Ships a warning on Syria
Russia may be sending a political signal to the U.S.
- JRL 2012-112
Tensions are escalating around Syria as Russia prepares to send naval forces in a bid to protect Russians around its military facility in Tartus.
And while the purportedly civilian mission wouldn't pose any military threat, experts say the move is a powerful political signal to the United States, warning it against military intervention.
Russia's armed forces, including the navy, are preparing an operation in the warm water port of Tartus to protect and evacuate some 100 citizens, Vedomosti reported Thursday, citing two sources in the Defense Ministry. Earlier, the Pentagon reported that Russia was poised to send three military ships to the area, but Russia's Defense Ministry denied this. According to Vedomosti sources, the military was preparing for the operation, but direct orders to dispatch the ships had not yet been issued.
"From a purely military standpoint, the United States has nothing to fear from two or even three warships sent to the facility," Yury Fyodorov, an independent expert on Russian foreign policy and international security, told The Moscow News. "But there's another problem. If the Kremlin really does decide to send such an expedition to Tartus, it will be a serious political gesture demonstrating that Moscow is ready to defend Assad militarily if need be."
If evacuating Russians was Moscow's top concern, a few civilian airliners would be sufficient for the job, Fyodorov said.
Reports of plans to send marines to the area in order to protect Russian citizens have been appearing throughout the week, and although Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told news agencies there was no indication of aggressive intent, the warnings clouded an already icy meeting Monday between U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Mexico on the sidelines of the G20 summit.
Both pledged an end to violence, but Putin's comments appeared noncommittal, even prompting British Prime Minister David Cameron to say that Putin no longer backs Assad, an interpretation that was denied by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Putin clarified his stance at the end of the G20 summit.
"I feel like I have to repeat our position," Reuters quoted Putin as saying. "We believe that nobody has the right to decide for other nations who should be brought to power and who should be removed from power."
Russia's tentative support for Syrian leader Bashar al Assad, who has been fighting a domestic insurgency that has killed some 10,000 people since March 2011, has fueled tensions in its relations with the United States, which has urged increased pressure on Assad to stop the bloodshed.
Over the past five years, up to 78 percent of Syria's arms imports came from Russia, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in March. But Moscow bristled this week over accusations from the U.S. State Department that it was sending attack helicopters to help Assad.
A Syria-bound cargo ship allegedly carrying weapons and helicopters from Russia was spotted near Scotland earlier this week, but had apparently turned back towards Russia, Reuters reported.
According to Fyodorov, if Moscow actually sends marines and ships to Syria, the scenario could easily escalate into a scandal, as it did when 200 Russian marines occupied Pristina Airport in Kosovo in 1999, leading to a confrontation with NATO.
"The leaks [about sending ships] are have an element of political pressure on the Americans, saying 'we're getting ready'," Fyodorov said. "The message is, if you're planning to send troops or launch an air attack, we're ready to respond."
Continuing reports of weapons shipments to Syria are more alarming than plans for a civilian operation, a weapons analyst with SIPRI said, but Russia's role in the conflict should not be overestimated.
Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher for SIPRI's Arms Transfers Program, told The Moscow News that the Syrian regime is armed enough, with or without foreign helicopters. "But it would be a very important political signal to the Syrian regime if Russia agreed to an embargo," he said.
Keywords: Russia, Middle East, Syria - Russian News - Russia
Tensions are escalating around Syria as Russia prepares to send naval forces in a bid to protect Russians around its military facility in Tartus.
And while the purportedly civilian mission wouldn't pose any military threat, experts say the move is a powerful political signal to the United States, warning it against military intervention.
Russia's armed forces, including the navy, are preparing an operation in the warm water port of Tartus to protect and evacuate some 100 citizens, Vedomosti reported Thursday, citing two sources in the Defense Ministry. Earlier, the Pentagon reported that Russia was poised to send three military ships to the area, but Russia's Defense Ministry denied this. According to Vedomosti sources, the military was preparing for the operation, but direct orders to dispatch the ships had not yet been issued.
"From a purely military standpoint, the United States has nothing to fear from two or even three warships sent to the facility," Yury Fyodorov, an independent expert on Russian foreign policy and international security, told The Moscow News. "But there's another problem. If the Kremlin really does decide to send such an expedition to Tartus, it will be a serious political gesture demonstrating that Moscow is ready to defend Assad militarily if need be."
If evacuating Russians was Moscow's top concern, a few civilian airliners would be sufficient for the job, Fyodorov said.
Reports of plans to send marines to the area in order to protect Russian citizens have been appearing throughout the week, and although Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told news agencies there was no indication of aggressive intent, the warnings clouded an already icy meeting Monday between U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Mexico on the sidelines of the G20 summit.
Both pledged an end to violence, but Putin's comments appeared noncommittal, even prompting British Prime Minister David Cameron to say that Putin no longer backs Assad, an interpretation that was denied by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Putin clarified his stance at the end of the G20 summit.
"I feel like I have to repeat our position," Reuters quoted Putin as saying. "We believe that nobody has the right to decide for other nations who should be brought to power and who should be removed from power."
Russia's tentative support for Syrian leader Bashar al Assad, who has been fighting a domestic insurgency that has killed some 10,000 people since March 2011, has fueled tensions in its relations with the United States, which has urged increased pressure on Assad to stop the bloodshed.
Over the past five years, up to 78 percent of Syria's arms imports came from Russia, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in March. But Moscow bristled this week over accusations from the U.S. State Department that it was sending attack helicopters to help Assad.
A Syria-bound cargo ship allegedly carrying weapons and helicopters from Russia was spotted near Scotland earlier this week, but had apparently turned back towards Russia, Reuters reported.
According to Fyodorov, if Moscow actually sends marines and ships to Syria, the scenario could easily escalate into a scandal, as it did when 200 Russian marines occupied Pristina Airport in Kosovo in 1999, leading to a confrontation with NATO.
"The leaks [about sending ships] are have an element of political pressure on the Americans, saying 'we're getting ready'," Fyodorov said. "The message is, if you're planning to send troops or launch an air attack, we're ready to respond."
Continuing reports of weapons shipments to Syria are more alarming than plans for a civilian operation, a weapons analyst with SIPRI said, but Russia's role in the conflict should not be overestimated.
Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher for SIPRI's Arms Transfers Program, told The Moscow News that the Syrian regime is armed enough, with or without foreign helicopters. "But it would be a very important political signal to the Syrian regime if Russia agreed to an embargo," he said.