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Next Duma Likely To Have Two Parties - Analysts

MOSCOW. Oct 19 (Interfax) - Russian sociologists believe that turnout in the coming State Duma elections will be around 50%, and that only two parties are likely to make it into the parliament.

"There is a high probability that the next Duma will be a two-party parliament," Lev Gudkov, director of the Levada Center, a pollster, told a Friday press conference at the Interfax central office in Moscow.

Quoting a poll, he said over 80% of Russians are ready to vote for United Russia, which in this case would win over two-thirds of seats.

"So far the situation is as follows -an overwhelming majority of United Russia MPs and a small addition of Communists. There may be arguments between those who are nostalgic of the past and those who are interested in preserving the current system. The main result will be the conservation of the present state of affairs," Gudkov said. Judging by the sentiments of the respondents, it is questionable whether the Liberal Democrats or the Fair Russia party will make it into the Duma, he said.

Meanwhile, Boris Dubin, head of the center's section for social and political studies, told the press conference that the main distinctive feature of the coming elections is that they are predetermined.

"These will be elections of a different type. Russia has not seen such elections. Predetermined victory is a feature of the present situation. About 80-90% of those who intend to vote think the outcome is predetermined," he said.

"Everyone thought that presidential elections would be the most important in Russia. But the present situation shows that the upcoming elections will be more important. People will be voting for the existing system of power, not a party or leader," Dubin said. The majority will follow the principle "be what may, the most important is that it not get worse," he said.

Dubin said 49% of respondents think the elections will be unfair and results will be rigged for the benefit of the party of power.

In their commentaries Gudkov and Dubin relied on the results of polls conducted among 1,600 adults on October 12-16. Respondents were interviewed at their homes in 128 cities and towns in 46 territories in Russia. The statistical error does not exceed 3%.