The Moscow News asks experts to put their crystal balls on the line, and tell us what they foresee for the year ahead.
Politics
1. Will Vladimir Putin win the presidential election, and if so in the first or the second round?
He'll definitely win, and in the first round. But much will hang on the protest activity and general destabilization ahead of the March 4 elections. Certain forces in the Kremlin believe that the second round should be allowed, but this view is opposed by Putin. He fears he may lose in a second round, which may be the case given that 65 percent voted against United Russia. But I don't think they'll allow a second round. (Stanislav Belkovsky, director of the Institute of National Strategy)
He'll win in the first round only if the vote is rigged, but this will undermine his legitimacy. He has a high chance to win in the second round, because there's no other alternative so far. (Dmitry Oreshkin, president of the Mercator think tank)
Putin will falsify the elections in the first round, but then he will leave. I give him from two days to two years. (Vladimir Pribylovsky, head of the Panorama think tank)
Putin will win in the second round. (Alexander Rahr, German Council on Foreign Relations)
2. Who will Russia's prime minister be at the end of 2012?
Medvedev I think Putin will keep his promise. (Belkovsky) I think Alexei Kudrin will be PM by the end of 2012. (Rahr)
3. Who will emerge as Russia's most popular opposition leader?
Navalny, definitely, he's in the foreground. (Belkovsky)
The opposition will be restructured now there's no opposition as such. New, younger leaders are likely to emerge, and maybe Navalny will take the lead. (Oreshkin)
He has already emerged Alexei Navalny. (Pribylovsky)
Zyuganov will get through to the second round against Putin, but the strongest opposition leader will come from the nationalist camp. (Rahr)
4. Will Russia's opposition protests grow or fade away in 2012?
They'll grow, especially spurred on by the fraud expected in the presidential election. (Belkovsky)
The protest movement will acquire a new character. Instead of street rallies, protests will become systemic, remaining within the legal framework. A strike, for instance, is an effective, legal form of protest. (Oreshkin)
5. Will the next Russian president be more liberal, or more authoritarian?
Russia is sick of authoritarianism, which is why its next president after Putin will be either a national democrat like Navalny or a social democrat like Oksana Dmitriyeva. (Belkovsky)
They'll try to tighten the screws, using liberal rhetoric at the same time. The ruling class is trying to bring new leaders to the fore such as Kudrin and Prokhorov. They're looking for a figure who could allow them to bow out without compromising their essential interests and meet protesters' demands. (Oreshkin)
Economics
6. Will the next government implement an austerity program in 2012? If so, what spending will they cut or taxes/tariffs will they hike?
The new government will not change its fiscal policy, and is unlikely to decrease social spending. (Natalya Orlova, chief economist, Alfa Bank)
We'll see a reduction in social spending by the middle of the next year. (Yekaterina Andreyanova, strategist, Rye, Man and Gor Securities)
7. What will be the ruble/dollar exchange rate at the end of 2012?
33 (Orlova), 29 (Osin).
8. What level will the RTS reach by the end of next year?
2,000 (Osin).
9. What will the oil price be at the end of 2012?
$125 (Osin), $100 (Orlova and Andreyanova).
10. Which Russian company will be the biggest success story of 2012?
Gazprom, as the company has increased its exports to Europe by 15 percent and achieved more control over distribution networks. (Osin)
11. Will Russians' average real incomes rise or fall?
Real incomes will rise slightly, by 1.5 percent at most. (Orlova)
12. Will Russia escape a new wave of the crisis?
We're already in crisis, together with Europe. (Orlova)
13. Will WTO membership be a positive for Russia?
Russia has already made so many concessions to join the WTO. I don't see how it can get any worse, only improve. (Osin)
Moscow
14. What will be Mayor Sergei Sobyanin's biggest success and failures in 2012?
His biggest success will be if he stays in office. There will be some significant changes in the highest ranks of power, so if he manages to stay despite these changes it will be a big success for him. (Pribylovsky)
15. Will Moscow real estate prices rise or fall?
I think prices for real estate in Moscow will rise in the next few years. (Pribylovsky)
16. Will the city's transport and traffic improve or get worse?
It seems traffic is as bad as possible, but I think it will get worse. (Pribylovsky)
International relations
17. Will Russia's relations with the United States improve or get worse?
Relations with US will be cold like today, but no Cold War. (Rahr)
18. Will there be a popular revolution in the former Soviet Union, and if so in which country or countries would that most likely take place?
Ukraine could face a new orange revolution in 2012.
Arts & Entertainment
19. What will be the most commercially successful Russian film of 2012?
'Mamy' ('Moms'), [to be released on March 1, ahead of International Women's Day]. It has a very good promotion campaign. (Igor Aizenberg, head of advertising at KinoPoisk. ru)
20. What will Moscow's cultural highlights be next year?
Polish director Krystian Lupa's "Simone's Body" is coming to Moscow it will be staged as part of the annual Golden Mask festival. Lupa's work was staged at the Golden Mask in the spring of 2011, and made a huge impression on Muscovites so it stands to reason that they will turn out for more of his excellent theater. (Critic Christina Matvienko)
St. Petersburg's [controversial] Mikhailovsky Theater is going to be staging ballet performances as part of the Golden Mask festival this spring. The Mikhailovsky has somehow managed to outshine the legendary Mariinsky Theater recently it will be really interesting to watch how they do in Moscow. (Critic Elena Kovalskaya)
21. Will the new, revamped Bolshoi Theater live up to expectations?
The Bolshoi attracts a lot of international talent nowadays and Sergei Filin, the Bolshoi Ballet's artistic director, is young and wonderful. That's why 2012 ought to be a success for the Bolshoi. The revamping is probably irrelevant aside from the huge costs associated with it. (Matvienko)
There is no reason why the Bolshoi shouldn't have an excellent year. Now that the Bolshoi has been revamped, there is more room to experiment there. A new stage allows them the chance to diversify and do more controversial stuff without losing their core audience. (Kovalskaya)
Sports
22. How far will Russia progress in the Euro-2012 finals in Ukraine and Poland?
Russia will definitely progress from the group to the playoffs. At the draw, our squad got as lucky as never before. I hope there will be no surprises in the group stage, but I wouldn't predict what will happen next. (Andrei Bogdanov, football writer at Sovietsky Sport)
23. Who will win the Russian football premier league?
Zenit CSKA hasn't been putting in a stable performance, and there are no other contenders. (Bogdanov)
24. How many medals will Russia win in the 2012 London Olympics?
Russia should win about 80 medals. (Yury Dud, editor-in-chief, Sports.ru)
---------
A year of surprises, tragedies and a change in political fortunes
Natasha Doff
In years to come, 2011 might come to be written about in history books as the year when Russia changed its course politically.
Discontent with the stagnant ruling elite grew throughout the year, fuelled by increasing use of the Internet and anger at a string of tragic transport catastrophes. The tension fi nally came to a head in December when anger over alleged election fraud sparked the biggest protests the country has seen in decades.
Last year, like this year, we asked a panel of experts to make predictions for the forthcoming year and at 60 percent correct, their score was around 10 percent lower than the experts surveyed the year before.
Political surprises
While none of our political experts predicted the current state of affairs in the country, their forecasts did come close. In particular, they predicted that no new political party would emerge to challenge United Russia and that youth activism would rise.
"Youth activism is very high, and it will become even more active. Young people have understood that this is their time they are overexcited," said Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a leading sociologist at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
On the other major political news story of this year who would run for the presidential elections next March our analysts were wrong, predicting a continuation of the status quo with Medvedev in the driving seat rather than the nomination of Putin for a return to offi ce.
WTO and a high oil price
On business news, the analysts we polled were fairly wide off the mark. Renaissance Capital analyst Anton Nikitin's forecast an oil price of $80-90 a barrel was some $20 lower than the actual average price. The higher-than-expected price was caused by a wave of unrest in the Arab world that caused fears of supply shortages.
Our experts were also wrong in predicting that Russia would not be admitted to the World Trade Organization, an error they should probably be for forgiven for, given that Russia has been trying to enter the global trade body for the past two decades and was fi nally admitted only in the last few weeks of 2011.
Alfa Bank's Natalia Orlova said that that "the risk of competitive depreciation and non-cooperative decisions will reduce the attractiveness of WTO membership."
Transport tragedies
2011 is also likely to go down in history as the year when the problem of Russia's worn-out infrastructure reared its ugly head through a string of devastating catastrophes.
In June 44 people were killed when a Soviet-era Tupolev plane crashed during take-off in Petrozavodsk, causing the authorities to call for a mass overhaul of the transport industry. But the prescribed overhaul couldn't come fast enough just two weeks later, a cruise boat sank on the River Volga, killing 125 holidaymakers, including dozens of children.
August, the month Russia usually awaits catastrophe in some form, passed relatively uneventfully. But the transport saga was back on the news in September, when the entire line-up of one of the country's prized hockey teams, Lokomotiv, was wiped out in another plane crash, this time in Yaroslavl.
Ice storms, warm December
Locally, the year began with vicious ice storms that wiped out power in the city's airports and ended with the warmest December in five years.
In January a terrorist attack at Domodedovo Airport that killed 37 people came as a warning that tensions in Russia's south were still far from buried and caused the authorities to frantically step up security.
For most of the rest of the year, news focused on the continuing overhaul of City Hall and the implementation of a couple of ambitious projects to improve life in the city, such as the complete makeover of Gorky Park.
As our analysts predicted, there was little noticeable headway on Mayor Sergei Sobyanin's plan to reduce the city's crippling traffi c congestion problems.
"A drastic change in the situation is impossible by default," Sergei Kanayev, head of the Russian car owners' federation's Moscow offi ce, said last year. "But if Sobyanin pursues a consistent policy towards the traffi c issue, without taking populist steps, improvements will be noticeable."
However the mayor did produce a surprise solution to the issue, when he announced a plan in the summer to tack an enormous tie-shaped extension on to the southwest corner of the city in a bid to reduce traffi c pressure on the center.
The Moscow News asks experts to put their crystal balls on the line, and tell us what they foresee for the year ahead.
Politics
1. Will Vladimir Putin win the presidential election, and if so in the first or the second round?
He'll definitely win, and in the first round. But much will hang on the protest activity and general destabilization ahead of the March 4 elections. Certain forces in the Kremlin believe that the second round should be allowed, but this view is opposed by Putin. He fears he may lose in a second round, which may be the case given that 65 percent voted against United Russia. But I don't think they'll allow a second round. (Stanislav Belkovsky, director of the Institute of National Strategy)
He'll win in the first round only if the vote is rigged, but this will undermine his legitimacy. He has a high chance to win in the second round, because there's no other alternative so far. (Dmitry Oreshkin, president of the Mercator think tank)
Putin will falsify the elections in the first round, but then he will leave. I give him from two days to two years. (Vladimir Pribylovsky, head of the Panorama think tank)
Putin will win in the second round. (Alexander Rahr, German Council on Foreign Relations)
2. Who will Russia's prime minister be at the end of 2012?
Medvedev I think Putin will keep his promise. (Belkovsky) I think Alexei Kudrin will be PM by the end of 2012. (Rahr)
3. Who will emerge as Russia's most popular opposition leader?
Navalny, definitely, he's in the foreground. (Belkovsky)
The opposition will be restructured now there's no opposition as such. New, younger leaders are likely to emerge, and maybe Navalny will take the lead. (Oreshkin)
He has already emerged Alexei Navalny. (Pribylovsky)
Zyuganov will get through to the second round against Putin, but the strongest opposition leader will come from the nationalist camp. (Rahr)
4. Will Russia's opposition protests grow or fade away in 2012?
They'll grow, especially spurred on by the fraud expected in the presidential election. (Belkovsky)
The protest movement will acquire a new character. Instead of street rallies, protests will become systemic, remaining within the legal framework. A strike, for instance, is an effective, legal form of protest. (Oreshkin)
5. Will the next Russian president be more liberal, or more authoritarian?
Russia is sick of authoritarianism, which is why its next president after Putin will be either a national democrat like Navalny or a social democrat like Oksana Dmitriyeva. (Belkovsky)
They'll try to tighten the screws, using liberal rhetoric at the same time. The ruling class is trying to bring new leaders to the fore such as Kudrin and Prokhorov. They're looking for a figure who could allow them to bow out without compromising their essential interests and meet protesters' demands. (Oreshkin)
Economics
6. Will the next government implement an austerity program in 2012? If so, what spending will they cut or taxes/tariffs will they hike?
The new government will not change its fiscal policy, and is unlikely to decrease social spending. (Natalya Orlova, chief economist, Alfa Bank)
We'll see a reduction in social spending by the middle of the next year. (Yekaterina Andreyanova, strategist, Rye, Man and Gor Securities)
7. What will be the ruble/dollar exchange rate at the end of 2012?
33 (Orlova), 29 (Osin).
8. What level will the RTS reach by the end of next year?
2,000 (Osin).
9. What will the oil price be at the end of 2012?
$125 (Osin), $100 (Orlova and Andreyanova).
10. Which Russian company will be the biggest success story of 2012?
Gazprom, as the company has increased its exports to Europe by 15 percent and achieved more control over distribution networks. (Osin)
11. Will Russians' average real incomes rise or fall?
Real incomes will rise slightly, by 1.5 percent at most. (Orlova)
12. Will Russia escape a new wave of the crisis?
We're already in crisis, together with Europe. (Orlova)
13. Will WTO membership be a positive for Russia?
Russia has already made so many concessions to join the WTO. I don't see how it can get any worse, only improve. (Osin)
Moscow
14. What will be Mayor Sergei Sobyanin's biggest success and failures in 2012?
His biggest success will be if he stays in office. There will be some significant changes in the highest ranks of power, so if he manages to stay despite these changes it will be a big success for him. (Pribylovsky)
15. Will Moscow real estate prices rise or fall?
I think prices for real estate in Moscow will rise in the next few years. (Pribylovsky)
16. Will the city's transport and traffic improve or get worse?
It seems traffic is as bad as possible, but I think it will get worse. (Pribylovsky)
International relations
17. Will Russia's relations with the United States improve or get worse?
Relations with US will be cold like today, but no Cold War. (Rahr)
18. Will there be a popular revolution in the former Soviet Union, and if so in which country or countries would that most likely take place?
Ukraine could face a new orange revolution in 2012.
Arts & Entertainment
19. What will be the most commercially successful Russian film of 2012?
'Mamy' ('Moms'), [to be released on March 1, ahead of International Women's Day]. It has a very good promotion campaign. (Igor Aizenberg, head of advertising at KinoPoisk. ru)
20. What will Moscow's cultural highlights be next year?
Polish director Krystian Lupa's "Simone's Body" is coming to Moscow it will be staged as part of the annual Golden Mask festival. Lupa's work was staged at the Golden Mask in the spring of 2011, and made a huge impression on Muscovites so it stands to reason that they will turn out for more of his excellent theater. (Critic Christina Matvienko)
St. Petersburg's [controversial] Mikhailovsky Theater is going to be staging ballet performances as part of the Golden Mask festival this spring. The Mikhailovsky has somehow managed to outshine the legendary Mariinsky Theater recently it will be really interesting to watch how they do in Moscow. (Critic Elena Kovalskaya)
21. Will the new, revamped Bolshoi Theater live up to expectations?
The Bolshoi attracts a lot of international talent nowadays and Sergei Filin, the Bolshoi Ballet's artistic director, is young and wonderful. That's why 2012 ought to be a success for the Bolshoi. The revamping is probably irrelevant aside from the huge costs associated with it. (Matvienko)
There is no reason why the Bolshoi shouldn't have an excellent year. Now that the Bolshoi has been revamped, there is more room to experiment there. A new stage allows them the chance to diversify and do more controversial stuff without losing their core audience. (Kovalskaya)
Sports
22. How far will Russia progress in the Euro-2012 finals in Ukraine and Poland?
Russia will definitely progress from the group to the playoffs. At the draw, our squad got as lucky as never before. I hope there will be no surprises in the group stage, but I wouldn't predict what will happen next. (Andrei Bogdanov, football writer at Sovietsky Sport)
23. Who will win the Russian football premier league?
Zenit CSKA hasn't been putting in a stable performance, and there are no other contenders. (Bogdanov)
24. How many medals will Russia win in the 2012 London Olympics?
Russia should win about 80 medals. (Yury Dud, editor-in-chief, Sports.ru)
---------
A year of surprises, tragedies and a change in political fortunes
Natasha Doff
In years to come, 2011 might come to be written about in history books as the year when Russia changed its course politically.
Discontent with the stagnant ruling elite grew throughout the year, fuelled by increasing use of the Internet and anger at a string of tragic transport catastrophes. The tension fi nally came to a head in December when anger over alleged election fraud sparked the biggest protests the country has seen in decades.
Last year, like this year, we asked a panel of experts to make predictions for the forthcoming year and at 60 percent correct, their score was around 10 percent lower than the experts surveyed the year before.
Political surprises
While none of our political experts predicted the current state of affairs in the country, their forecasts did come close. In particular, they predicted that no new political party would emerge to challenge United Russia and that youth activism would rise.
"Youth activism is very high, and it will become even more active. Young people have understood that this is their time they are overexcited," said Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a leading sociologist at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
On the other major political news story of this year who would run for the presidential elections next March our analysts were wrong, predicting a continuation of the status quo with Medvedev in the driving seat rather than the nomination of Putin for a return to offi ce.
WTO and a high oil price
On business news, the analysts we polled were fairly wide off the mark. Renaissance Capital analyst Anton Nikitin's forecast an oil price of $80-90 a barrel was some $20 lower than the actual average price. The higher-than-expected price was caused by a wave of unrest in the Arab world that caused fears of supply shortages.
Our experts were also wrong in predicting that Russia would not be admitted to the World Trade Organization, an error they should probably be for forgiven for, given that Russia has been trying to enter the global trade body for the past two decades and was fi nally admitted only in the last few weeks of 2011.
Alfa Bank's Natalia Orlova said that that "the risk of competitive depreciation and non-cooperative decisions will reduce the attractiveness of WTO membership."
Transport tragedies
2011 is also likely to go down in history as the year when the problem of Russia's worn-out infrastructure reared its ugly head through a string of devastating catastrophes.
In June 44 people were killed when a Soviet-era Tupolev plane crashed during take-off in Petrozavodsk, causing the authorities to call for a mass overhaul of the transport industry. But the prescribed overhaul couldn't come fast enough just two weeks later, a cruise boat sank on the River Volga, killing 125 holidaymakers, including dozens of children.
August, the month Russia usually awaits catastrophe in some form, passed relatively uneventfully. But the transport saga was back on the news in September, when the entire line-up of one of the country's prized hockey teams, Lokomotiv, was wiped out in another plane crash, this time in Yaroslavl.
Ice storms, warm December
Locally, the year began with vicious ice storms that wiped out power in the city's airports and ended with the warmest December in five years.
In January a terrorist attack at Domodedovo Airport that killed 37 people came as a warning that tensions in Russia's south were still far from buried and caused the authorities to frantically step up security.
For most of the rest of the year, news focused on the continuing overhaul of City Hall and the implementation of a couple of ambitious projects to improve life in the city, such as the complete makeover of Gorky Park.
As our analysts predicted, there was little noticeable headway on Mayor Sergei Sobyanin's plan to reduce the city's crippling traffi c congestion problems.
"A drastic change in the situation is impossible by default," Sergei Kanayev, head of the Russian car owners' federation's Moscow offi ce, said last year. "But if Sobyanin pursues a consistent policy towards the traffi c issue, without taking populist steps, improvements will be noticeable."
However the mayor did produce a surprise solution to the issue, when he announced a plan in the summer to tack an enormous tie-shaped extension on to the southwest corner of the city in a bid to reduce traffi c pressure on the center.