Russian Econ Ministry raises 2012 oil forecast to $115/barrel
Interfax - 4.3.12 - JRL 2012-61
MOSCOW. April 3 (Interfax) - The Russian Economic Development Ministry has raised its forecast oil price in 2012 to $115 from $100 a barrel, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said at an international conference on the development of economy and society, organized by the Higher School of Economics.
The oil price forecast for 2013 and 2014 has not altered, Nabiullina said.
"We're probably at a cyclical peak in oil prices," she said.
"We work on the basis that oil prices will fall, and they could fall this year [compared with today's price]. According to our adjusted forecast, oil will average at $115 a barrel in 2012. We forecast $100 for this year in September, but the high prices we had in Q1 mean the average for the year will be $115, even if prices fall at the end of the year. But we are so far leaving our 2013 and 2014 price estimates of $97 and $101 unchanged," Nabiullina said.
The long-term risks on this market have to be assessed, she said. "There's the potential for shale oil to hit the market, for Iraq to return, and this will curb price growth," Nabiullina said.
An Economic Development Ministry representative told Interfax that oil prices are expected to go down in the second half of this year - roughly to $102 per barrel by year-end. So, this source said, the decision was made not to increase oil-price forecasts for 2013. The source said that a reduction in the oil price will be associated with a rising amount of oil on offer, including from Saudi Arabia. He added that the possible heating up of tensions surrounding Iran and Syria is not considered in the forecast. "If that is taken into consideration, then the price forecast would have to be raised even further," he said.
Keywords: Russia, Oil, Energy - Russian News - Russia
MOSCOW. April 3 (Interfax) - The Russian Economic Development Ministry has raised its forecast oil price in 2012 to $115 from $100 a barrel, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said at an international conference on the development of economy and society, organized by the Higher School of Economics.
The oil price forecast for 2013 and 2014 has not altered, Nabiullina said.
"We're probably at a cyclical peak in oil prices," she said.
"We work on the basis that oil prices will fall, and they could fall this year [compared with today's price]. According to our adjusted forecast, oil will average at $115 a barrel in 2012. We forecast $100 for this year in September, but the high prices we had in Q1 mean the average for the year will be $115, even if prices fall at the end of the year. But we are so far leaving our 2013 and 2014 price estimates of $97 and $101 un