| JRL HOME | SUPPORT | SUBSCRIBE | RESEARCH & ANALYTICAL SUPPLEMENT | |
Old Saint Basil's Cathedral in MoscowJohnson's Russia List title and scenes of Saint Petersburg
Excerpts from the JRL E-Mail Community :: Founded and Edited by David Johnson
#6 - JRL 2006-11 - JRL Home
Russian Expert Says Ukrainian Cabinet Dismissal Serious Blow to Yushchenko

MOSCOW. Jan 10 (Interfax) - The dismissal of the Ukrainian government led by Yury Yekhanurov by the parliament is a serious blow to President Viktor Yushchenko's positions inside the country, said Institute of the CIS Studies Director and Russian State Duma deputy Konstantin Zatulin.

"This is a most serious blow not only to the position of Yury Yekhanurov, who has been dismissed, but also to that of President Yushchenko, who nominated Yekhanurov for prime minister in September," Zatulin told Interfax on Tuesday in comments on the Verkhovna Rada's decision to dismiss the Yekhanurov Cabinet. The vote was a result of bitter competition in the run-up to the March 26 parliamentary elections in Ukraine, he said.

The current situation in Ukraine signals that Yushchenko's clout has weakened, Zatulin said. "This premier was appointed by the president, but the next will be appointed by the Verkhovna Rada," he said.

"The parliament made a predictable decision, because it was necessary to show who is in control, in line with the constitutional reform, which took effect in Ukraine on January 1, 2005," he said.

"The parliament has shown that it is in control. But it remains a question whether the parliament can reach agreement on a candidate two months before the elections," he said.

"This is the most serious defeat 'the orange ones' have suffered since the crisis of last September," Zatulin said.

Effective Policy Foundation President Gleb Pavlovsky said that the decision to dismiss the government may spark a serious crisis that will be difficult to settle by legal means. Russia views a crisis in the neighboring state as a threat to agreements, he said.

"The parliament has used the current loopholes in the constitution, when it can already dismiss the government but has no right to form a cabinet. Therefore, it's difficult to assess the legitimacy of this decision. The current situation creates room for maneuvers, primarily for President Viktor Yushchenko," Pavlovsky told Interfax on Tuesday.

"The situation is political rather than legal, and any decision by either party will be challenged by opponents," he said.

Pavlovsky said that Yushchenko "needed a definite emergency situation ahead of parliamentary elections (due to take place on March 26), since he is losing strength on the electoral battleground."

"But he also needed his government during the election - the government the parliament has wanted to take away from him as an administrative resource. It is therefore difficult to say who will gain more advantage ahead of the elections. Everything will depend on how far Yushchenko will go in the conflict with the parliament," Pavlovsky said.

"Yushchenko could gain additional trump cards if he decides to dissolve the parliament," he added.

"But this will threaten to upset stability and will hardly be supported by the European Union, although the U.S. might back such a move," the Russian expert said.

"If the parliament is not dissolved, the situation will move into a contest of angry accusations, which is typical of Ukraine before elections. The advantage will be on the side of Yuliya Tymoshenko, to some extent, with Viktor Yanukovych and partly with small marginal parties," Pavlovsky said.