As Russia edges ever closer to the March 4 presidential elections, now only two weeks away, both opposition and pro-Kremlin forces are preparing to stage post-election protests to ostensibly outdo one another. It is a trend that has only recently kicked off, and has seen rival protests taking place on the same day and competing, back-to-back auto rallies roaring through the city center. But as the time draws nearer for developing a longer-term protest strategy, what's on the drawing board for both sides ­ and how will the Kremlin handle their dueling actions?

The latest shake-up came early on February 20, after Moscow City Hall granted pro-Kremlin demonstrators a permit to demonstrate on Lubyanka Square, in front of the Federal Security Service (FSB) headquarters, for March 4 and 5 ­ the same time and place where the opposition's organization committee had planned to stage its own rally. Both factions reportedly camped out the previous night in front of the building in a bid to submit their applications first; yet when the city picked the pro-Kremlin group, opposition members claimed the city allowed their rivals to sneak in first to submit their application. The event resulted in a minor scuffle in which several opposition activists were arrested.

But this is only the most recent event to encapsulate the duel of the demonstrations between pro- and anti-Kremlin activists. The past weeks have seen a growing trend, especially, of rival pro-Putin protests that have taken place alongside opposition protests. First came the major rally at Poklonnaya Hill near central Moscow on February 4, just across town from the larger opposition rally at Bolotnaya Square, which reportedly gathered up to 30,000 people. More recently, a slew of pro-government protests rippled through both European Russia and Siberia.

It's clear that supporters of both camps have stepped up their public actions in an apparent effort to make their own case heard. This past weekend featured auto rallies around Moscow's Garden Ring: while the pro-Putin "aVVtoparty" took place on Saturday evening, the anti-Kremlin "white ring" rally, in which participants tied white ribbons, balloons and other accessories to their cars as a symbol of the protest movement, carried the mantle on Sunday afternoon. This week will also prove busy, as a pro-Kremlin demonstration promises to muster upward of 40,000 participants on Thursday, while the next major opposition rally, which plans to construct a human chain around the Garden Sing, is set for next Sunday.

Yet as the presidential elections approach, both pro- and anti-Kremlin factions will need to develop more coherent, long-term strategies to sustain their respective movements. For now, however, both seem to be stuck in a vicious cycle of tit-for-tat protesting, out of which there is no conceivable exit. Oppositionist Sergei Udaltsov, the leader of the Left Front movement, has flirted with the idea of calling for labor strikes and the establishment of a tent city ­ reminiscent of Ukraine's Orange Revolution of 2004 ­ but few seem to share his enthusiasm for pushing ahead with a more aggressive strategy. What's more, the opposition has long been notoriously fractious ­ and its organizing committee meetings reportedly heated and fraught with disagreement.

On the pro-government side, meanwhile, there are only a handful of groups ­ among them Nashi, Young Guard, and Young Russia ­ which might be capable of drawing large crowds to the streets. Yet previous demonstrations in support of Putin and the current regime have reportedly been amassed through financial compensation for participants and other awards. Viral videos from recent pro-Putin rallies have spiraled throughout the Internet, featuring demonstrators unable to answer why they support the government, or even what some of their slogans and placards meant.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, seems busy strategizing. The pro-government demonstrations are clearly its main response to the opposition protests; and while Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will reportedly speak at Thursday's mass rally, he has been careful to distance himself from previous rallies. Yet experts also said this is part of a clever tactic. According to Alexei Mukhin, political analyst at the Center for Political Information, the authorities have created an illusion of a more robust civil society: now, the popular opposition rallies are no longer pitted against the police and the authorities per se, but against their fellow citizens. "If there are two conflicting demonstrations ­ between the opposition and pro-government camps ­ then this is a conflict between two parts of society that are voicing their positions," he said. "It is a societal conflict, and the government steps out as the arbiter and fulfills its main role. And this was a relatively smart move for the Kremlin, because the pre-revolutionary situation has been turned into a real, open dialogue within society."

Others, however, said that the Kremlin is short on strategy and longer on reminding the opposition movement that it is still a force to be reckoned with: "The purpose of the rally is not just to counter the effect of the anti-Putin rallies ­ it is also part of [Putin's] 'I'm still popular' campaign," said Carnegie Moscow Center expert Masha Lipman. "This strategy is aimed at both the public and the elites ­ lest they are too focused on the idea that Putin is now weaker than he used to be." Moreover, she added, the Kremlin's only true aim at this point is to secure Putin's victory after the first round of elections; the rest, she said, is improvisation. "Once he has the election past him, there will probably be another goal, and problems will be solved as they emerge ­ this has been the tactic of Putin's government all along."

Keywords: Russia, Government, Politics - Russia News - Russia

As Russia edges ever closer to the March 4 presidential elections, now only two weeks away, both opposition and pro-Kremlin forces are preparing to stage post-election protests to ostensibly outdo one another. It is a trend that has only recently kicked off, and has seen rival protests taking place on the same day and competing, back-to-back auto rallies roaring through the city center. But as the time draws nearer for developing a longer-term protest strategy, what's on the drawing board for both sides ­ and how will the Kremlin handle their dueling actions?

The latest shake-up came early on February 20, after Moscow City Hall granted pro-Kremlin demonstrators a permit to demonstrate on Lubyanka Square, in front of the Federal Security Service (FSB) headquarters, for March 4 and 5 ­ the same time and place where the opposition's organization committee had planned to stage its own rally. Both factions reportedly camped out the previous night in front of the building in a bid to submit their applications first; yet when the city picked the pro-Kremlin group, opposition members claimed the city allowed their rivals to sneak in first to submit their application. The event resulted in a minor scuffle in which several opposition activists were arrested.

But this is only the most recent event to encapsulate the duel of the demonstrations between pro- and anti-Kremlin activists. The past weeks have seen a growing trend, especially, of rival pro-Putin protests that have taken place alongside opposition protests. First came the major rally at Poklonnaya Hill near central Moscow on February 4, just across town from the larger opposition rally at Bolotnaya Square, which reportedly gathered up to 30,000 people. More recently, a slew of pro-government protests rippled through both European Russia and Siberia.

It's clear that supporters of both camps have stepped up their public actions in an apparent effort to make their own case heard. This past weekend featured auto rallies around Moscow's Garden Ring: while the pro-Putin "aVVtoparty" took place on Saturday evening, the anti-Kremlin "white ring" rally, in which participants tied white ribbons, balloons and other accessories to their cars as a symbol of the protest movement, carried the mantle on Sunday afternoon. This week will also prove busy, as a pro-Kremlin demonstration promises to muster upward of 40,000 participants on Thursday, while the next major opposition rally, which plans to construct a human chain around the Garden Sing, is set for next Sunday.

Yet as the presidential elections approach, both pro- and anti-Kremlin factions will need to develop more coherent, long-term strategies to sustain their respective movements. For now, however, both seem to be stuck in a vicious cycle of tit-for-tat protesting, out of which there is no conceivable exit. Oppositionist Sergei Udaltsov, the leader of the Left Front movement, has flirted with the idea of calling for labor strikes and the establishment of a tent city ­ reminiscent of Ukraine's Orange Revolution of 2004 ­ but few seem to share his enthusiasm for pushing ahead with a more aggressive strategy. What's more, the opposition has long been notoriously fractious ­ and its organizing committee meetings reportedly heated and fraught with disagreement.

On the pro-government side, meanwhile, there are only a handful of groups ­ among them Nashi, Young Guard, and Young Russia ­ which might be capable of drawing large crowds to the streets. Yet previous demonstrations in support of Putin and the current regime have reportedly been amassed through financial compensation for participants and other awards. Viral videos from recent pro-Putin rallies have spiraled throughout the Internet, featuring demonstrators unable to answer why they support the government, or even what some of their slogans and placards meant.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, seems busy strategizing. The pro-government demonstrations are clearly its main response to the opposition protests; and while Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will reportedly speak at Thursday's mass rally, he has been careful to distance himself from previous rallies. Yet experts also said this is part of a clever tactic. According to Alexei Mukhin, political analyst at the Center for Political Information, the authorities have created an illusion of a more robust civil society: now, the popular opposition rallies are no longer pitted against the police and the authorities per se, but against their fellow citizens. "If there are two conflicting demonstrations ­ between the opposition and pro-government camps ­ then this is a conflict between two parts of society that are voicing their positions," he said. "It is a societal conflict, and the government steps out as the arbiter and fulfills its main role. And this was a relatively smart move for the Kremlin, because the pre-revolutionary situation has been turned into a real, open dialogue within society."

Others, however, said that the Kremlin is short on strategy and longer on reminding the opposition movement that it is still a force to be reckoned with: "The purpose of the rally is not just to counter the effect of the anti-Putin rallies ­ it is also part of [Putin's] 'I'm still popular' campaign," said Carnegie Moscow Center expert Masha Lipman. "This strategy is aimed at both the public and the elites ­ lest they are too focused on the idea that Putin is now weaker than he used to be." Moreover, she added, the Kremlin's only true aim at this point is to secure Putin's victory after the first round of elections; the rest, she said, is improvisation. "Once he has the election past him, there will probably be another goal, and problems will be solved as they emerge ­ this has been the tactic of Putin's government all along."