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Following the lower turnout at the latest opposition rally in Moscow on Saturday, the talk among Russia's protest leaders has already turned to the next step: how to harness the momentum built up in the past three months into a sustainable political force.

This means forming political parties, a task in which Russia's fractured opposition has a poor track record, partly because of internal disagreements, but also due to restrictive legislation.

The second factor, at least, looks set to change in the near future under a reform bill that will reduce the membership quota required to form a political party to 500, from the current 50,000, and scrap a law that says parties and candidates must have a minimum number of signatures to register for elections.

Several new parties have already announced plans to emerge, or re-emerge. Billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, who won 7 percent in recent presidential elections, is forming a right-wing liberal party and several parties which were denied registration ahead of December's parliamentary elections, said they will apply for re-registration.

But analysts question how far the liberalized procedures will help the opposition become a real political force. "The liberalization of party registration will simply lead to the appearance of dozens, if not hundreds of parties in the next year or two," said Vyacheslav Nikonov, head of the Politika Foundation.

"This will particularly apply to the liberal parties ­ they will simply cancel each other out."

Much, he said, may depend on the creation of a strong party with a strong leader, which could act as a real competitor to the ruling elite.

Suspicious of Prokhorov

Currently the only real candidate for this role seems to be Prokhorov, who has become a popular figure among the country's nascent middle class, particularly in Moscow, where he came second in the presidential vote. However, opposition activists are concerned by the metals tycoon's links with the Kremlin.

Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who has attempted to act as a mediator between the protest movement and the government, said on his Twitter page Monday that he plans to meet with Prokhorov soon to discuss their joint prospects. It has been rumored that both men may be offered places in the new Cabinet when it's formed after Putin's inauguration in May. Both say they would turn down such offers, however.

Another obvious opposition figurehead could be Alexei Navalny, the charismatic anti-corruption lawyer whose popular blog posts helped to mobilize the protest movement.

However, he has voiced no intention to form a political party and many in the opposition are uncomfortable about his nationalist rhetoric.

All blocked up

Many of the ringleaders of the protest movement say there is little hope of forming a true political force unless the opposition parties are allowed to form blocs.

"If they ban parties from forming blocs, it will show that [President-elect] Vladimir Putin wants to spread political power without creating real political competition," said Boris Nemtsov, a former deputy prime minister and protest leader. "There will be no real political reform ­ just the same old make-believe system and people will continue to protest in full force."

Nemtsov's liberal People's Freedom Party is taking the Central Elections Commission to court over its decision to ban it from running in December's parliamentary elections.

The opposition can currently be divided into three broad political groupings ­ Communists, nationalists and liberals ­ all of which are themselves severely fractured.

Divided left

Members of the biggest group, the Communists, gave a rare show of pragmatism ahead of the elections when the aging Communist Party joined forces with the radical Left Front in a bid to detract more votes from Putin.

However, analysts say the union is unlikely to be sustained going forward.

"It was pure opportunism on [Left Front leader Sergei] Udaltsov's part," said Nikonov, of the Politika Foundation. "Udaltsov is a revolutionary ­ the Communist Party would never support him as a leader and he wouldn't agree to hold a different position in the party."

Mikhail Vinogradov, an analyst at the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation, said that much now depended on whether the Kremlin can be pressured into holding early presidential elections ­ one of the main demands of the protest movement.

"If the government does not agree to hold early elections, then there is very little point in forming parties to run in six years' time," Vinogradov told The Moscow News. "Whether or not the government decides to hold early elections will depend on how the protest movement evolves."

Keywords: Russia, Government, Politics - Russia

 

Following the lower turnout at the latest opposition rally in Moscow on Saturday, the talk among Russia's protest leaders has already turned to the next step: how to harness the momentum built up in the past three months into a sustainable political force.

This means forming political parties, a task in which Russia's fractured opposition has a poor track record, partly because of internal disagreements, but also due to restrictive legislation.

The second factor, at least, looks set to change in the near future under a reform bill that will reduce the membership quota required to form a political party to 500, from the current 50,000, and scrap a law that says parties and candidates must have a minimum number of signatures to register for elections.

Several new parties have already announced plans to emerge, or re-emerge. Billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, who won 7 percent in recent presidential elections, is forming a right-wing liberal party and several parties which were denied registration ahead of December's parliamentary elections, said they will apply for re-registration.

But analysts question how far the liberalized procedures will help the opposition become a real political force. "The liberalization of party registration will simply lead to the appearance of dozens, if not hundreds of parties in the next year or two," said Vyacheslav Nikonov, head of the Politika Foundation.

"This will particularly apply to the liberal parties ­ they will simply cancel each other out."

Much, he said, may depend on the creation of a strong party with a strong leader, which could act as a real competitor to the ruling elite.

Suspicious of Prokhorov

Currently the only real candidate for this role seems to be Prokhorov, who has become a popular figure among the country's nascent middle class, particularly in Moscow, where he came second in the presidential vote. However, opposition activists are concerned by the metals tycoon's links with the Kremlin.

Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who has attempted to act as a mediator between the protest movement and the government, said on his Twitter page Monday that he plans to meet with Prokhorov soon to discuss their joint prospects. It has been rumored that both men may be offered places in the new Cabinet when it's formed after Putin's inauguration in May. Both say they would turn down such offers, however.

Another obvious opposition figurehead could be Alexei Navalny, the charismatic anti-corruption lawyer whose popular blog posts helped to mobilize the protest movement.

However, he has voiced no intention to form a political party and many in the opposition are uncomfortable about his nationalist rhetoric.

All blocked up

Many of the ringleaders of the protest movement say there is little hope of forming a true political force unless the opposition parties are allowed to form blocs.

"If they ban parties from forming blocs, it will show that [President-elect] Vladimir Putin wants to spread political power without creating real political competition," said Boris Nemtsov, a former deputy prime minister and protest leader. "There will be no real political reform ­ just the same old make-believe system and people will continue to protest in full force."

Nemtsov's liberal People's Freedom Party is taking the Central Elections Commission to court over its decision to ban it from running in December's parliamentary elections.

The opposition can currently be divided into three broad political groupings ­ Communists, nationalists and liberals ­ all of which are themselves severely fractured.

Divided left

Members of the biggest group, the Communists, gave a rare show of pragmatism ahead of the elections when the aging Communist Party joined forces with the radical Left Front in a bid to detract more votes from Putin.

However, analysts say the union is unlikely to be sustained going forward.

"It was pure opportunism on [Left Front leader Sergei] Udaltsov's part," said Nikonov, of the Politika Foundation. "Udaltsov is a revolutionary ­ the Communist Party would never support him as a leader and he wouldn't agree to hold a different position in the party."

Mikhail Vinogradov, an analyst at the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation, said that much now depended on whether the Kremlin can be pressured into holding early presidential elections ­ one of the main demands of the protest movement.

"If the government does not agree to hold early elections, then there is very little point in forming parties to run in six years' time," Vinogradov told The Moscow News. "Whether or not the government decides to hold early elections will depend on how the protest movement evolves."