"In Italy, for 30 years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had 500 years of democracy and peace ­ and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock." ­ Orson Welles/Harry Lime, 'The Third Man'

'The tandem is dead ­ long live the tandem!'

These may be the words on officials' lips as Dmitry Medvedev gets set to leave the Kremlin, and the chances of his being appointed (and remaining) prime minister look less certain by the day. But appearances, as they say, can be deceptive.

In fact, Vladimir Putin's new administration is more likely to see the coming to power not of a new tandem, but a new troika.

This troika will represent the three main centers of power and influence in the elite ­ oil, finance capital and the siloviki.

The first member of the troika, of course, will be Putin himself. As the guarantor of siloviki influence, Putin will remain the ultimate arbiter in Russian politics ­ as he has been during Medvedev's presidency.

The second man in the troika will probably continue to be Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, the country's energy tsar. Although originally from the siloviki, Sechin undoubtedly now speaks for the country's powerful oil and gas lobby.

The troika's third man, in true Graham Greene fashion, will represent the speculative world of finance capital. During Medvedev's presidency, he himself played the role of conduit for Russia's big bankers.

The last nail in the coffin for Medvedev's chances of being a reformist prime minister was probably banged home by Igor Yurgens, his ex-chief cheerleader, who has now jumped ship and put his weight behind Alexei Kudrin, the former finance minister, to return as prime minister. Either in or out of government, Kudrin now seems likely to lead the "oligarch" party, representing finance capital, alongside candidate Mikhail Prokhorov and other leading billionaires.

Just when we will know the identity of the third man, as he steps out of the shadows and the zither begins to play, remains to be seen. But the days of the Kremlin's current troika appear to be numbered.

Keywords: Russia, Politics - Russia News - Russia

"In Italy, for 30 years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had 500 years of democracy and peace ­ and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock." ­ Orson Welles/Harry Lime, 'The Third Man'

'The tandem is dead ­ long live the tandem!'

These may be the words on officials' lips as Dmitry Medvedev gets set to leave the Kremlin, and the chances of his being appointed (and remaining) prime minister look less certain by the day. But appearances, as they say, can be deceptive.

In fact, Vladimir Putin's new administration is more likely to see the coming to power not of a new tandem, but a new troika.

This troika will represent the three main centers of power and influence in the elite ­ oil, finance capital and the siloviki.

The first member of the troika, of course, will be Putin himself. As the guarantor of siloviki influence, Putin will remain the ultimate arbiter in Russian politics ­ as he has been during Medvedev's presidency.

The second man in the troika will probably continue to be Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, the country's energy tsar. Although originally from the siloviki, Sechin undoubtedly now speaks for the country's powerful oil and gas lobby.

The troika's third man, in true Graham Greene fashion, will represent the speculative world of finance capital. During Medvedev's presidency, he himself played the role of conduit for Russia's big bankers.

The last nail in the coffin for Medvedev's chances of being a reformist prime minister was probably banged home by Igor Yurgens, his ex-chief cheerleader, who has now jumped ship and put his weight behind Alexei Kudrin, the former finance minister, to return as prime minister. Either in or out of government, Kudrin now seems likely to lead the "oligarch" party, representing finance capital, alongside candidate Mikhail Prokhorov and other leading billionaires.

Just when we will know the identity of the third man, as he steps out of the shadows and the zither begins to play, remains to be seen. But the days of the Kremlin's current troika appear to be numbered.