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For Lev Gudkov, the director of the Levada-Center, Russia's only independent polling institution, it is no big surprise that the protest movement is slowing down.

Levada was established in 2004 by a team of sociologists who left stateowned VTsIOM (the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion). Gudkov, who holds a doctorate of philosophy, recalls those times as the period when the government "wanted to bring the organization under control, clean it up and make it an obedient Kremlin structure."

According to Gudkov, VTsIOM fell out of favor because of their study of people's attitude to the war in Chechnya and United Russia's ratings dropping. After refusing to change its structure, VTsIOM became a target for legal inquiries.

"We realized where it was all headed," Gudkov told The Moscow News. "So we created an independent organization, VTSIOM-A, and moved there leaving behind an empty office." They were later asked to change the title, at which point Levada Center was officially born.

Gudkov said there have been attempts to pressure Levada's customers, but there is no pressure at the moment. "If they could, they'd certainly destroy us," he said of the ruling establishment. "The only explanation is that the Kremlin also needs valid and objective data."

"We exist thanks to different survey orders and winning tenders and competitions," he said of Levada. One of the recent paid surveys done by the center was commissioned by the World Bank, and is focused on Russian attitudes to the court system and judiciary reforms.

Creeping fear

Levada runs several continuous projects and monitors long-term trends. Such polls are always conducted face to face ­ telephone interviews are not considered representative as only 29 percent of people in villages have phones. Interviewers have certain established routines for that, such as going to every 37th flat and talking to a person whose birthday is closest to the date of the survey. Gudkov says that during perestroika, people were eager to be interviewed. A decade later, they began losing interest and fear appeared ­ the fear of opening doors to strangers and fear of the interview itself.

But if a person is not willing to express their own opinion, there are still ways around to get to know what they think ­ by asking about the beliefs they encounter.

Protest slowdown

The protest movement slowing down is, according to Gudkov, natural. "There is a cycle of protest movements," he said. "They could have continued or transformed into something different if civic structures were available to them."

According to Gudkov, the sense of stability Russians had between the years of 2002 and 2008, when incomes were growing significantly, has been lost. The reasons for the discontent that spurred mass protests are still there ­ and as such, the protest mood will not fade away.

Gudkov also believes that trying to discredit civil movements doesn't do the government any favors, especially since populist promises are no longer going down so well. "People have been deceived so many times that they have developed a sense of political distrust," he said.

Although the image of the average protester is urban, Gudkov says that discontent is also present far away from city life ­ but that people there are more conservative, with many longing for Soviet times.

In Moscow, Gudkov said, it is a sense of self-respect that brings people out into the streets. ["Moscow protesters believe] that the regime is blocking economic, social and intellectual development of the country, and that this is dangerous for the future of the country," he said. "And [this view] differs much from the provinces, [where the mood] is depressive."

Changing times

Gudkov believes that either way, the political climate in Russia is changing. "The efforts of Kremlin propaganda were aimed at stopping the [government's] rating from dropping," Gudkov said of the pre-election season, explaining that this was unusual, since there is normally a surge in ratings during the election campaign.

Gudkov believes that chief among Russia's problems is the dominance of consumer culture, which in turn means a lack of values, historical consciousness and intergenerational continuity. Gudkov believes that such problems are a reason why violence rates remain high. "Violence in sociological terms is the devaluation of another person," he said.

"Sometimes, [this job] causes a deep depression when everything seems hopeless, gray and dull," he said. "But on the other hand, [last winter] after a long period of demoralization, cynicism and apathy, there suddenly appeared self-respect."

Keywords: Russia, Economy - Life in Russia, Culture - Russian News - Russia

 

For Lev Gudkov, the director of the Levada-Center, Russia's only independent polling institution, it is no big surprise that the protest movement is slowing down.

Levada was established in 2004 by a team of sociologists who left stateowned VTsIOM (the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion). Gudkov, who holds a doctorate of philosophy, recalls those times as the period when the government "wanted to bring the organization under control, clean it up and make it an obedient Kremlin structure."

According to Gudkov, VTsIOM fell out of favor because of their study of people's attitude to the war in Chechnya and United Russia's ratings dropping. After refusing to change its structure, VTsIOM became a target for legal inquiries.

"We realized where it was all headed," Gudkov told The Moscow News. "So we created an independent organization, VTSIOM-A, and moved there leaving behind an empty office." They were later asked to change the title, at which point Levada Center was officially born.

Gudkov said there have been attempts to pressure Levada's customers, but there is no pressure at the moment. "If they could, they'd certainly destroy us," he said of the ruling establishment. "The only explanation is that the Kremlin also needs valid and objective data."

"We exist thanks to different survey orders and winning tenders and competitions," he said of Levada. One of the recent paid surveys done by the center was commissioned by the World Bank, and is focused on Russian attitudes to the court system and judiciary reforms.

Creeping fear

Levada runs several continuous projects and monitors long-term trends. Such polls are always conducted face to face ­ telephone interviews are not considered representative as only 29 percent of people in villages have phones. Interviewers have certain established routines for that, such as going to every 37th flat and talking to a person whose birthday is closest to the date of the survey. Gudkov says that during perestroika, people were eager to be interviewed. A decade later, they began losing interest and fear appeared ­ the fear of opening doors to strangers and fear of the interview itself.

But if a person is not willing to express their own opinion, there are still ways around to get to know what they think ­ by asking about the beliefs they encounter.

Protest slowdown

The protest movement slowing down is, according to Gudkov, natural. "There is a cycle of protest movements," he said. "They could have continued or transformed into something different if civic structures were available to them."

According to Gudkov, the sense of stability Russians had between the years of 2002 and 2008, when incomes were growing significantly, has been lost. The reasons for the discontent that spurred mass protests are still there ­ and as such, the protest mood will not fade away.

Gudkov also believes that trying to discredit civil movements doesn't do the government any favors, especially since populist promises are no longer going down so well. "People have been deceived so many times that they have developed a sense of political distrust," he said.

Although the image of the average protester is urban, Gudkov says that discontent is also present far away from city life ­ but that people there are more conservative, with many longing for Soviet times.

In Moscow, Gudkov said, it is a sense of self-respect that brings people out into the streets. ["Moscow protesters believe] that the regime is blocking economic, social and intellectual development of the country, and that this is dangerous for the future of the country," he said. "And [this view] differs much from the provinces, [where the mood] is depressive."

Changing times

Gudkov believes that either way, the political climate in Russia is changing. "The efforts of Kremlin propaganda were aimed at stopping the [government's] rating from dropping," Gudkov said of the pre-election season, explaining that this was unusual, since there is normally a surge in ratings during the election campaign.

Gudkov believes that chief among Russia's problems is the dominance of consumer culture, which in turn means a lack of values, historical consciousness and intergenerational continuity. Gudkov believes that such problems are a reason why violence rates remain high. "Violence in sociological terms is the devaluation of another person," he said.

"Sometimes, [this job] causes a deep depression when everything seems hopeless, gray and dull," he said. "But on the other hand, [last winter] after a long period of demoralization, cynicism and apathy, there suddenly appeared self-respect."

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