2010 - Russia's Year in Review
It is the custom of this panel to review Russia's progress throughout the year on New Year's Eve. Two thousand ten has been a hard but relatively successful year for Russia. The country continued to come out of the economic slump of 2008 to 2009 by growing at a steady, albeit not spectacular rate. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin projected in his recent TV conversation with the nation that Russia would fully restore its economy to the pre-crisis levels by early 2012. How has Russia fared in 2010? What could be described as the nation's biggest success or biggest failure in 2010? Has there been measurable progress on democracy, rule of law and basic freedoms in Russia?
President Medvedev continued to push his modernization agenda by building the Skolkovo Innovation Center and anchoring there such international technology giants as Intel, Microsoft, Nokia, and Siemens. He also continued his efforts to establish the rule of law and end corruption in Russia to make the country more attractive to foreign investment and r&d transfers.
Medvedev has visibly grown on the job and has taken impressive steps to position himself as an independent center of political authority, sometimes taking important positions at odds with his senior partner prime minister Putin. In firing Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, halting the construction of a federal highway through the Khimki Forest, allowing protesters to gather peacefully on the Triumfalnaya Square, or by challenging Putin's dictum of maintaining political stability at all costs, Medvedev has been trying to open up independent avenues for building up the political support base for his reelection bid in 2012. Medvedev's senior aides have openly declared his intention to run for the second presidential term.
Prime minister Putin, on the other hand, has shown no intention of fading away from Russia's political scene and has mounted a high-profile media and PR campaign, bordering on stunts and celebrity hunting, to maintain his image of the Superior National Leader. His return to the Kremlin in 2012 is not preordained, but appears increasingly possible and even likely, particularly after Medvedev's disastrous handling of the nationalist riots in downtown Moscow.
On the foreign policy front, Russia has made serious progress in improving relations with the West, particularly with the United States, and now even NATO, having finally emerged from the cold after its war with Georgia in 2008. The U.S.-Russian "reset," culminating in the ratification by the U.S. Senate of the New START Treaty on Christmas Eve, has become Medvedev's most important foreign policy achievement in 2010 and is turning into a domestic political asset for him for 2012. Russia has all but completed its WTO accession talks with the United States and the EU, opening the real prospect of accession in 2011, which could be another singular diplomatic achievement for president Medvedev.
With a new government in Kiev, president Medvedev has managed to dramatically improve Russia's relations with Ukraine, the nation's most important relationship in the former Soviet Union. Moscow studiously avoided confrontation with the West over its policies in the region, while toying at some point with democracy promotion and regime change in Kirgizstan and even Belarus. Some observers claimed that in 2010 Russia has finally abandoned its imperial ambitions in the near abroad.
How has Russia fared in 2010? What could be described as the nation's biggest success or biggest failure in 2010? How could president Medvedev's and prime minister Putin's performance be rated? Has Medvedev's "modernization agenda" made progress, or is it still mostly talk? Has Russia' political climate improved in 2010? Has there been measurable progress on democracy, rule of law and basic freedoms in Russia? How have the recent nationalist riots in Moscow affected Russia's politics for 2011? How will Russian foreign policy look in 2011?
Alexander Rahr, Director of the Berthold Beitz Center for Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Central Asia:
Besides the fire catastrophe in summer and the terror attack on the subway in April, 2010 has been a relatively un-dramatic year for Russia. The economy is slowly recovering, investments are returning to Russia. The biggest foreign political achievements were the winning of the Soccer World Cup in 2018, the improvement of relations with Poland and, of course, START III.
If one imagines that two years ago Russia and the West were almost approaching a new era of a second Cold War, the present pragmatic relationship seems almost a miracle. The West is not even blocking Ukraine from its return to the Russian orbit. Moreover, at the Lisbon NATO Summit Russia was offered cooperation in missile defense, which could lead to a situation where Russia becomes, together with the United States, a second protector of Europe (against outside threats).
It seems that the West has finally understood that it needs Russia in order to stabilize the world. At the same time, Russia has understood that it cannot modernize itself without partnership with the West. What could spoil the rapprochement is an anti-modernization and anti-Medvedev political turn in Russia, at the time the decision is made on who runs for president in 2012.
Vladimir Belaeff, Global Society Institute, Inc., San Francisco, CA:
If one were to believe the relentless negative propaganda from sources like the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, et alia, Russia is a dismal country on the verge of failure and chaos. Of course, the authors of such opinions seem remarkably uncaring about the consequences of the failure that they claim to see in a nuclear superpower capable of annihilating much territory several times over.
Could it be that the situation in Russia is very different? This would explain why the critics and doomsayers, knowing the "truth on the ground," are strangely indifferent to the implications of their claimed "reality."
The truth is that for Russia the year 2010 was very difficult but also very successful, especially if compared with the results of other nations.
Russia overcame the effects of the global economic crisis and resumed substantial GDP growth; maintained a positive current account balance; brought unemployment down; reduced inflation; kept sovereign debt discretionary and very low and recovered much of the gold and foreign currency reserves that had been spent in 2008 to 2009 to support the Russian economy during the crisis.
Compare these results with the failures and unrest in the UK, France, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Germany, Iceland and the Baltic States. Consider the feeble economic recovery of the United States, with high unemployment and a staggering sovereign debt. The general forecast is that America will need about 20 years (until 2030!) to return to pre-crisis levels of economic performance. For Russia, the equivalent forecast is 2012 to 2013, two years from now.
Russia also had to confront major natural disasters a drought that destroyed roughly 30 percent of the year's grain harvest and many huge wildfires. The Russian government managed to respond far better than its critics will admit. The fires were put out with minor loss of life; no major cities were affected (though several were at risk) and in three months villages that had burned completely were rebuilt, with modern houses, paved streets, Internet, new furniture and appliances and utility infrastructure entirely at the government's expense. In comparison: in New Orleans the repair of the consequences of hurricane Katrina is still unfinished after five years. Thousands of Americans are still not made whole after Katrina, which was far less widespread than the wildfires in Russia in 2010.
In 2010 many very important confidence-building events took place between Russia and its Western counterparts, not least of which was Medvedev's visit to Washington and the Silicon Valley in June. This event did not receive as much coverage in American media as it really deserved.
Regarding democracy and civil society if one does an objective comparison of the conditions in Russia with many modern countries, it will become evident that Russia's situation is far from dismal and retrograde. Russia's critics chose to ignore similar or greater defects in other societies, including those that are considered "golden standards" of the rule of law and democracy. Many Russians themselves do not realize this aspect.
The nationalist riots in Moscow were handled comparatively well. They were spectacular but limited in scope, with relatively minor losses. However, the underlying issues must be addressed in a depoliticized and objective manner.
If Russia's establishment does not solve the grievances of the heretofore-silent majority, leaders and political platforms will emerge which will take Russia in very discomforting directions. This is not an exclusively Russian problem. There is a major stirring of average citizens all over Europe and in America as well. Irresponsible policies will be challenged and major power shifts may occur if governments persist in ignoring or suppressing the grievances of the majorities.
Edward Lozansky, President, American University in Moscow and World Russia Forum in Washington, DC:
Looking back at the year 2010 from the Russian perspective, one is struck most forcibly by the contrast between major improvements of Russia's standing in international relations and its internal situation.
On the former, the Lisbon NATO summit, with Medvedev attending, is recognition by America and European allies of the changed geopolitical realities. The precarious situation in Afghanistan and an apparently endless war with Islamist terrorism convinced even the most skeptical Russia-watchers that the West definitely needs Russia on its side. The ratification of START III is another proof of the same. Leaving aside its questionable strategic importance and relevance, it can be viewed as an expression of the U.S. administration's strong intention to continue the "reset" policy which has already brought some dividends, most notably in Afghanistan and on Iran.
As for some other international issues, South Kuril Islands are more a matter of Japanese internal politics than of Russo-Japanese relations. Poland's recent rejection of Russia's report on that unfortunate air crash is not worth more than a shrug of the shoulders and cannot derail notable rapprochement. Ukraine is through with the "orange" mess and those end-of-the-year gas wars a relief for all those concerned, Europe included. Even Belarus' maverick dictator announced that he had made peace with Medvedev.
To sum up, Russia should feel pretty comfortable in terms of foreign policy. It has no external enemies except Georgia, though one cannot dismiss this threat as minimal: Mikheil Saakashvili still has many friends in Washington who are eager to use him for their geopolitical games.
After losing his military gamble the Georgian president may try to reach the same goal by inflaming the whole region. In September he outlined his rhetorical vision of a "united Caucasus" at the United Nations. "We might belong to different states and live on different sides of the mountains," he said, "but in terms of human and cultural space, there is no North and South Caucasus; there is one Caucasus that belongs to Europe and will one day join the European family of free nations, following the Georgian path."
Saakashvili's democratic credentials are pretty questionable indeed, and as we know thanks to Wikileaks, the official Washington is getting impatient with its Georgian client. Therefore, Moscow should show some patience and wait for Saakashvili to leave the scene while staying on high alert in this region.
Considering China's and other Asian countries' quick rise, Moscow is now in a position to play a skillful Eurasian card game to gain more geopolitical advantages.
The internal situation is quite a different matter. There are problems and troubles wherever you look: demography, corruption, alcoholism, drug addiction, a growing disparity between the super-rich and the poor and ethnic tensions, just to name a few.
Some of these problems can be solved by each individual taking responsibility for his/her own family. Make more kids, do not drink or take drugs, do not give or take bribes should be a very simple and understandable national idea. This can also be an easy test of Russian patriotism. It is one thing to blame the government, America, Jews or "Caucasians" for everything, but following those simple principles is quite another and more effective. A smart taxation policy can decrease the financial disparity, but dealing with ethnic antagonisms is a much more complicated issue for this multiethnic and multi-confessional country.
So far, the only specific proposal on regulating the movements of the population within and the Supreme Court decision on the issue came from premier Putin but was rejected by president Medvedev. Episodes like that may add more fuel to the Western obsession with the Putin Medvedev rivalry, but even this can be manipulated by the Kremlin on the well-known and practically unbeatable good cop bad cop pattern. That is, if the two men are smart enough to do it with the necessary finesse.
In all, this promises an entertaining prospect for the year 2011 and especially 2012. The phrase "Never a dull moment" must have been invented specifically with Russia in view.
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