From: "Alexander Melikishvili" <alexanderm@miis.edu>
Subject: Response to Kupchan's article in Johnson's Russia List, Issue No.26, January 28, 2006 [re: Georgia]
Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006
I would like to ask you to publish the following response to the article entitled "Wilted Rose. Sukhumi Dispatch" by Charles A. Kupchan, which appeared in the Johnson's Russia List (Issue No.26) on January 28, 2006 and which simultaneously appeared in The New Republic of February 6, 2006. Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions:
Alexander Melikishvili
Research Associate
International Export Control Observer, Co-Editor
Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Monterey Institute of International Studies
I want to stress that my response does not reflect the views of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies or the Monterey Institute of International Studies.
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If one were to look for a hodgepodge of unexamined assumptions hastily assembled into the semblance of an analytical article with an alarmist bend, than one should look no further than the piece entitled "Wilted Rose: Sukhumi Dispatch" by Charles A. Kupchan, which appeared in the Johnson's Russia List on January 28, 2006 (Issue No.26) and was simultaneously published in The New Republic of February 6, 2006. The main thesis of this article is that given the increasing number of signs indicating President Saakashvili's concentration of power and authoritarian leanings, it is time for Washington to revise its policy toward Georgia by reining in his regime. Otherwise, the author contends, Georgia will become "yet another faltering democracy wracked by ethnic conflict." This argument incidentally resembles a recurrent variation on the theme of a "failed state" that has been voiced time and again in relation to Georgia as well as other states of Transcaucasus in the circles of Western Caucasus-watchers. However in order to examine what substantiates such Cassandrian prophecies about the fate of Georgia it is necessary to deconstruct Kupchan's line of thinking.
First, to be sure, Kupchan rightly highlights some of the worrying trends in Georgia, but he omits others. For instance, he never mentions the growing self-censorship in the Georgian media or the fact that the recent consolidation of large media agencies has been carried out by business moguls closely associated with the high-ranking government officials. Similarly, the author fails to notice that one of the biggest problems in today's Georgia is the virtual absence of constructive opposition on the political scene. Selective impressions from conversations with such opposition figures as David Zurabishvili and David Usupashvili are unfortunately sufficient for Kupchan to draw premature conclusions about the state of Georgian politics. Nothing can be further from the truth. While President Saakashvili, despite occasional slumps, still enjoys popular support, the same cannot be said of the fractious opposition camp, populated by such long-discredited figures as the nationalist demagogue Irakly Tsereteli or the socialist populist Shalva Natelashvili. And it is certainly a gross exaggeration to call Mr. Usupashvili an "opposition leader." Even a cursory look at the atomized nature of the current opposition reveals that it is very difficult to name a person who can qualify for such a role. One person who does come to mind is the former Georgian Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili, who may yet emerge as a maverick politician capable of rallying opposition, but in any case it would not be Mr. Usupashvili. A mistake of this sort on the part of the author indicates a poor familiarity with the political dynamics in Georgia.
Second, based on fragmentary impressions from conversations with few opposition figures and a trip to the secessionist province of Abkhazia, Kupchan predicts the rise of the Georgian avatar of Milosevic. According to this scenario, Saakashvili, armed with nationalist rhetoric and supported by the United States, would embark on the path towards forceful restoration of territorial integrity that will plunge Georgia into the abyss of internecine ethnic warfare. The author uses the recent increase in military spending as one empirical confirmation of this intention. It is curious to note that an effort to strengthen such an undisputed instrument of national sovereignty as the armed forces is instantly interpreted as a negative development motivated by hostile intent. What Kupchan forgets is that on the official policy level, both the previous regime of Shevardnadze and the current one of Saakashvili have consistently renounced the use of force in resolving the "frozen" conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Georgian government has repeatedly emphasized a political solution to these conflicts. In this regard, it is perplexing that Kupchan completely neglects the comprehensive conflict settlement plan for South Ossetia, which the Georgian government unveiled last year and has won enthusiastic approval from the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE). Instead, the author prefers to concentrate on the everyday problems experienced by the residents of Abkhazia and sees the en masse dispensation of Russian citizenship to them not as a "velvet annexation" of Georgian territory by the Russian Federation but as a clever way to avoid the ban on travel abroad.
Finally, apart from factual mistakes in the article, such as the assertion that the Abkhaz have ethnic kin in the North Caucasus when in fact they don't, the article is constructed from scraps of information provided by people with axes to grind. With no mention of meetings with government officials, Kupchan attempts to present an accurate picture of the political landscape in Georgia. However, the end-result is an uninformed travelogue that lacks genuine insight and proves that one cannot become an expert on Georgia overnight. It is truly unfortunate that in the context of a very difficult situation in Georgia - including the impending parliamentary vote on CIS (read Russian) peacekeeping forces, the aftermath of the severe gas and energy crisis, and rapidly deteriorating relations with Russia - instead of an objective assessment of conditions in the country, the article delivers a paternalistic finger-wagging from the West. While difficulties abound, it is too early to bemoan the imaginary wilting of the rose in Georgia.