Russian Experts Mull Prospect Of Syrian Conflict Prompting Civil War In Lebanon
RIA Novosti - 8.24.12 - JRL 2012-154
Moscow, 24 August: Worsening of the situation in Syria may lead to the beginning of a crisis in Lebanon, experts questioned by RIA Novosti believe. However, the experts differed in opinion regarding how catastrophic a conflict in Lebanon might be and whether it is possible to rank it on a par with the "Arab spring" events.
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Lebanon may be next in line
Senior research fellow at the International Security Centre at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Sotnikov believes that Lebanon may become the next link "in the chain of Arab rebellions" after Syria.
"I believe that there is a great probability that the situation inside Syria and the circumstances in this zone as a whole will spread to Lebanon and Lebanon may be next in line," Sotnikov told RIA Novosti, adding that if a serious crisis really breaks out in Lebanon, this "will affect the whole Middle East region".
The expert noted that the situation inside Lebanon has been notable for instability in recent years: governments have changed frequently in the country and an ideal field has developed for the activities of radical Islamist groups, particularly Hezbollah.
"Over, probably, the last 30 years, Lebanon, this once prosperous country and tourist paradise, has become a ground for struggles between different groups, not only Sunnis and Shi'is. Lebanon has experienced aggression on the part of Israel...(ellipsis as received) And now the Syrian situation is affecting Lebanon to a very large extent," he noted.
In Sotnikov's opinion, it is so far difficult to predict how soon an acute crisis may start in Lebanon but it has not been ruled out that it will occur before the resolution of the Syrian conflict.
Lebanon next link in chain of instability
Expert from the Institute for Strategic Studies and Analysis Sergey Demidenko holds a similar opinion. "Lebanon is the next link in the chain of the spread of instability across the territory of the Middle East. If civil war begins in Syria, Lebanon will also flare up," he said.
He noted that "Lebanon is a state dependent on external influence and the overall regional state of affairs" and that the Syrian crisis has split this state into two hostile political camps. One of them is headed by Hezbollah is on the side of President al-Asad's regime, the other headed by the 14 March Movement supports the so-called Syrian revolution.
Demidenko warned that if "the situation in Syria collapses into the abyss of chaos when 'a war of everyone against everyone' begins, this situation will definitely spread to Lebanon with absolutely poorly predictable results". (Passage omitted)
Situation in Lebanon depends on outcome in Syria
Senioarcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences Georgiy Mirskiy also believes that the situation in Lebanon may worsen in the near future, right up to the start of civil war. However, in contrast to his colleagues, the expert is sure that a possible conflict in Lebon cannot be put on a par with the "Arab spring" events.
"In Lebanon there is a completely different situation; there will be no revolutions like the 'Arab spring' there. Lebanon is a unique country and there is no point making any comparisons so as not to put one's foot in it," Mirskiy said.
He emphasized that Lebanon is the only country in the region where, since ancient times, there is a faith-based ruling system, which allows representatives of all the main religions to participate in the authorities. (Passage omitted: background)
With such a state of affairs, there is not and has not been a dictator in Lebanon, and so an uprising against a ruler who usurped power, as was the case in Libya and Egypt, is impossible.
In Mirskiy's opinion, a new civil war may begin under the influence of Syrian events, but it is unlikely to grow from the clashes occurring at present in the Lebanese city of Tripoli. (Passage omitted: background)
According to Mirskiy, the development of events in Lebanon depends on the outcome of the conflict inside Syria.
"It is a very difficult situation; everything depends on how the civil war in Syria ends. If Bashar al-Asad's regime is overthrown, then Shi'is (in Lebanon) will feel the possibility of joint action against them by Sunnis, Maronites and Druze," Mirskiy noted.
He added that such conflict in Lebanon is especially likely if radically-inclined Sunnis "like the Muslim Brotherhood" or, worse, like "Al-Qa'idah" come to power in Damascus, who will try to establish a theocratic state in Syria.
"It is clear that they will incite Sunnis in Lebanon, adherents of their religion, to revolt," he said. However, Mirskiy is sure that even in such a state of affairs in Lebanon, there will not be "an Islamic revolution", since a theocracy is impossible there - there are too many different religions and their positions are too strong.
"Out of all Arabic countries, I think that Lebanon has the greatest chance of remaining in precisely the unique form in which it exists. But the fact that a situation close to civil war may arise there again, is quite clear," he concluded.
(Passage omitted: background)
Keywords: Russia, Middle East, North Africa - Russian News - Russia - Johnson's Russia List
Moscow, 24 August: Worsening of the situation in Syria may lead to the beginning of a crisis in Lebanon, experts questioned by RIA Novosti believe. However, the experts differed in opinion regarding how catastrophic a conflict in Lebanon might be and whether it is possible to rank it on a par with the "Arab spring" events.
file photo
Lebanon may be next in line
Senior research fellow at the International Security Centre at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Sotnikov believes that Lebanon may become the next link "in the chain of Arab rebellions" after Syria.
"I believe that there is a great probability that the situation inside Syria and the circumstances in this zone as a whole will spread to Lebanon and Lebanon may be next in line," Sotnikov told RIA Novosti, adding that if a serious crisis really breaks out in Lebanon, this "will affect the whole Middle East region".
The expert noted that the situation inside Lebanon has been notable for instability in recent years: governments have changed frequently in the country and an ideal field has developed for the activities of radical Islamist groups, particularly Hezbollah.
"Over, probably, the last 30 years, Lebanon, this once prosperous country and tourist paradise, has become a ground for struggles between different groups, not only Sunnis and Shi'is. Lebanon has experienced aggression on the part of Israel...(ellipsis as received) And now the Syrian situation is affecting Lebanon to a very large extent," he noted.
In Sotnikov's opinion, it is so far difficult to predict how soon an acute crisis may start in Lebanon but it has not been ruled out that it will occur before the resolution of the Syrian conflict.
Lebanon next link in chain of instability
Expert from the Institute for Strategic Studies and Analysis Sergey Demidenko holds a similar opinion. "Lebanon is the next link in the chain of the spread of instability across the territory of the Middle East. If civil war begins in Syria, Lebanon will also flare up," he said.
He noted that "Lebanon is a state dependent on external influence and the overall regional state of affairs" and that the Syrian crisis has split this state into two hostile political camps. One of them is headed by Hezbollah is on the side of President al-Asad's regime, the other headed by the 14 March Movement supports the so-called Syrian revolution.
Demidenko warned that if "the situation in Syria collapses into the abyss of chaos when 'a war of everyone against everyone' begins, this situation will definitely spread to Lebanon with absolutely poorly predictable results". (Passage omitted)
Situation in Lebanon depends on outcome in Syria
Senioarcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences Georgiy Mirskiy also believes that the situation in Lebanon may worsen in the near future, right up to the start of civil war. However, in contrast to his colleagues, the expert is sure that a possible conflict in Lebon cannot be put on a par with the "Arab spring" events.
"In Lebanon there is a completely different situation; there will be no revolutions like the 'Arab spring' there. Lebanon is a unique country and there is no point making any comparisons so as not to put one's foot in it," Mirskiy said.
He emphasized that Lebanon is the only country in the region where, since ancient times, there is a faith-based ruling system, which allows representatives of all the main religions to participate in the authorities. (Passage omitted: background)
With such a state of affairs, there is not and has not been a dictator in Lebanon, and so an uprising against a ruler who usurped power, as was the case in Libya and Egypt, is impossible.
In Mirskiy's opinion, a new civil war may begin under the influence of Syrian events, but it is unlikely to grow from the clashes occurring at present in the Lebanese city of Tripoli. (Passage omitted: background)
According to Mirskiy, the development of events in Lebanon depends on the outcome of the conflict inside Syria.
"It is a very difficult situation; everything depends on how the civil war in Syria ends. If Bashar al-Asad's regime is overthrown, then Shi'is (in Lebanon) will feel the possibility of joint action against them by Sunnis, Maronites and Druze," Mirskiy noted.
He added that such conflict in Lebanon is especially likely if radically-inclined Sunnis "like the Muslim Brotherhood" or, worse, like "Al-Qa'idah" come to power in Damascus, who will try to establish a theocratic state in Syria.
"It is clear that they will incite Sunnis in Lebanon, adherents of their religion, to revolt," he said. However, Mirskiy is sure that even in such a state of affairs in Lebanon, there will not be "an Islamic revolution", since a theocracy is impossible there - there are too many different religions and their positions are too strong.
"Out of all Arabic countries, I think that Lebanon has the greatest chance of remaining in precisely the unique form in which it exists. But the fact that a situation close to civil war may arise there again, is quite clear," he concluded.
(Passage omitted: background)