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Global Warming In Russia Worse Than World's Average - Ministry
RIA-Novosti - 1.16.12 - JRL 2012-12

Moscow, 16 January: The average rise in temperatures in Russia over the past 100 years has been 50-100 per cent higher than the global warming rate, the Russian Emergencies Ministry reported on Monday (16 January). "Furthermore, compared with the 100-year trend, over the past several decades, the warming rate has increased several-fold, annual precipitation has increased; the annual river flow of Russia's major rivers, frequency and scale of floods are on the rise. In the Arctic, the area of sea ice has been rapidly contracting over the past 30 years, against the backdrop of considerable year-to-year variations," a forecast of 2012 emergencies on the territory of the Russian Federation prepared by the Russian Emergencies Ministry said.

According to the document, during the 21st century the average ground air temperature on the territory of Russia will continue to rise.

Arctic and melting ice

"The biggest warming is to be expected in Siberia and in Russia's northern regions as well as in the Arctic. In regions where there is sufficient or excessive moisture, water resources will increase, while in areas where there is currently insufficient water supply, it is expected to reduce further," the forecast said.

At the same time the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean will be decreasing throughout the whole century, largely because of the reduction of the area of multi-year ice. (Passage omitted)

Simultaneously there has been a drop in the depth of multi-year ice. If in the 1990s multi-year ice over 5 m. deep made up 28 per cent of all Arctic ice, in the winter of 2010 it accounted for not more than 6 per cent. The depth of the bulk of the largest ice floes reduced to 2.2 m. and is near the depth of one-year ice. (Passage omitted)

The degradation of the ice cover, in turn, causes a further acceleration of warming as the melting of ice results in the reduction of the reflection of solar radiation and therefore in an increase in heat absorption.

The positive outcomes of this process for Russia include the prospect of developing hydrocarbon reserves on the Arctic shelf and a considerable improvement in navigation conditions along the Northern Sea Route. Experts predict that the Northern Sea Route will be available (for navigation) for six months a year by about 2035. (Passage omitted)

Calculations give reason to expect changes for the worse in many regions in terms of the statistics of various extreme and dangerous phenomena, including heat waves, forest fires, droughts, extreme precipitation.

Snow, water and floods in European Russia

According to the Emergencies Ministry, European Russia should expect a reduction in snow cover and an increase in winter river flows. At the same time, in the north and east of Asian Russia, where solid precipitation prevails, there will be an increase in the amount of snow accumulated during winter and its faster melting in spring, which increases the risk of flooding. (Passage omitted)

The ministry predicts that by 2030 the average winter temperature in northwest Russia may increase by 1.7-2 degrees Centigrade and the average summer temperature, by 0.9-1 per cent.

The expected climate change in central Russia may result in poorer harvests, especially of spring-sown cereals, because of lower soil moisture during the vegetation period and an increase in the frequency of forest and peat bog fires.

Losses and benefits

Climate change will have an increasingly large influence on the economic and living conditions on the whole territory of Russia. In the opinion of the Emergencies Ministry, particular attention should be paid to the negative consequences of extreme and dangerous natural phenomena, the number of which grows year on year, resulting in an increase in the number of factors contributing to natural and man-made disasters.

Climate change leads to two-fold consequences for the country's economy. (Passage omitted)

The damage caused by the existing regional climate change trends, including extreme and dangerous weather conditions, may reach an average 1-2 per cent of GDP. On some, quite large, territories, it may be considerably higher, 4-5 per cent of regional GDP.

At the same time some of the consequences of climate change open "windows of opportunity" for developing the economy, for instance, in connection with a potentially favourable for a considerable part of the territory of the Russian Federation trend for a reduction of the heating season and, therefore, a reduction in requirements in and cost of fuel and heating (accompanied however by a rise in the cost of air conditioning). Furthermore, advantages from climate change are linked to a trend towards a longer vegetation period, an expansion of the area of farming and, consequently, a rise in agricultural production, a longer navigation period and water transport opportunities.

"It appears that the cumulative effect of the above trends as regards the direct impact of climate change on the country's economy to 2030 will consist in damage (including, primarily, damage caused by dangerous natural phenomena) exceeding the above-mentioned benefits. At the same time, this will have little impact on the macroeconomic indicators of Russia's overall economic development in the said period, although in some regions of the country, the braking effect may be considerable," the authors of the report concluded.

Keywords: Russia, Environment - Russia News - Russia

 

Moscow, 16 January: The average rise in temperatures in Russia over the past 100 years has been 50-100 per cent higher than the global warming rate, the Russian Emergencies Ministry reported on Monday (16 January).

"Furthermore, compared with the 100-year trend, over the past several decades, the warming rate has increased several-fold, annual precipitation has increased; the annual river flow of Russia's major rivers, frequency and scale of floods are on the rise. In the Arctic, the area of sea ice has been rapidly contracting over the past 30 years, against the backdrop of considerable year-to-year variations," a forecast of 2012 emergencies on the territory of the Russian Federation prepared by the Russian Emergencies Ministry said.

According to the document, during the 21st century the average ground air temperature on the territory of Russia will continue to rise.

Arctic and melting ice

"The biggest warming is to be expected in Siberia and in Russia's northern regions as well as in the Arctic. In regions where there is sufficient or excessive moisture, water resources will increase, while in areas where there is currently insufficient water supply, it is expected to reduce further," the forecast said.

At the same time the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean will be decreasing throughout the whole century, largely because of the reduction of the area of multi-year ice. (Passage omitted)

Simultaneously there has been a drop in the depth of multi-year ice. If in the 1990s multi-year ice over 5 m. deep made up 28 per cent of all Arctic ice, in the winter of 2010 it accounted for not more than 6 per cent. The depth of the bulk of the largest ice floes reduced to 2.2 m. and is near the depth of one-year ice. (Passage omitted)

The degradation of the ice cover, in turn, causes a further acceleration of warming as the melting of ice results in the reduction of the reflection of solar radiation and therefore in an increase in heat absorption.

The positive outcomes of this process for Russia include the prospect of developing hydrocarbon reserves on the Arctic shelf and a considerable improvement in navigation conditions along the Northern Sea Route. Experts predict that the Northern Sea Route will be available (for navigation) for six months a year by about 2035. (Passage omitted)

Calculations give reason to expect changes for the worse in many regions in terms of the statistics of various extreme and dangerous phenomena, including heat waves, forest fires, droughts, extreme precipitation.

Snow, water and floods in European Russia

According to the Emergencies Ministry, European Russia should expect a reduction in snow cover and an increase in winter river flows. At the same time, in the north and east of Asian Russia, where solid precipitation prevails, there will be an increase in the amount of snow accumulated during winter and its faster melting in spring, which increases the risk of flooding. (Passage omitted)

The ministry predicts that by 2030 the average winter temperature in northwest Russia may increase by 1.7-2 degrees Centigrade and the average summer temperature, by 0.9-1 per cent.

The expected climate change in central Russia may result in poorer harvests, especially of spring-sown cereals, because of lower soil moisture during the vegetation period and an increase in the frequency of forest and peat bog fires.

Losses and benefits

Climate change will have an increasingly large influence on the economic and living conditions on the whole territory of Russia. In the opinion of the Emergencies Ministry, particular attention should be paid to the negative consequences of extreme and dangerous natural phenomena, the number of which grows year on year, resulting in an increase in the number of factors contributing to natural and man-made disasters.

Climate change leads to two-fold consequences for the country's economy. (Passage omitted)

The damage caused by the existing regional climate change trends, including extreme and dangerous weather conditions, may reach an average 1-2 per cent of GDP. On some, quite large, territories, it may be considerably higher, 4-5 per cent of regional GDP.

At the same time some of the consequences of climate change open "windows of opportunity" for developing the economy, for instance, in connection with a potentially favourable for a considerable part of the territory of the Russian Federation trend for a reduction of the heating season and, therefore, a reduction in requirements in and cost of fuel and heating (accompanied however by a rise in the cost of air conditioning). Furthermore, advantages from climate change are linked to a trend towards a longer vegetation period, an expansion of the area of farming and, consequently, a rise in agricultural production, a longer navigation period and water transport opportunities.

"It appears that the cumulative effect of the above trends as regards the direct impact of climate change on the country's economy to 2030 will consist in damage (including, primarily, damage caused by dangerous natural phenomena) exceeding the above-mentioned benefits. At the same time, this will have little impact on the macroeconomic indicators of Russia's overall economic development in the said period, although in some regions of the country, the braking effect may be considerable," the authors of the report concluded.