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Vladimir Putin reclaiming Russia's presidency will probably exacerbate tensions with the U.S. and Europe as they try to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions and halt bloodshed in Syria, strategists from Moscow to New York said.

As Putin celebrated six more years in office after his electoral victory on March 4, he thanked supporters for backing a "Great Russia." The U.S. State Department responded by choosing not to congratulate him and calling for a "credible" investigation into allegations of electoral fraud.

"Putin understands geopolitics in terms of a zero-sum competition with Western, particularly U.S., interests," Jenia Ustinova and Alexander Kliment of Eurasia Group in New York said by e-mail. "After four years of a relatively more accommodating stance under President Medvedev, the tone of Moscow's foreign policy toward the West is set to change."

The Russian leader's return to the Kremlin gives him the opportunity to stymie U.S. and European policy in the oil-rich Middle East at a time when the region is being buffeted by civil war in Syria and the threat of an Israeli military strike against Iran.

Russia reiterated yesterday that it won't support any international interference aimed at toppling Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad amid a government crackdown that has killed more than 7,500 people according to the United Nations. Putin said Feb. 24 that the West is seeking to bring about a regime change in Iran under the guise of halting its nuclear-arms ambitions.

Can't 'Push'

In the weeks leading up to his re-election with 64 percent of the vote, Putin rekindled the anti-American rhetoric that characterized his first eight years in the Kremlin from 2000-2008, accusing the U.S. of seeking "vassals" rather than allies and criticizing plans to place elements of a missile- defense shield in eastern Europe.

"Security in the world can only be achieved with Russia and not by trying to push her around and weaken her geopolitical position," Putin said in a Feb. 27 pre-election manifesto on foreign policy. Russia will spend 23 trillion rubles ($774 billion) over the next decade to upgrade its military with the latest weaponry, he said in a Feb. 20 article in the government's Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper.

Outgoing President Dmitry Medvedev sought to improve ties with the U.S. after taking over from Putin in 2008. The two countries signed an agreement on a new nuclear arms reduction pact and negotiated Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization after an 18-year wait.

Iran Stance

While Russia is against military action or increased sanctions in Iran, it backed European Union foreign-policy chief Catherine Ashton's call yesterday for the Persian Gulf state to reach a "full settlement" clarifying questions about its nuclear program. Russia is one of the six countries including the U.S., France, China, the U.K. and Germany that are negotiating with Iran.

Medvedev also allowed a United Nations resolution authorizing NATO military action to protect civilians that led to the overthrow of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi last year.

The Libyan vote nevertheless sparked a spat between Medvedev and Putin and, as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's campaign went on, prompted accusations in Russia that the military alliance was abusing the UN mandate for regime change. The drive to depose Qaddafi after Medvedev's gesture confirmed to Putin his "very mistrustful" approach toward the U.S., according to Fyodor Lukyanov, an analyst at the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy in Moscow.

'Little Reason'

Putin in a March 1 meeting with foreign journalists described Qaddafi, who ruled his country for four decades, as "absolutely deranged and obsolete," while denouncing the violence and chaos that followed his ouster. Tribal leaders in eastern Libya, where most of the country's oil is concentrated, said yesterday they want to rule themselves apart from defense and foreign affairs.

There's "little reason" to expect Moscow to soften its stance on Iran or Syria post-election, according to Eurasia Group.

Since the Libyan vote, Russia has vetoed a UN resolution proposed by Western and Arab nations to usher out Assad, while Putin has warned that a military strike on Iran would be "truly catastrophic" and said foreign powers back protests against his rule.

Russia opposes a new UN resolution on Syria proposed by the U.S. because it's a "slightly modified version" of the draft it vetoed last month, Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said yesterday.

Losing Arms Sales

Russia is losing arms sales to the Middle East as a result of the toppling of autocratic regimes in the region sparked by the 'Arab Spring.' It surrendered $4 billion in weapons contracts with Libya after Qaddafi's overthrow, Sergey Chemezov, head of state-run Russian Technologies Corp. (ROSTH) said this month.

The country expects to surpass this year the record $12 billion in arms exports in 2011, Chemezov told the Interfax news service on Jan. 25. Total exports of goods exceeded $500 billion last year, central bank data show. Russia has about $3.5 billion of arms deals with Syria, according to the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow.

Russia's disagreement with the U.S. and European powers over Libya and Syria also reflects its frustration with "Western interventionist policies" that are reminiscent of so- called "color revolutions" backed by the West in Georgia and Ukraine in 2003 and 2004, Lilit Gevorgyan, Russia analyst at IHS Global Insight in London, said by e-mail.

Anti-U.S. Rhetoric

"The level of anti-U.S. rhetoric is linked to the elections but not entirely driven by it," Gevorgyan said. "Putin's anti-U.S. stance is also shaped by Washington's policy.

The U.S. has refused a Russian demand for legally binding guarantees that its planned missile defense-shield won't be aimed against Russia. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said yesterday that Russia may pull out of a NATO-Russia summit in Chicago unless the missile shield was on the agenda.

The Russian leader said today that he hadn't spoken to U.S. President Barack Obama since his election win and hadn't decided whether to attend the Chicago summit. Foreign policy won't change in his new term, he said.

Putin in 2004 supported a pro-Russian candidate in Ukraine against the Western-backed opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko, who came to power after mass protests over election fraud. In August 2008, a few months after Medvedev took over as president, Russia fought a war with Georgia, a U.S. ally that was seeking to enter NATO.

'Pragmatic' Policy

At the same time, Russian foreign policy is ''pragmatic," according to Gevorgyan. Even under Medvedev's presidency, Putin kept the upper hand on foreign policy and the "reset" in ties with the U.S. "couldn't have happened without his approval," she said.

While the U.S. declined to celebrate his win, leaders in the European Union, which relies on Russia for a quarter of its gas consumption, were more magnanimous. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy all congratulated Putin as Merkel said she wants Germany and Russia to continue a "close" relationship.

Cameron's spokesman, Steve Field, said the Russian leader had won a "decisive" victory, even as observers from the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe said that Putin's win was unfair. The U.K. wants to continue "constructive" ties with Russia, he said.

The U.S. and European Union will need Russia's cooperation and have to accept Putin's rule, Tony Brenton, the U.K. ambassador to Russia from 2004 to 2008, said by phone. The EU relies on Russian state gas exporter OAO Gazprom (GAZP) for about a quarter of its natural gas, while Russia needs Western investment and technology transfer to modernize its economy.

"Like it or not, we have to do business with the Russian government, whoever is in power and however they got there," he said.

Article ©2012 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED; article also appeared at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-07/putin-design-for-russia-may-intensify-tensions-with-west.html

 

Keywords: Russia, Government, Politics - Russia News - Russia

 

Vladimir Putin reclaiming Russia's presidency will probably exacerbate tensions with the U.S. and Europe as they try to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions and halt bloodshed in Syria, strategists from Moscow to New York said.

As Putin celebrated six more years in office after his electoral victory on March 4, he thanked supporters for backing a "Great Russia." The U.S. State Department responded by choosing not to congratulate him and calling for a "credible" investigation into allegations of electoral fraud.

"Putin understands geopolitics in terms of a zero-sum competition with Western, particularly U.S., interests," Jenia Ustinova and Alexander Kliment of Eurasia Group in New York said by e-mail. "After four years of a relatively more accommodating stance under President Medvedev, the tone of Moscow's foreign policy toward the West is set to change."

The Russian leader's return to the Kremlin gives him the opportunity to stymie U.S. and European policy in the oil-rich Middle East at a time when the region is being buffeted by civil war in Syria and the threat of an Israeli military strike against Iran.

Russia reiterated yesterday that it won't support any international interference aimed at toppling Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad amid a government crackdown that has killed more than 7,500 people according to the United Nations. Putin said Feb. 24 that the West is seeking to bring about a regime change in Iran under the guise of halting its nuclear-arms ambitions.

Can't 'Push'

In the weeks leading up to his re-election with 64 percent of the vote, Putin rekindled the anti-American rhetoric that characterized his first eight years in the Kremlin from 2000-2008, accusing the U.S. of seeking "vassals" rather than allies and criticizing plans to place elements of a missile- defense shield in eastern Europe.

"Security in the world can only be achieved with Russia and not by trying to push her around and weaken her geopolitical position," Putin said in a Feb. 27 pre-election manifesto on foreign policy. Russia will spend 23 trillion rubles ($774 billion) over the next decade to upgrade its military with the latest weaponry, he said in a Feb. 20 article in the government's Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper.

Outgoing President Dmitry Medvedev sought to improve ties with the U.S. after taking over from Putin in 2008. The two countries signed an agreement on a new nuclear arms reduction pact and negotiated Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization after an 18-year wait.

Iran Stance

While Russia is against military action or increased sanctions in Iran, it backed European Union foreign-policy chief Catherine Ashton's call yesterday for the Persian Gulf state to reach a "full settlement" clarifying questions about its nuclear program. Russia is one of the six countries including the U.S., France, China, the U.K. and Germany that are negotiating with Iran.

Medvedev also allowed a United Nations resolution authorizing NATO military action to protect civilians that led to the overthrow of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi last year.

The Libyan vote nevertheless sparked a spat between Medvedev and Putin and, as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's campaign went on, prompted accusations in Russia that the military alliance was abusing the UN mandate for regime change. The drive to depose Qaddafi after Medvedev's gesture confirmed to Putin his "very mistrustful" approach toward the U.S., according to Fyodor Lukyanov, an analyst at the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy in Moscow.

'Little Reason'

Putin in a March 1 meeting with foreign journalists described Qaddafi, who ruled his country for four decades, as "absolutely deranged and obsolete," while denouncing the violence and chaos that followed his ouster. Tribal leaders in eastern Libya, where most of the country's oil is concentrated, said yesterday they want to rule themselves apart from defense and foreign affairs.

There's "little reason" to expect Moscow to soften its stance on Iran or Syria post-election, according to Eurasia Group.

Since the Libyan vote, Russia has vetoed a UN resolution proposed by Western and Arab nations to usher out Assad, while Putin has warned that a military strike on Iran would be "truly catastrophic" and said foreign powers back protests against his rule.

Russia opposes a new UN resolution on Syria proposed by the U.S. because it's a "slightly modified version" of the draft it vetoed last month, Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said yesterday.

Losing Arms Sales

Russia is losing arms sales to the Middle East as a result of the toppling of autocratic regimes in the region sparked by the 'Arab Spring.' It surrendered $4 billion in weapons contracts with Libya after Qaddafi's overthrow, Sergey Chemezov, head of state-run Russian Technologies Corp. (ROSTH) said this month.

The country expects to surpass this year the record $12 billion in arms exports in 2011, Chemezov told the Interfax news service on Jan. 25. Total exports of goods exceeded $500 billion last year, central bank data show. Russia has about $3.5 billion of arms deals with Syria, according to the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow.

Russia's disagreement with the U.S. and European powers over Libya and Syria also reflects its frustration with "Western interventionist policies" that are reminiscent of so- called "color revolutions" backed by the West in Georgia and Ukraine in 2003 and 2004, Lilit Gevorgyan, Russia analyst at IHS Global Insight in London, said by e-mail.

Anti-U.S. Rhetoric

"The level of anti-U.S. rhetoric is linked to the elections but not entirely driven by it," Gevorgyan said. "Putin's anti-U.S. stance is also shaped by Washington's policy.

The U.S. has refused a Russian demand for legally binding guarantees that its planned missile defense-shield won't be aimed against Russia. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said yesterday that Russia may pull out of a NATO-Russia summit in Chicago unless the missile shield was on the agenda.

The Russian leader said today that he hadn't spoken to U.S. President Barack Obama since his election win and hadn't decided whether to attend the Chicago summit. Foreign policy won't change in his new term, he said.

Putin in 2004 supported a pro-Russian candidate in Ukraine against the Western-backed opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko, who came to power after mass protests over election fraud. In August 2008, a few months after Medvedev took over as president, Russia fought a war with Georgia, a U.S. ally that was seeking to enter NATO.

'Pragmatic' Policy

At the same time, Russian foreign policy is ''pragmatic," according to Gevorgyan. Even under Medvedev's presidency, Putin kept the upper hand on foreign policy and the "reset" in ties with the U.S. "couldn't have happened without his approval," she said.

While the U.S. declined to celebrate his win, leaders in the European Union, which relies on Russia for a quarter of its gas consumption, were more magnanimous. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy all congratulated Putin as Merkel said she wants Germany and Russia to continue a "close" relationship.

Cameron's spokesman, Steve Field, said the Russian leader had won a "decisive" victory, even as observers from the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe said that Putin's win was unfair. The U.K. wants to continue "constructive" ties with Russia, he said.

The U.S. and European Union will need Russia's cooperation and have to accept Putin's rule, Tony Brenton, the U.K. ambassador to Russia from 2004 to 2008, said by phone. The EU relies on Russian state gas exporter OAO Gazprom (GAZP) for about a quarter of its natural gas, while Russia needs Western investment and technology transfer to modernize its economy.

"Like it or not, we have to do business with the Russian government, whoever is in power and however they got there," he said.

Article ©2012 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED; article also appeared at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-07/putin-design-for-russia-may-intensify-tensions-with-west.html