Russia's inflation rate for 2011 hit a historical mark -- the lowest since the collapse of the Soviet Union -- having plummeted to 6.1 percent from 8.8 percent registered in 2010 and 2009. Consumers might enjoy lower prices in the first half of 2012, analysts say, but no new records are to be expected.
Tariffs increase, postponed to the second half of the year, together with an expected poorer harvest than Russia reaped in 2011 are to take their toll.
Bountiful harvest
An unusually rich harvest in 2011, which came after an unfruitful year, was one of the main reasons for the unprecedented low inflation, analysts agree. The extremely high rates for agricultural production, including a double the average potato production, according to Rosstat's data, even caused food-price deflation in August for the first time since 2005, which is unlikely to happen again this year.
The Central Bank also helped in the curbing of price rises as currency expansion was significantly less than the year previously, Yulia Tseplyayeva, chief economist at BNP Paribas, told Vedomosti. And raising interest rates had also a positive effect, she added.
Foreign capital outflow, estimated at $80 billion, was another important factor, according to analysts from Uralsib, Kommersant reported.
Forecasts for the year ahead
For the first time, the actual inflation rate, confirmed by the State Statistic Committee, or Rosstat, yesterday, has come in under the government's official estimate of 6.2-6.5 percent.
And the new prognosis for 2012 from the Economic Development Ministry looks rather optimistic with the inflation rate set at 5-6 percent.
Alexander Morozov, an economist from HSBC, estimates the inflation rate to rise up to 7-7.5 percent by the end of 2012, although he said it is hard to predict what happens with the trend.
"It's not clear how it will be affected by expectations, which are more conservative and stagnant," he told Vedomosti.
The official goal, however, set by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ahead of the coming presidential elections, seems to disagree with any prognosis.
The head of the government who is expected to return to presidency after the election in March promised the inflation to be held within 3-3.5 percent in the short- or mid-term, Kommersant reported.
Russia's inflation rate for 2011 hit a historical mark -- the lowest since the collapse of the Soviet Union -- having plummeted to 6.1 percent from 8.8 percent registered in 2010 and 2009.
Consumers might enjoy lower prices in the first half of 2012, analysts say, but no new records are to be expected.
Tariffs increase, postponed to the second half of the year, together with an expected poorer harvest than Russia reaped in 2011 are to take their toll.
Bountiful harvest
An unusually rich harvest in 2011, which came after an unfruitful year, was one of the main reasons for the unprecedented low inflation, analysts agree. The extremely high rates for agricultural production, including a double the average potato production, according to Rosstat's data, even caused food-price deflation in August for the first time since 2005, which is unlikely to happen again this year.
The Central Bank also helped in the curbing of price rises as currency expansion was significantly less than the year previously, Yulia Tseplyayeva, chief economist at BNP Paribas, told Vedomosti. And raising interest rates had also a positive effect, she added.
Foreign capital outflow, estimated at $80 billion, was another important factor, according to analysts from Uralsib, Kommersant reported.
Forecasts for the year ahead
For the first time, the actual inflation rate, confirmed by the State Statistic Committee, or Rosstat, yesterday, has come in under the government's official estimate of 6.2-6.5 percent.
And the new prognosis for 2012 from the Economic Development Ministry looks rather optimistic with the inflation rate set at 5-6 percent.
Alexander Morozov, an economist from HSBC, estimates the inflation rate to rise up to 7-7.5 percent by the end of 2012, although he said it is hard to predict what happens with the trend.
"It's not clear how it will be affected by expectations, which are more conservative and stagnant," he told Vedomosti.
The official goal, however, set by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ahead of the coming presidential elections, seems to disagree with any prognosis.
The head of the government who is expected to return to presidency after the election in March promised the inflation to be held within 3-3.5 percent in the short- or mid-term, Kommersant reported.