong <gpa@magma.ca>
Subject: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREDICTION
Since it’s the season to put down one’s bets on Putin’s successor, here is mine:
I believe that we have some clues. In his marathon press conference on 1 February, Putin said: “I have said many times now that there will be no successors. There will be candidates for the post of president of the Russian Federation” and “I reserve the right to express my preferences, but I will do this only once the election campaign begins”. When we add to these statements the fact that there are now two “top down” political parties – United Russia ( ) and Just Russia ( ) – and that each of them will presumably run a candidate, the future comes clearer.
The fatal defect of Kremlinology is its obsession with personalities but Putin is a man with policies that he wants to have continued: “What we need is for there to be responsible leadership, responsible authorities in the country after 2007 and 2008, authorities who will show that they are continuing the main elements of the policies the current leadership has put in place over these last years”. There are several potential candidates from Putin’s team out there and Putin has been giving them things to do to gain them exposure and test them. Two are certainly Sergey Ivanov and Dmitriy Medvedev. Putin can be confident that some member of his team – a tested and trusted member – will be the next president; it matters less to him who it is.
Therefore, my bet is that all we will get out of Putin, during the election campaign, is him saying that that either A or B (or C?) is a responsible man and would make a good president – and that he supports A and B and supports their policies. The inside manoeuvring will be the appearance of A and B (and C?) as candidates.
So, here are the candidates for the next presidential election: A, B, C?, Zhirinovskiy, a Communist, miscellaneous quarrelsome “liberals” and a couple of wrestlers/biznesmen, what have you. A and B will win the first round, and one of them will win the second.
For Putin it’s win-win – one of his people gets in, his general policy direction continues and the Russian electorate makes the choice.