MOSCOW. Jan 25 (Interfax) - High-profile Russian political analyst Gleb Pavlovsky has argued there is a brighter political future in store for billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov and former finance minister Alexei Kudrin than for President Dmitry Medvedev. "To be able to forecast who the future leaders of the country are, who the future government will consist of, and who may become president, one should carefully analyze not as much what Medvedev says as what Kudrin keeps silent about," Pavlovsky told Interfax in comments on a meeting between Medvedev and students at the journalism department of Moscow State University on Wednesday.
"The strategies of people such as Kudrin, Prokhorov and (activist blogger) Alexei Navalny have more elements that are important for the future than the rhetoric of the esteemed Dmitry Anatolyevich (Medvedev)," the analyst said.
Medvedev's statement that he is willing to run for president again in a while "reflects the extreme instability of his position as an independent politician," Pavlovsky said.
"If he is willing to become president, why has he refused to try to now? He needs to explain very clearly why he believes that he is not worthy of this position today but that he will consider himself to be worthy of it when he is six or 12 years older," Pavlovsky said.
"This statement raises the question, not whether Medvedev is fit to be president, but whether he is fit to be premier. Will he be able to put together a competent government that Russia needs? Will he be able to put together an independent government?" he said.
He said Medvedev's idea of seeking presidential office again is based on the assumption that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has a guaranteed six years of office as president.
"Yet we can see that he doesn't have those guaranteed years of presidency, because he doesn't even have the necessary degree of confidence now, in the election process. So he'll have to do something about it. It's nearly guaranteed that he will have to call early elections for the State Duma, and maybe an early presidential election as well," Pavlovsky said.
"We were able to see this autumn and winter that, having tremendous resources, including resources of confidence, the government has managed to lose them all very quickly. So it's clear today that this government is off Russia's agenda for the next few years and off the future economic and political agenda," he said.
"On this agenda there are people who have been coming to the rallies, some of the organizers but far from all, and people from the former establishment who have adopted their own course," Pavlovsky said. He said those he was referring to included Kudrin, Prokhorov, Navalny and Kirov region governor Nikita Belykh.
"I think that there already exists a party behind them. At the moment, it's a silent party in the establishment who have realized they have made a mistake by pushing Putin into seeking the third term. They've got no candidate or ideas at the moment, but they will be gradually coming out into the foreground, one by one," the analyst said.
Later they might be joined by some of today's opposition leaders but not the leaders of any of the parties represented in today's parliament, he said.
Pavlovsky said the Medvedev-Putin tandem was "strange" and looked rather like two men in a "lifeboat."
"Putin needs support, he's got weaker and doesn't have the love of the people that was the case before, he needs some allies, and Medvedev is exactly that kind of ally. They've developed a new, strange tandem, one that looks like a lifeboat. There are the two of them in it and they're asking everyone around not to rock it, but there's only them in that boat," Pavlovsky said.
Keywords: Russia, Government, Politics - Russia News - Russia
MOSCOW. Jan 25 (Interfax) - High-profile Russian political analyst Gleb Pavlovsky has argued there is a brighter political future in store for billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov and former finance minister Alexei Kudrin than for President Dmitry Medvedev.
"To be able to forecast who the future leaders of the country are, who the future government will consist of, and who may become president, one should carefully analyze not as much what Medvedev says as what Kudrin keeps silent about," Pavlovsky told Interfax in comments on a meeting between Medvedev and students at the journalism department of Moscow State University on Wednesday.
"The strategies of people such as Kudrin, Prokhorov and (activist blogger) Alexei Navalny have more elements that are important for the future than the rhetoric of the esteemed Dmitry Anatolyevich (Medvedev)," the analyst said.
Medvedev's statement that he is willing to run for president again in a while "reflects the extreme instability of his position as an independent politician," Pavlovsky said.
"If he is willing to become president, why has he refused to try to now? He needs to explain very clearly why he believes that he is not worthy of this position today but that he will consider himself to be worthy of it when he is six or 12 years older," Pavlovsky said.
"This statement raises the question, not whether Medvedev is fit to be president, but whether he is fit to be premier. Will he be able to put together a competent government that Russia needs? Will he be able to put together an independent government?" he said.
He said Medvedev's idea of seeking presidential office again is based on the assumption that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has a guaranteed six years of office as president.
"Yet we can see that he doesn't have those guaranteed years of presidency, because he doesn't even have the necessary degree of confidence now, in the election process. So he'll have to do something about it. It's nearly guaranteed that he will have to call early elections for the State Duma, and maybe an early presidential election as well," Pavlovsky said.
"We were able to see this autumn and winter that, having tremendous resources, including resources of confidence, the government has managed to lose them all very quickly. So it's clear today that this government is off Russia's agenda for the next few years and off the future economic and political agenda," he said.
"On this agenda there are people who have been coming to the rallies, some of the organizers but far from all, and people from the former establishment who have adopted their own course," Pavlovsky said. He said those he was referring to included Kudrin, Prokhorov, Navalny and Kirov region governor Nikita Belykh.
"I think that there already exists a party behind them. At the moment, it's a silent party in the establishment who have realized they have made a mistake by pushing Putin into seeking the third term. They've got no candidate or ideas at the moment, but they will be gradually coming out into the foreground, one by one," the analyst said.
Later they might be joined by some of today's opposition leaders but not the leaders of any of the parties represented in today's parliament, he said.
Pavlovsky said the Medvedev-Putin tandem was "strange" and looked rather like two men in a "lifeboat."
"Putin needs support, he's got weaker and doesn't have the love of the people that was the case before, he needs some allies, and Medvedev is exactly that kind of ally. They've developed a new, strange tandem, one that looks like a lifeboat. There are the two of them in it and they're asking everyone around not to rock it, but there's only them in that boat," Pavlovsky said.