More crackdowns likely
Yulia Ponomareva - Moscow News - themoscownews.com - 5.28.12 - JRL 2012-98

The Russian authorities appear convinced that force, provocations and tougher penalties for protesters are the way to deal with the opposition ­ but this is a tactic that may backfire, experts say.

file photoLast week, the Moscow-based Center for Strategic Research, which is one of the most renowned Russian think-tanks, published a report outlining possible scenarios for the development of the political situation.

According to the experts, the two most probable scenarios are political reaction and radical transformation. The former scenario suggests an escalation of political violence and crackdowns against the opposition, while the latter predicts that the government will lose credibility should the second wave of the global economic crisis hit Russia particularly hard, with protests then escalating across the country.

According to the report, discontent in Russia now exists on all levels of society ­ with people far from urban centers of protest also wanting reform ­ which could spell trouble for the government.

"On one hand, authorities cannot easily disperse protests as they did when rallies were small in size," the report says. "On the other hand, continuing protests are putting authorities in a very vulnerable position, showing the country and the world in general that the political crisis is becoming acuter while the government appears helpless."

In recent weeks, dialogue between the authorities and the opposition has appeared to be all but nonexistent. Protesters in Moscow have invited the authorities to visit their Occupy-style camps more than once ­ but so far, that has been in vain. Arrests of people wearing white ribbons, the symbol of the movement for fair elections, are ongoing.

Blogger Nikolai Altukhov reported that during the most recent dispersal of the OccupyArbat camp on May 27, where several dozen people were taken into custody, he heard an order to "arrest only those in white [clothes] or wearing white ribbons" over police radio.

Participants of sanctioned rallies have also faced arrests. On May 27, police arrested the organizer of a Moscow-based Yabloko rally for changing its subject. Ivanchikov brought up the issue of new legislation, which envisions raising fines for participating in unsanctioned protests, while the topic of the rally was Moscow mayoral elections.

On Sunday, police detained a participant of a mass rally on May 6, which famously descended into violence. Eighteen-year-old Alexandra Dukhonina faces charges of calls for unrest and of committing violence against a law enforcement official. In one of the videos from the rally, which took place on Bolotnaya Ploshchad, Dukhonina is seen throwing a stone at the police.

Gazeta.ru cited an anonymous police source as saying that Dukhonina's arrest is the first in a series of those planned for this week.

Several opposition leaders are also facing possible prison sentences. The leader of the Left Front movement, Sergei Udaltsov, is standing trial for allegedly hitting pro-Kremlin activist Anna Pozdnyakova, a reporter of Dorozhnoye Radio. Pozdnyakova claims that Udaltsov hit her at an anti-NATO rally in Ulyanovsk on April 21.

Pozdnyakova first testified to being hit on the arm, but was later diagnosed with a head injury. Despite the fact that her story had changed, Udaltsov expects the court to return a guilty verdict. "All our motions have been dismissed," he told The Moscow News. "I have a feeling that the court is executing a political order."

The trial is expected to continue until at least June 4. Udaltsov faces up to three months in jail if found guilty.

Provocations by Kremlinfriendly activists appear to be a common tactic against oppositionists. According to a Novaya Gazeta report published by activist Danila Lindele, who also works as spokesperson to opposition Duma deputy Ilya Ponomaryov, it was members of Nashi, a pro-Kremlin youth group, who sparked violence between police and protesters on May 6 in Moscow.

Several Nashi members are seen in videos and photos at the anti-Putin rally on Bolotnaya Ploshchad. One of them admitted to have thrown stones into riot police ­ but none have been arrested so far. And provocations by Nashi members remain ongoing at Occupy-style camps in Moscow, according to the protesters.

Another tactic that could help the government deal with protesters is new legislation which increases the maximum possible fine for street protesters convicted of breaking the law to 1.5 million rubles ($50,000). The legislation is expected to be in place before June 12, when the opposition is planning on holding more mass protests.

Vadim Kobzev, lawyer of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, said that now that the fines are likely to be increased, some people may stop going to protests, especially given that police and the courts coordinate their efforts against opposition members ­ but said that protesters should not feel discouraged.

"The choice of charges is absolutely up to them ­ there's an official deciding who to charge and with what, but you can escape being arrested by simply behaving in a more careful manner and leaving the venue when you feel the atmosphere is getting tense," Kobzev said.

Udaltsov, who is one of the organizers of the upcoming June 12 rally in Moscow, believes that in the current atmosphere, people may not look for official sanction to protest. "If authorities ban our rally, people will take to streets without getting their permission," he said.

The experts at the Center for Strategic Research have meanwhile called for dialogue between government-based proponents of modernization and the protesters.

"The authorities made a mistake by refusing to engage in a dialogue with the protesters at an earlier stage and to start cooperating with the bigger group of protesters supporting modernization and peaceful protests," the report says. "This reduces chances for dialogue now that tensions are growing and the conflict between the government and protesters is turning into a fierce confrontation."

Keywords: Russia, Government, Politics - Russian News - Russia

The Russian authorities appear convinced that force, provocations and tougher penalties for protesters are the way to deal with the opposition ­ but this is a tactic that may backfire, experts say.

file photoLast week, the Moscow-based Center for Strategic Research, which is one of the most renowned Russian think-tanks, published a report outlining possible scenarios for the development of the political situation.

According to the experts, the two most probable scenarios are political reaction and radical transformation. The former scenario suggests an escalation of political violence and crackdowns against the opposition, while the latter predicts that the government will lose credibility should the second wave of the global economic crisis hit Russia particularly hard, with protests then escalating across the country.

According to the report, discontent in Russia now exists on all levels of society ­ with people far from urban centers of protest also wanting reform ­ which could spell trouble for the government.

"On one hand, authorities cannot easily disperse protests as they did when rallies were small in size," the report says. "On the other hand, continuing protests are putting authorities in a very vulnerable position, showing the country and the world in general that the political crisis is becoming acuter while the government appears helpless."

In recent weeks, dialogue between the authorities and the opposition has appeared to be all but nonexistent. Protesters in Moscow have invited the authorities to visit their Occupy-style camps more than once ­ but so far, that has been in vain. Arrests of people wearing white ribbons, the symbol of the movement for fair elections, are ongoing.

Blogger Nikolai Altukhov reported that during the most recent dispersal of the OccupyArbat camp on May 27, where several dozen people were taken into custody, he heard an order to "arrest only those in white [clothes] or wearing white ribbons" over police radio.

Participants of sanctioned rallies have also faced arrests. On May 27, police arrested the organizer of a Moscow-based Yabloko rally for changing its subject. Ivanchikov brought up the issue of new legislation, which envisions raising fines for participating in unsanctioned protests, while the topic of the rally was Moscow mayoral elections.

On Sunday, police detained a participant of a mass rally on May 6, which famously descended into violence. Eighteen-year-old Alexandra Dukhonina faces charges of calls for unrest and of committing violence against a law enforcement official. In one of the videos from the rally, which took place on Bolotnaya Ploshchad, Dukhonina is seen throwing a stone at the police.

Gazeta.ru cited an anonymous police source as saying that Dukhonina's arrest is the first in a series of those planned for this week.

Several opposition leaders are also facing possible prison sentences. The leader of the Left Front movement, Sergei Udaltsov, is standing trial for allegedly hitting pro-Kremlin activist Anna Pozdnyakova, a reporter of Dorozhnoye Radio. Pozdnyakova claims that Udaltsov hit her at an anti-NATO rally in Ulyanovsk on April 21.

Pozdnyakova first testified to being hit on the arm, but was later diagnosed with a head injury. Despite the fact that her story had changed, Udaltsov expects the court to return a guilty verdict. "All our motions have been dismissed," he told The Moscow News. "I have a feeling that the court is executing a political order."

The trial is expected to continue until at least June 4. Udaltsov faces up to three months in jail if found guilty.

Provocations by Kremlinfriendly activists appear to be a common tactic against oppositionists. According to a Novaya Gazeta report published by activist Danila Lindele, who also works as spokesperson to opposition Duma deputy Ilya Ponomaryov, it was members of Nashi, a pro-Kremlin youth group, who sparked violence between police and protesters on May 6 in Moscow.

Several Nashi members are seen in videos and photos at the anti-Putin rally on Bolotnaya Ploshchad. One of them admitted to have thrown stones into riot police ­ but none have been arrested so far. And provocations by Nashi members remain ongoing at Occupy-style camps in Moscow, according to the protesters.

Another tactic that could help the government deal with protesters is new legislation which increases the maximum possible fine for street protesters convicted of breaking the law to 1.5 million rubles ($50,000). The legislation is expected to be in place before June 12, when the opposition is planning on holding more mass protests.

Vadim Kobzev, lawyer of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, said that now that the fines are likely to be increased, some people may stop going to protests, especially given that police and the courts coordinate their efforts against opposition members ­ but said that protesters should not feel discouraged.

"The choice of charges is absolutely up to them ­ there's an official deciding who to charge and with what, but you can escape being arrested by simply behaving in a more careful manner and leaving the venue when you feel the atmosphere is getting tense," Kobzev said.

Udaltsov, who is one of the organizers of the upcoming June 12 rally in Moscow, believes that in the current atmosphere, people may not look for official sanction to protest. "If authorities ban our rally, people will take to streets without getting their permission," he said.

The experts at the Center for Strategic Research have meanwhile called for dialogue between government-based proponents of modernization and the protesters.

"The authorities made a mistake by refusing to engage in a dialogue with the protesters at an earlier stage and to start cooperating with the bigger group of protesters supporting modernization and peaceful protests," the report says. "This reduces chances for dialogue now that tensions are growing and the conflict between the government and protesters is turning into a fierce confrontation."