Russian Experts Sceptical About Outcome Of 5+1 Meeting On Iran In Moscow
- JRL 2012-110
Russian experts do not expect major progress at the latest round of talks on the Iranian nuclear problem between the 5+1 group of international negotiators and Iran held in Moscow on 18-19 May, Interfax news agency reported on 18 June, quoting several political scientists.
"The most suitable outcome of the talks in Moscow would be a step forward, however small, even if it could not be understood by everyone. I believe that such a step would be made. One should not expect a fundamental and final solution in Moscow and in the nearest future," a senior scientist at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, expert on Iranian affairs Vladimir Sazhin, told Interfax.
In Sazhin's opinion, the talks will take place and continue with a moderate pace, because all key players benefit from this situation.
"No party, including Teheran, is interested in breaking down the negotiations. For example, Barack Obama would not benefit from either reaching a final solution (of the Iranian nuclear problem) or the absence of progress in finding this solution. He will be criticized either way, so he seeks slow continuation of the talks," Interfax quoted Sazhin as saying.
The expert cannot foresee substantial changes in Teheran's position until a presidential election in Iran in 2013.
"It is anticipated that a representative of the supreme leader's group, which is in opposition to the group Ahmadinezhad represents, will win the presidential election in Iran in June next year. This scenario would not completely calm down the situation, although it would reduce tension around Iran," said Sazhin.
"Iran is looking to delay the negotiations; especially, as they concern the country's nuclear programme," the scientist added. He believes that Moscow does not consider it necessary to rush the negotiations either, viewing them as "another trump card in the diplomatic game with the West".
At the same time, collapse of the negotiations would have dangerous consequences for Iran . "Iran would face difficult times. A further sharp decrease in demand for Iranian oil could carry a deadly or, at least, very heavy blow to the Iranian economy," Interfax quoted Sazhin as saying.
Commenting on the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran, Sazhin told Interfax that Israel was limited in its choice of action in a number of ways. "I doubt it will make sense for Israel to deliver strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on its own. The country would not manage this. Only if there is Washington's support. If there are strikes with Americans support, the Iranian nuclear programme will be thrown back five to seven years," Interfax quoted Sazhin as saying.
"On its own, Israel will fail to achieve any substantial result, while the effect will be the opposite. The whole of the Muslim world will be angered, including countries that do not support Iran," said Sazhin.
In a separate report on 18 June, Interfax quoted the director-general of the Centre for Studies of Modern Iran, Radzhab Safarov, who had commented on Israel's intention to deliver strikes against Iran.
"It is obvious that Israel is not capable of delivering strikes on its own. They rely on support from Washington. However, Americans are not interested in the military conflict, at least not until the presidential election. Moreover, the US could issue a serious warning to Israel that if any active actions against Iran were not coordinated with Washington, the Israelis would bear responsibility themselves," Interfax quoted Safarov as saying.
Apart from that, Israeli aircraft would have to fly over the territory of a number of countries in the region to deliver such strikes. The chances that these countries would allow Israel to do this are virtually non-existent.
"To deliver strikes against Iran, the Israeli Air Force would need air corridors of certain countries, in-flight refuelling and possibly stop-over airports of a number of countries. No country is prepared to provide such assistance for fear of retaliatory actions from Iran," Interfax further quoted Safarov as saying.
"Azerbaijan is showing signs of some activity. However, Baku understands that they are playing with fire. Even signs of some kind of assistance, for example, permission of emergency landing of Israeli aircraft, will be viewed by Iran as participation in aggression and it could then deliver strikes against Azerbaijan," Safarov said.
He also told Interfax that Western participants in the talks would seek arguments for new statements that Teheran deliberately delayed the negotiations on its nuclear programme.
"I believe that Western countries will do everything possible to ensure that the meeting in Moscow yields no result. The West is convinced that Teheran wastes time and negotiates for the sake of negotiations in order to strengthen its positions on the nuclear programme. The Western countries actively promote this view in the world's media," Interfax quoted Safarov as saying.
The West hopes not only to damage Iran's interests but also to prevent Moscow from achieving diplomatic success in resolving the conflict around Iran, the expert noted.
Safarov believes that the recent visit of the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, to Iran would influence the atmosphere of the negotiations on 18 June.
"Lavrov's visit to Iran shows that under no circumstances Russia will support sanctions against Iran. Moscow will most probably insist that the West should reduce pressure on Iran," Safarov said.
Keywords: Russia, Iran - Russian News - Russia
Russian experts do not expect major progress at the latest round of talks on the Iranian nuclear problem between the 5+1 group of international negotiators and Iran held in Moscow on 18-19 May, Interfax news agency reported on 18 June, quoting several political scientists.
"The most suitable outcome of the talks in Moscow would be a step forward, however small, even if it could not be understood by everyone. I believe that such a step would be made. One should not expect a fundamental and final solution in Moscow and in the nearest future," a senior scientist at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, expert on Iranian affairs Vladimir Sazhin, told Interfax.
In Sazhin's opinion, the talks will take place and continue with a moderate pace, because all key players benefit from this situation.
"No party, including Teheran, is interested in breaking down the negotiations. For example, Barack Obama would not benefit from either reaching a final solution (of the Iranian nuclear problem) or the absence of progress in finding this solution. He will be criticized either way, so he seeks slow continuation of the talks," Interfax quoted Sazhin as saying.
The expert cannot foresee substantial changes in Teheran's position until a presidential election in Iran in 2013.
"It is anticipated that a representative of the supreme leader's group, which is in opposition to the group Ahmadinezhad represents, will win the presidential election in Iran in June next year. This scenario would not completely calm down the situation, although it would reduce tension around Iran," said Sazhin.
"Iran is looking to delay the negotiations; especially, as they concern the country's nuclear programme," the scientist added. He believes that Moscow does not consider it necessary to rush the negotiations either, viewing them as "another trump card in the diplomatic game with the West".
At the same time, collapse of the negotiations would have dangerous consequences for Iran . "Iran would face difficult times. A further sharp decrease in demand for Iranian oil could carry a deadly or, at least, very heavy blow to the Iranian economy," Interfax quoted Sazhin as saying.
Commenting on the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran, Sazhin told Interfax that Israel was limited in its choice of action in a number of ways. "I doubt it will make sense for Israel to deliver strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on its own. The country would not manage this. Only if there is Washington's support. If there are strikes with Americans support, the Iranian nuclear programme will be thrown back five to seven years," Interfax quoted Sazhin as saying.
"On its own, Israel will fail to achieve any substantial result, while the effect will be the opposite. The whole of the Muslim world will be angered, including countries that do not support Iran," said Sazhin.
In a separate report on 18 June, Interfax quoted the director-general of the Centre for Studies of Modern Iran, Radzhab Safarov, who had commented on Israel's intention to deliver strikes against Iran.
"It is obvious that Israel is not capable of delivering strikes on its own. They rely on support from Washington. However, Americans are not interested in the military conflict, at least not until the presidential election. Moreover, the US could issue a serious warning to Israel that if any active actions against Iran were not coordinated with Washington, the Israelis would bear responsibility themselves," Interfax quoted Safarov as saying.
Apart from that, Israeli aircraft would have to fly over the territory of a number of countries in the region to deliver such strikes. The chances that these countries would allow Israel to do this are virtually non-existent.
"To deliver strikes against Iran, the Israeli Air Force would need air corridors of certain countries, in-flight refuelling and possibly stop-over airports of a number of countries. No country is prepared to provide such assistance for fear of retaliatory actions from Iran," Interfax further quoted Safarov as saying.
"Azerbaijan is showing signs of some activity. However, Baku understands that they are playing with fire. Even signs of some kind of assistance, for example, permission of emergency landing of Israeli aircraft, will be viewed by Iran as participation in aggression and it could then deliver strikes against Azerbaijan," Safarov said.
He also told Interfax that Western participants in the talks would seek arguments for new statements that Teheran deliberately delayed the negotiations on its nuclear programme.
"I believe that Western countries will do everything possible to ensure that the meeting in Moscow yields no result. The West is convinced that Teheran wastes time and negotiates for the sake of negotiations in order to strengthen its positions on the nuclear programme. The Western countries actively promote this view in the world's media," Interfax quoted Safarov as saying.
The West hopes not only to damage Iran's interests but also to prevent Moscow from achieving diplomatic success in resolving the conflict around Iran, the expert noted.
Safarov believes that the recent visit of the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, to Iran would influence the atmosphere of the negotiations on 18 June.
"Lavrov's visit to Iran shows that under no circumstances Russia will support sanctions against Iran. Moscow will most probably insist that the West should reduce pressure on Iran," Safarov said.