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Crouching Bear, Hidden Tiger
Putin's New Foreign Policy Eyes China to Boost Russia's Economy as the Eurozone Crisis Deepens
Dan Peleschuk - Russia Profile - russiaprofile.org - 6.6.12 - JRL 2012-102

President Vladimir Putin has been on an international diplomacy kick lately, keeping up relations with major powers on both sides of the Russian border. But as he visits China this week, the bigger picture is becoming clearer: Russia, it appears, is turning toward the East. Following up on his pre-election promises to place China on the high-priority list of his foreign policy agenda, Putin seems to be brushing Europe aside while embracing the Asian tiger's economic growth. But a great-power rivalry, driven by a scramble for influence in Central Asia, persists between Russia and China and suggests a tense future.

For Putin, the past several days have been all about diplomacy. In recent meetings with EU leaders ­ first with the German and French heads of state, and more recently with top EU officials ­ the newly-elected president seemed to make some limited progress, agreeing on the urgency of a UN-brokered ceasefire in Syria as well as on the potential of opening up and strengthening trade ties between Russia and the European body.

But the real news only began to unravel as Putin made his way to China on Tuesday for a three-day visit, expected to set the tone of his new foreign policy. On the agenda for discussion between Russia and China are a slew of key agreements, including on energy, trade and foreign policy cooperation. Putin told the Chinese media ahead of his visit that he plans to boost bilateral trade with China to $200 billion per year by 2020, up from the current $83 billion, RIA Novsoti reported. The two countries are also set to discuss plans for a multibillion-dollar "Eurasian land bridge," which would connect Western Europe with East Asia.

This should come as no surprise. After all, among the lynchpins of Putin's third-term foreign policy agenda is an urge to pursue greater integration with Russia's eastern partner, which has shown remarkable resilience amidst the global recession. For Putin, China is a new frontier that offers incredible potential for Russian growth, a fact he hasn't exactly hid since he revealed his new foreign policy plan on the campaign trail late last year. "I am convinced that China's economic growth is by no means a threat, but a challenge that carries colossal potential for business cooperation ­ a chance to catch the Chinese wind in the sails of our economy," Putin wrote for Moskovskie Novosti in late February.

The Chinese option, besides offering tangible benefits for Russian economic development, is also a welcome alternative to the steadily growing headaches on the other side of the border, where the eurozone crisis deepens seemingly by the week. Putin called the crisis "worrisome" for Russia in his policy article, though he addressed it more directly during his meeting with EU leaders in St. Petersburg on Monday. According to RFE/RL, Putin warned officials that the crisis threatens to drag down Russia's economy and damage trade ties between the two major players ­ a key basis of their relations.

On the surface, it seems China would be the logical next step for a Russia frustrated with a financially troubled Europe and an increasingly critical United States. But under closer scrutiny, chasing the Chinese dream won't amount to smooth sailing. The Asian behemoth has in recent years boosted its role in Central Asia, Russia's traditional backyard, and sought closer economic participation with the post-Soviet states there. It has also eyed their natural resources to keep its massive, oil-hungry economy running and its energy dependence diversified.

Chinese influence in the region has appeared in the form of the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security union that has grown in recent years to tackle political, economic and social issues in Central Asia. Besides Russia, it features Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as members, and in some ways rivals the fledgling, Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. Experts say it might also limit the potential influence of Putin's ambitious Eurasian Union project, which seeks to pull Russia's post-Soviet backyard together into a massive economic alliance.

According to foreign policy analyst Arkady Moshes, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, China's increasing clout in Russia's sphere of influence presents a "huge challenge" that Putin "cannot ignore anymore." But he also added that Russian growth, paradoxically, is largely dependent on a resurgent China, and that Moscow would do well to tame its own regional ambitions. "That the Russia-China relationship can become a China-dominated partnership, as opposed to an alliance of equals, is a serious reality. Russia needs China at the moment more than it is ready to admit," Moshes said. "Russia is trying to please China and to find a way not to irritate it too much."

Others said Russia has already come to terms with China's rise. The Moscow leadership "no longer sees China as a junior partner," said Alexander Rahr, a Berlin-based Russia analyst, and "it doesn't look down on Asia like it did even ten years ago ­ it looks up to Asia." And while the rivalry within Central Asia persists, Rahr added that both powers have been united by their vision of a multi-polar world, especially amidst the Middle East violence throughout the past year. "Both China and Russia do not want to live in a unipolar world that is dominated by the United States and Western values," Rahr said. "I don't think that Russia and China really care for Syria and Bashar al-Assad, and they didn't care for Muammar Qaddafi personally. What they really cared about is that the West wouldn't be given the carte blanche to play the gendarme all over the world."

Keywords: Russia, Economy, Investment, Trade - Russia, China - Russian News - Russia

President Vladimir Putin has been on an international diplomacy kick lately, keeping up relations with major powers on both sides of the Russian border. But as he visits China this week, the bigger picture is becoming clearer: Russia, it appears, is turning toward the East. Following up on his pre-election promises to place China on the high-priority list of his foreign policy agenda, Putin seems to be brushing Europe aside while embracing the Asian tiger's economic growth. But a great-power rivalry, driven by a scramble for influence in Central Asia, persists between Russia and China and suggests a tense future.

For Putin, the past several days have been all about diplomacy. In recent meetings with EU leaders ­ first with the German and French heads of state, and more recently with top EU officials ­ the newly-elected president seemed to make some limited progress, agreeing on the urgency of a UN-brokered ceasefire in Syria as well as on the potential of opening up and strengthening trade ties between Russia and the European body.

But the real news only began to unravel as Putin made his way to China on Tuesday for a three-day visit, expected to set the tone of his new foreign policy. On the agenda for discussion between Russia and China are a slew of key agreements, including on energy, trade and foreign policy cooperation. Putin told the Chinese media ahead of his visit that he plans to boost bilateral trade with China to $200 billion per year by 2020, up from the current $83 billion, RIA Novsoti reported. The two countries are also set to discuss plans for a multibillion-dollar "Eurasian land bridge," which would connect Western Europe with East Asia.

This should come as no surprise. After all, among the lynchpins of Putin's third-term foreign policy agenda is an urge to pursue greater integration with Russia's eastern partner, which has shown remarkable resilience amidst the global recession. For Putin, China is a new frontier that offers incredible potential for Russian growth, a fact he hasn't exactly hid since he revealed his new foreign policy plan on the campaign trail late last year. "I am convinced that China's economic growth is by no means a threat, but a challenge that carries colossal potential for business cooperation ­ a chance to catch the Chinese wind in the sails of our economy," Putin wrote for Moskovskie Novosti in late February.

The Chinese option, besides offering tangible benefits for Russian economic development, is also a welcome alternative to the steadily growing headaches on the other side of the border, where the eurozone crisis deepens seemingly by the week. Putin called the crisis "worrisome" for Russia in his policy article, though he addressed it more directly during his meeting with EU leaders in St. Petersburg on Monday. According to RFE/RL, Putin warned officials that the crisis threatens to drag down Russia's economy and damage trade ties between the two major players ­ a key basis of their relations.

On the surface, it seems China would be the logical next step for a Russia frustrated with a financially troubled Europe and an increasingly critical United States. But under closer scrutiny, chasing the Chinese dream won't amount to smooth sailing. The Asian behemoth has in recent years boosted its role in Central Asia, Russia's traditional backyard, and sought closer economic participation with the post-Soviet states there. It has also eyed their natural resources to keep its massive, oil-hungry economy running and its energy dependence diversified.

Chinese influence in the region has appeared in the form of the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security union that has grown in recent years to tackle political, economic and social issues in Central Asia. Besides Russia, it features Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as members, and in some ways rivals the fledgling, Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. Experts say it might also limit the potential influence of Putin's ambitious Eurasian Union project, which seeks to pull Russia's post-Soviet backyard together into a massive economic alliance.

According to foreign policy analyst Arkady Moshes, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, China's increasing clout in Russia's sphere of influence presents a "huge challenge" that Putin "cannot ignore anymore." But he also added that Russian growth, paradoxically, is largely dependent on a resurgent China, and that Moscow would do well to tame its own regional ambitions. "That the Russia-China relationship can become a China-dominated partnership, as opposed to an alliance of equals, is a serious reality. Russia needs China at the moment more than it is ready to admit," Moshes said. "Russia is trying to please China and to find a way not to irritate it too much."

Others said Russia has already come to terms with China's rise. The Moscow leadership "no longer sees China as a junior partner," said Alexander Rahr, a Berlin-based Russia analyst, and "it doesn't look down on Asia like it did even ten years ago ­ it looks up to Asia." And while the rivalry within Central Asia persists, Rahr added that both powers have been united by their vision of a multi-polar world, especially amidst the Middle East violence throughout the past year. "Both China and Russia do not want to live in a unipolar world that is dominated by the United States and Western values," Rahr said. "I don't think that Russia and China really care for Syria and Bashar al-Assad, and they didn't care for Muammar Qaddafi personally. What they really cared about is that the West wouldn't be given the carte blanche to play the gendarme all over the world."


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