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Political analysts disagree on the left-wing opposition's prospects of gaining a majority of seats in the next State Duma: some believe that One Russia's (United Russia) positions will still be strong and some of the voters of the current parliamentary opposition parties will vote for new parties; while others believe that the left-wing forces have a serious chance to become a ruling force in the parliament, on certain conditions.
In 2011, the Centre for Strategic Studies led by Mikhail Dmitriyev published a report about the threat of a political crisis in Russia. According to the report, the current authorities' popularity will continue to fall and, consequently, the protest movement will grow in Moscow and other big cities. The authors of the report warned that after the parliamentary and presidential elections, which would be won by One Russia and the ruling tandem's candidate, there would be a risk of their de-legitimization. The authors offered their own versions of political reforms. Now the centre's experts are preparing a new report, Russian RIA Novosti reported on 14 March.

Duma parties' prospects

President of the Centre for Strategic Research Mikhail Dmitriyev, co-author of the high-profile report, believes that no re-branding will help One Russia and in the next elections the left-wing opposition might gain a majority in the Duma, but only under certain conditions: the Communist Party must seriously "rejuvenate" itself and A Just Russia must change its leader, the expert said in an interview with RIA Novosti on 14 March.

He believes that One Russia's main problem is that it is based on an outdated electoral model. Dmitriyev says that One Russia "needs to move either much closer to the left, which means even greater confrontation with the urban population, or much closer to the right and at the same time break with the interests of narrow rent-orientated groups which have tremendous control over the current authorities". Neither of the options is a realistic solution for One Russia, Dmitriyev said.

One Russia is sceptical about this forecast. First deputy secretary of the Presidium of the General Council Sergey Zheleznyak compared these estimates with predictions of the end of the world that always go wrong and said that the party would improve its work and remain a ruling force in demand. In his view, space for One Russia's political activities is not shrinking but, on the contrary, is expanding, since "in the difficult international, financial and economic situation in the world, demand for stability and predictable development" will increase.

"One Russia, as a party which follows the principle of stable development, development without upheavals, will definitely be in demand," Zheleznyak said.

Deputy secretary of the presidium of the General Council of One Russia Yuriy Shuvalov believes that new political realities will force the party to change, for instance to stop calling itself "party of power", Russian Interfax news agency reported on 14 March.

"I think that a 'party of power' is a dangerous description and we must give it up," Shuvalov told Interfax.

According to Shuvalov, it would be better to speak about One Russia as a ruling party with a majority in the parliament.

While this allows One Russia MPs to pass through the Duma decisions even when they are not supported by the other three factions, the party is not interested in achieving results in this way, Shuvalov said.

"We are interested in taking decisions in alliance with other parties, not through One Russia's votes only," he said.

According to Shuvalov, this situation is new and it has developed since the parliamentary elections in December.

This situation forces the party to renew itself. An internal debate is under way in the party on whether One Russia should be a party of ideology or a kind of people's party based on wider sections of society, Shuvalov said.

Shuvalov believes that this discussion might have prompted some media to write about a split in the party. "There is no split. There are discussions and different points of view are put forward," Shuvalov said.

Political analyst Dmitry Orlov told RIA Novosti that One Russia's popularity "has increased during the quieter period". "Many think this is strange. Actually what happened is that the negative propaganda campaign has stopped and the phrase 'party of crooks and thieves' has lost its edge," he said. He believes it is possible that One Russia will retain or slightly improve its position in the Duma, whereas the opposition's possibilities will be seriously restricted by smaller parties "which will steal a significant number of their voters in elections".

Political analyst Mikhail Remizov believes that "the left-wing opposition has a good chance to become a ruling force in the parliament". However, he believes that if the Communist Party and A Just Russia want to realize the chance, they must, first, unite and, second, seriously rejuvenate themselves.

The Communist Party agreed with the forecast and said it was ready become the future backbone of the left-wing majority in the Duma.

"This is a very accurate forecast that we are moving towards a left-wing majority in the next Duma. The authorities' pro-oligarchic conservatism slows down the state's response to society's even increasing demand for development and justice. At the beginning of the new cycle we have the best starting positions, we have the most serious political weight, and we intend to work to make sure that the Communist Party becomes the backbone of a future left-wing majority," first deputy chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party Ivan Melnikov said.

At the same time he believes that the recommendation to "rejuvenate" party is inappropriate because this process is already in full swing in the Communist Party.

Chairman of A Just Russia Nikolay Levichev saw nothing new in Dmitriyev's predictions that the left-wing opposition would win the next Duma elections and said his party had predicted the same thing. Commenting on the idea of replacing Mironov as the party's leader, he said that the concept of leader in A Just Russia is informal. "The party members gave Sergey Mikhaylovich (Mironov) this informal status," he said. The party's formal chairman is Nikolay Levichev.

Political analyst Mikhail Remizov believes that One Russia is unlikely to stay in its present form.

"I think there are two options. Either there will be an attempt to reformat One Russia under the auspices of the All-Russian People's Front; and this will be a second edition of the party in power. The effect will be achieved by going away from One Russia's negative background and positioning itself ... as a party that brings together different layers and sections of society around Putin," he said.

The other option, according to Remizov, is to "abandon the idea of ??a single party in power".

Speaking of the parliamentary opposition, Orlov said that all three parliamentary parties - the Communists, A Just Russia and the LDPR - need to replace their leaders.

"In A Just Russia at least (Oksana) Dmitriyeva and (Gennadiy) Gudkov are more popular and maybe even much more respected than (the party's leader Sergey) Mironov. As for the Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist Party, Zyuganov's and Zhirinovskiy's long tenure as the parties' leaders create a big problem," Orlov said.

According to Orlov, the Liberal Democratic Party is in a real crisis, which typifies leader-orientated parties.

"There is simply no person in it who could become an alternative leader of the party," Orlov said.

Conversely, political analyst Maksim Grigoriyev sees no preconditions for changes in the line-up of the Duma opposition leaders.

"Zyuganov's result in the election was sufficiently stable ... so I see no preconditions for Zyuganov to be replaced as leader of the Communist Party. A replacement of Zhirinovskiy will in effect mean the elimination of the party (LDPR), so no other leader of the Liberal Democratic Party is possible in principle," he said.

According to Grigoriyev, Mironov's poor performance in the presidential election does not mean that A Just Russia must replace its leader.

"A Just Russia got a good result in the parliamentary elections; and Mironov was never considered as presidential material. But people are quite happy with him as leader of A Just Russia. His modest result in the election does not mean his failure as leader A Just Russia who should be replaced," Grigoriyev said.

Probability of early Duma elections

According to Dmitriyev, who said earlier that the authorities would have to make concessions to the opposition, including the formation of a coalition government, new parliamentary elections in Russia will take place early - not in 2016, but in 2015.

Political analysts have doubts about this prediction: they believe this may profit neither the authorities nor the opposition.

"At the moment I think this is, first, unlikely, and second, unfavourable for the parliamentary opposition parties ... There was a period of protest activity, and it certainly affected the political situation in society. But I think that simpler rules for the registration of political parties in conjunction with the forthcoming big cycle of regional elections and gubernatorial elections will create a very significant range of opportunities for the Russian political class, including its protest part," Orlov said.

In his view, these possibilities will be quite enough for new opposition parties, "their involvement in the political process, even without snap parliamentary elections, will be high". The Ministry of Justice has already received 68 applications for new parties.

"They will no longer feel the need for a big prize in the form of parliamentary elections. So I think that at the moment the opposition does not need early parliamentary elections," the analyst said.

Remizov believes that "early parliamentary elections are unrealistic in the near future, even if we take the December, January-February 2013".

"First, the current authorities today are not under same pressure as they were in December and January. That is, there is no need to carry out some deep reforms or take some emergency measures. In addition, the new opposition is absolutely not ready for this, because the possibility to build parties has just appeared ... In this time is it possible to prepare from scratch for regional elections, and maybe try their hand, but it would be unreal to prepare for federal elections," he said.

At the same time, he believes it is possible to hold new parliamentary elections, when a "new party political landscape will appear". According to Remizov, this can happen in three years.

Keywords: Russia, Politics - Russian News - Russia

 

Political analysts disagree on the left-wing opposition's prospects of gaining a majority of seats in the next State Duma: some believe that One Russia's (United Russia) positions will still be strong and some of the voters of the current parliamentary opposition parties will vote for new parties; while others believe that the left-wing forces have a serious chance to become a ruling force in the parliament, on certain conditions.

In 2011, the Centre for Strategic Studies led by Mikhail Dmitriyev published a report about the threat of a political crisis in Russia. According to the report, the current authorities' popularity will continue to fall and, consequently, the protest movement will grow in Moscow and other big cities. The authors of the report warned that after the parliamentary and presidential elections, which would be won by One Russia and the ruling tandem's candidate, there would be a risk of their de-legitimization. The authors offered their own versions of political reforms. Now the centre's experts are preparing a new report, Russian RIA Novosti reported on 14 March.

Duma parties' prospects

President of the Centre for Strategic Research Mikhail Dmitriyev, co-author of the high-profile report, believes that no re-branding will help One Russia and in the next elections the left-wing opposition might gain a majority in the Duma, but only under certain conditions: the Communist Party must seriously "rejuvenate" itself and A Just Russia must change its leader, the expert said in an interview with RIA Novosti on 14 March.

He believes that One Russia's main problem is that it is based on an outdated electoral model. Dmitriyev says that One Russia "needs to move either much closer to the left, which means even greater confrontation with the urban population, or much closer to the right and at the same time break with the interests of narrow rent-orientated groups which have tremendous control over the current authorities". Neither of the options is a realistic solution for One Russia, Dmitriyev said.

One Russia is sceptical about this forecast. First deputy secretary of the Presidium of the General Council Sergey Zheleznyak compared these estimates with predictions of the end of the world that always go wrong and said that the party would improve its work and remain a ruling force in demand. In his view, space for One Russia's political activities is not shrinking but, on the contrary, is expanding, since "in the difficult international, financial and economic situation in the world, demand for stability and predictable development" will increase.

"One Russia, as a party which follows the principle of stable development, development without upheavals, will definitely be in demand," Zheleznyak said.

Deputy secretary of the presidium of the General Council of One Russia Yuriy Shuvalov believes that new political realities will force the party to change, for instance to stop calling itself "party of power", Russian Interfax news agency reported on 14 March.

"I think that a 'party of power' is a dangerous description and we must give it up," Shuvalov told Interfax.

According to Shuvalov, it would be better to speak about One Russia as a ruling party with a majority in the parliament.

While this allows One Russia MPs to pass through the Duma decisions even when they are not supported by the other three factions, the party is not interested in achieving results in this way, Shuvalov said.

"We are interested in taking decisions in alliance with other parties, not through One Russia's votes only," he said.

According to Shuvalov, this situation is new and it has developed since the parliamentary elections in December.

This situation forces the party to renew itself. An internal debate is under way in the party on whether One Russia should be a party of ideology or a kind of people's party based on wider sections of society, Shuvalov said.

Shuvalov believes that this discussion might have prompted some media to write about a split in the party. "There is no split. There are discussions and different points of view are put forward," Shuvalov said.

Political analyst Dmitry Orlov told RIA Novosti that One Russia's popularity "has increased during the quieter period". "Many think this is strange. Actually what happened is that the negative propaganda campaign has stopped and the phrase 'party of crooks and thieves' has lost its edge," he said. He believes it is possible that One Russia will retain or slightly improve its position in the Duma, whereas the opposition's possibilities will be seriously restricted by smaller parties "which will steal a significant number of their voters in elections".

Political analyst Mikhail Remizov believes that "the left-wing opposition has a good chance to become a ruling force in the parliament". However, he believes that if the Communist Party and A Just Russia want to realize the chance, they must, first, unite and, second, seriously rejuvenate themselves.

The Communist Party agreed with the forecast and said it was ready become the future backbone of the left-wing majority in the Duma.

"This is a very accurate forecast that we are moving towards a left-wing majority in the next Duma. The authorities' pro-oligarchic conservatism slows down the state's response to society's even increasing demand for development and justice. At the beginning of the new cycle we have the best starting positions, we have the most serious political weight, and we intend to work to make sure that the Communist Party becomes the backbone of a future left-wing majority," first deputy chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party Ivan Melnikov said.

At the same time he believes that the recommendation to "rejuvenate" party is inappropriate because this process is already in full swing in the Communist Party.

Chairman of A Just Russia Nikolay Levichev saw nothing new in Dmitriyev's predictions that the left-wing opposition would win the next Duma elections and said his party had predicted the same thing. Commenting on the idea of replacing Mironov as the party's leader, he said that the concept of leader in A Just Russia is informal. "The party members gave Sergey Mikhaylovich (Mironov) this informal status," he said. The party's formal chairman is Nikolay Levichev.

Political analyst Mikhail Remizov believes that One Russia is unlikely to stay in its present form.

"I think there are two options. Either there will be an attempt to reformat One Russia under the auspices of the All-Russian People's Front; and this will be a second edition of the party in power. The effect will be achieved by going away from One Russia's negative background and positioning itself ... as a party that brings together different layers and sections of society around Putin," he said.

The other option, according to Remizov, is to "abandon the idea of ??a single party in power".

Speaking of the parliamentary opposition, Orlov said that all three parliamentary parties - the Communists, A Just Russia and the LDPR - need to replace their leaders.

"In A Just Russia at least (Oksana) Dmitriyeva and (Gennadiy) Gudkov are more popular and maybe even much more respected than (the party's leader Sergey) Mironov. As for the Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist Party, Zyuganov's and Zhirinovskiy's long tenure as the parties' leaders create a big problem," Orlov said.

According to Orlov, the Liberal Democratic Party is in a real crisis, which typifies leader-orientated parties.

"There is simply no person in it who could become an alternative leader of the party," Orlov said.

Conversely, political analyst Maksim Grigoriyev sees no preconditions for changes in the line-up of the Duma opposition leaders.

"Zyuganov's result in the election was sufficiently stable ... so I see no preconditions for Zyuganov to be replaced as leader of the Communist Party. A replacement of Zhirinovskiy will in effect mean the elimination of the party (LDPR), so no other leader of the Liberal Democratic Party is possible in principle," he said.

According to Grigoriyev, Mironov's poor performance in the presidential election does not mean that A Just Russia must replace its leader.

"A Just Russia got a good result in the parliamentary elections; and Mironov was never considered as presidential material. But people are quite happy with him as leader of A Just Russia. His modest result in the election does not mean his failure as leader A Just Russia who should be replaced," Grigoriyev said.

Probability of early Duma elections

According to Dmitriyev, who said earlier that the authorities would have to make concessions to the opposition, including the formation of a coalition government, new parliamentary elections in Russia will take place early - not in 2016, but in 2015.

Political analysts have doubts about this prediction: they believe this may profit neither the authorities nor the opposition.

"At the moment I think this is, first, unlikely, and second, unfavourable for the parliamentary opposition parties ... There was a period of protest activity, and it certainly affected the political situation in society. But I think that simpler rules for the registration of political parties in conjunction with the forthcoming big cycle of regional elections and gubernatorial elections will create a very significant range of opportunities for the Russian political class, including its protest part," Orlov said.

In his view, these possibilities will be quite enough for new opposition parties, "their involvement in the political process, even without snap parliamentary elections, will be high". The Ministry of Justice has already received 68 applications for new parties.

"They will no longer feel the need for a big prize in the form of parliamentary elections. So I think that at the moment the opposition does not need early parliamentary elections," the analyst said.

Remizov believes that "early parliamentary elections are unrealistic in the near future, even if we take the December, January-February 2013".

"First, the current authorities today are not under same pressure as they were in December and January. That is, there is no need to carry out some deep reforms or take some emergency measures. In addition, the new opposition is absolutely not ready for this, because the possibility to build parties has just appeared ... In this time is it possible to prepare from scratch for regional elections, and maybe try their hand, but it would be unreal to prepare for federal elections," he said.

At the same time, he believes it is possible to hold new parliamentary elections, when a "new party political landscape will appear". According to Remizov, this can happen in three years.