Moscow, 24 January: The EU bringing in an oil embargo against Iran will not turn into a disaster for the country, however it is too early to talk about prospects for Tehran's blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, Russian experts polled by the RIA Novosti news agency have said. (Passage omitted) In the opinion of an expert with the Institute of Strategic Assessments and Analysis, Sergey Demidenko, one cannot speak about (the sanctions') serious impact on the Iranian economy, because it was China and Japan, not European countries, that are key (Iranian oil) consumers.
"There is no tragedy at this stage for any of the countries yet. Europe has rejected what it didn't need anyway, and with a certain amount of writhing, Iran can plug that hole," the expert said.
He recalled that Europe receives around one-quarter of the total volume of the Iranian oil that is produced, whereas as countries of Northern Europe, as well as the UK, France and Germany do not buy Iranian oil products.
Nevertheless, Iranian leader (Mahmud) Ahmadinezhad seldom showed artifice when it comes to economic issues, so "if a critical mass continues to build, this will become yet another factor that will impact on the stability of the Iranian regime".
Speaking on the prospects for the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to undertake, the expert noted that "Iran can do virtually nothing (to this end)". "All of these talks about blocking the Strait of Hormuz are bluff... (ellipses as received throughout) They will not risk their entire fleet and defence capabilities for the sake of one-quarter of their national income," he said.
A senior research fellow at the Oriental Studies Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, professor Vladimir Sazhin, agrees. "I hope that it will not come to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, there are indications of this emerging. First of all, the Iranian leaders have softened their statements as regards the Strait of Hormuz of late. And second - a group of aircraft carriers led by the USS Abraham Lincoln passed through the Strait of Hormuz incident-free literally just days ago, despite the Iranians saying that they would not allow ships to pass through the strait before this. I think that Tehran is perfectly well aware of what a block can lead to, I doubt that this will happen," he said.
In his words, "if Iran announces the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, this will be a de facto declaration of war on the USA and Arab countries of the Persian Gulf. This will be the start of a war, because the American side will not tolerate such a blockade and will try to unblock the strait with force". In Sazhin's words, a possible war would lead to an absolute social, political, economic and energy disaster.
Commenting on the oil embargo and EU sanctions, the expert noted that "for Iran, this is not a fatal blow, of course, but one that they will feel... Iran could lose between 18 to 24 bn dollars a year, this is a considerable amount". "This is a very serious warning to Iran... The very supposition that the embargo will be brought in does serious damage to the Iranian economy. If a final embargo is brought in, this will be a strong blow - not a fatal one, but a very strong one," he said.
The expert also expressed the hope that the introduction of sanctions "will ultimately prod Iran towards more constructive dialogue with the global community, specifically with the 'six' ('five plus one' group of international mediators) and the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) on solving the nuclear problem. We are already hearing voices from Tehran about being ready for talks".
Meanwhile, the president of the Middle East Institute, Yevgeniy Satanovskiy, is sure that the EU oil embargo will not get in the way of Iran creating nuclear weapons, but may deliver a blow to the most economically vulnerable eurozone members.
"The European Union has reported, to itself first and foremost, that it sustained colossal economic losses but took serious steps to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Iran looked at all of that with interest, shrugged and continued chasing after a nuclear bomb," he said.
Satanovskiy noted that EU sanctions will not become a disaster for Iran, because Europe will continue to buy Iranian oil for the next six months. Furthermore, even though a large volume of Iranian oil goes to Europe, no less goes to China, India and Turkey, which have not backed the embargo. In any case, Satanovskiy does not expect the rejection of Iranian oil to become a catastrophe for EU states. "In 12 to 18 months Iran will have nuclear weapons... Europe, which receives material and moral support from the Arab monarchies, will have a redistribution of its oil sources. Ultimately, the Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar will give any quantity of liquefied gas and oil to Europe," he said. (Passage omitted to end)
Keywords: Russia, Iran - Russia News - Russia
Moscow, 24 January: The EU bringing in an oil embargo against Iran will not turn into a disaster for the country, however it is too early to talk about prospects for Tehran's blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, Russian experts polled by the RIA Novosti news agency have said. (Passage omitted)
In the opinion of an expert with the Institute of Strategic Assessments and Analysis, Sergey Demidenko, one cannot speak about (the sanctions') serious impact on the Iranian economy, because it was China and Japan, not European countries, that are key (Iranian oil) consumers.
"There is no tragedy at this stage for any of the countries yet. Europe has rejected what it didn't need anyway, and with a certain amount of writhing, Iran can plug that hole," the expert said.
He recalled that Europe receives around one-quarter of the total volume of the Iranian oil that is produced, whereas as countries of Northern Europe, as well as the UK, France and Germany do not buy Iranian oil products.
Nevertheless, Iranian leader (Mahmud) Ahmadinezhad seldom showed artifice when it comes to economic issues, so "if a critical mass continues to build, this will become yet another factor that will impact on the stability of the Iranian regime".
Speaking on the prospects for the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to undertake, the expert noted that "Iran can do virtually nothing (to this end)". "All of these talks about blocking the Strait of Hormuz are bluff... (ellipses as received throughout) They will not risk their entire fleet and defence capabilities for the sake of one-quarter of their national income," he said.
A senior research fellow at the Oriental Studies Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, professor Vladimir Sazhin, agrees. "I hope that it will not come to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, there are indications of this emerging. First of all, the Iranian leaders have softened their statements as regards the Strait of Hormuz of late. And second - a group of aircraft carriers led by the USS Abraham Lincoln passed through the Strait of Hormuz incident-free literally just days ago, despite the Iranians saying that they would not allow ships to pass through the strait before this. I think that Tehran is perfectly well aware of what a block can lead to, I doubt that this will happen," he said.
In his words, "if Iran announces the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, this will be a de facto declaration of war on the USA and Arab countries of the Persian Gulf. This will be the start of a war, because the American side will not tolerate such a blockade and will try to unblock the strait with force". In Sazhin's words, a possible war would lead to an absolute social, political, economic and energy disaster.
Commenting on the oil embargo and EU sanctions, the expert noted that "for Iran, this is not a fatal blow, of course, but one that they will feel... Iran could lose between 18 to 24 bn dollars a year, this is a considerable amount". "This is a very serious warning to Iran... The very supposition that the embargo will be brought in does serious damage to the Iranian economy. If a final embargo is brought in, this will be a strong blow - not a fatal one, but a very strong one," he said.
The expert also expressed the hope that the introduction of sanctions "will ultimately prod Iran towards more constructive dialogue with the global community, specifically with the 'six' ('five plus one' group of international mediators) and the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) on solving the nuclear problem. We are already hearing voices from Tehran about being ready for talks".
Meanwhile, the president of the Middle East Institute, Yevgeniy Satanovskiy, is sure that the EU oil embargo will not get in the way of Iran creating nuclear weapons, but may deliver a blow to the most economically vulnerable eurozone members.
"The European Union has reported, to itself first and foremost, that it sustained colossal economic losses but took serious steps to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Iran looked at all of that with interest, shrugged and continued chasing after a nuclear bomb," he said.
Satanovskiy noted that EU sanctions will not become a disaster for Iran, because Europe will continue to buy Iranian oil for the next six months. Furthermore, even though a large volume of Iranian oil goes to Europe, no less goes to China, India and Turkey, which have not backed the embargo. In any case, Satanovskiy does not expect the rejection of Iranian oil to become a catastrophe for EU states. "In 12 to 18 months Iran will have nuclear weapons... Europe, which receives material and moral support from the Arab monarchies, will have a redistribution of its oil sources. Ultimately, the Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar will give any quantity of liquefied gas and oil to Europe," he said. (Passage omitted to end)