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Russian Pundits Preview Likely Cabinet Reshuffles
Interfax - 3.12.12 - JRL 2012-47

Two Russian political experts, Gleb Pavlovskiy and Aleksey Makarkin, have said changes in the cabinet's composition are likely as Vladimir Putin and Dmitriy Medvedev swap jobs as prime minister and president following the 4 March presidential polls. Pavlovskiy said new appointments were to be expected at the Interior Ministry, and Defence Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov might go. Makarkin argued that it was not clear how much influence Medvedev would have as head of government, but he would not be "a nominal prime minister". The following is the text of a report by corporate-owned Russian news agency Interfax on 12 March, subheadings have been inserted editorially:

Moscow, 12 March: Reshuffles in the new Russian government will most likely affect security agencies, while ministerial portfolios in the social sector can go to candidates close to (outgoing President) Dmitriy Medvedev, political experts say.

Pavlovskiy

Political expert Gleb Pavlovskiy told Interfax: "You can expect changes in the leadership of the Federal Service for Control over the Trafficking of Narcotics, as well as the Interior Ministry. They are almost certain to happen in the Interior Ministry."

Current Defence Minister (Anatoliy) "Serdyukov is successful as army reformer, but he is unsuccessful as a front man of this reform. Moves regarding Serdyukov, if there are any, will have nothing to do with poor assessments of his work," Pavlovskiy said.

Speaking about the reshuffles in the security agencies, Pavlovskiy said: "(Prime Minister and President-elect Vladimir) Putin needs them politically because he is keen to stress that he is coming back as a new Putin."

"Therefore, both politically and symbolically it is important for him to reshuffle the leadership of the security agencies," Pavlovskiy said.

"There is a problem due to the fact that many potential candidates for ministerial jobs in areas not linked to security are downbeat on the prospect of working in Medvedev's government," Pavlovskiy said.

"There is some apprehension regarding Medvedev's cabinet today. Many of those who would not mind working in the government believe that his cabinet will be temporary and are wary of linking their political careers with it," Pavlovskiy noted.

In his view, a cabinet reshuffle would only be logical. "Medvedev insists on his own agenda and is hardly likely to give it up. But it is hardly possible to expect the old ministers to implement it," Pavlovskiy said.

Speaking about the idea of establishing the post of vice-president for Medvedev, which was proposed by the Institute of Contemporary Development, Pavlovskiy said it was unlikely to be implemented.

"This is a bad idea, and I don't think this post will appear in Russia. It did exist in the past, and it was created for a particular person (Gennadiy Yanayev was the first and only Soviet vice-president in 1990-91, and Aleksandr Rutskoy was Russia's only vice-president in 1991-93). Trying to recreate this experience would mean disrespecting institutions of power. I can't see Putin doing this," Pavlovskiy said.

Makarkin

The first vice-president of the Centre for Political Technologies, Aleksey Makarkin, told Interfax that the amount of influence Medvedev will have in the cabinet is not clear at the moment, but obviously he will not be a nominal prime minister.

"He is leaving the post of president to take up the prime minister's job, and therefore cannot be a nominal prime minister by definition. It is not possible fully to go back to nominal premiership in this situation. Medvedev will definitely remain a public political figure," Makarkin said.

However, he said it was difficult to say how influential Medvedev will be as prime minister. "At the moment, Medvedev has practically no proteges in the government. Several candidates who are close to Medvedev can receive ministerial portfolios after this is approved by the president. In this sense he will obtain more opportunities to influence the cabinet," he said.

"The important thing is not how many posts people from Medvedev's team will get, but what sort of posts they are," Makarkin said.

"There are reasons to believe that the current finance minister (Anton Siluanov) will stay on and (former Finance Minister Aleksey) Kudrin's policy will continue with some amendments. So Medvedev is hardly likely to take control of the Finance Ministry. In the current cabinet, (Deputy Prime Minister Igor) Sechin, being one of the most influential cabinet members, is in charge of fuel and energy. Whether he stays in the cabinet is key to understanding if Medvedev is going to receive any influence over that sector," Makarkin said.

Keywords: Russia, Government, Politics - Russia

 

Two Russian political experts, Gleb Pavlovskiy and Aleksey Makarkin, have said changes in the cabinet's composition are likely as Vladimir Putin and Dmitriy Medvedev swap jobs as prime minister and president following the 4 March presidential polls. Pavlovskiy said new appointments were to be expected at the Interior Ministry, and Defence Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov might go. Makarkin argued that it was not clear how much influence Medvedev would have as head of government, but he would not be "a nominal prime minister". The following is the text of a report by corporate-owned Russian news agency Interfax on 12 March, subheadings have been inserted editorially:

Moscow, 12 March: Reshuffles in the new Russian government will most likely affect security agencies, while ministerial portfolios in the social sector can go to candidates close to (outgoing President) Dmitriy Medvedev, political experts say.

Pavlovskiy

Political expert Gleb Pavlovskiy told Interfax: "You can expect changes in the leadership of the Federal Service for Control over the Trafficking of Narcotics, as well as the Interior Ministry. They are almost certain to happen in the Interior Ministry."

Current Defence Minister (Anatoliy) "Serdyukov is successful as army reformer, but he is unsuccessful as a front man of this reform. Moves regarding Serdyukov, if there are any, will have nothing to do with poor assessments of his work," Pavlovskiy said.

Speaking about the reshuffles in the security agencies, Pavlovskiy said: "(Prime Minister and President-elect Vladimir) Putin needs them politically because he is keen to stress that he is coming back as a new Putin."

"Therefore, both politically and symbolically it is important for him to reshuffle the leadership of the security agencies," Pavlovskiy said.

"There is a problem due to the fact that many potential candidates for ministerial jobs in areas not linked to security are downbeat on the prospect of working in Medvedev's government," Pavlovskiy said.

"There is some apprehension regarding Medvedev's cabinet today. Many of those who would not mind working in the government believe that his cabinet will be temporary and are wary of linking their political careers with it," Pavlovskiy noted.

In his view, a cabinet reshuffle would only be logical. "Medvedev insists on his own agenda and is hardly likely to give it up. But it is hardly possible to expect the old ministers to implement it," Pavlovskiy said.

Speaking about the idea of establishing the post of vice-president for Medvedev, which was proposed by the Institute of Contemporary Development, Pavlovskiy said it was unlikely to be implemented.

"This is a bad idea, and I don't think this post will appear in Russia. It did exist in the past, and it was created for a particular person (Gennadiy Yanayev was the first and only Soviet vice-president in 1990-91, and Aleksandr Rutskoy was Russia's only vice-president in 1991-93). Trying to recreate this experience would mean disrespecting institutions of power. I can't see Putin doing this," Pavlovskiy said.

Makarkin

The first vice-president of the Centre for Political Technologies, Aleksey Makarkin, told Interfax that the amount of influence Medvedev will have in the cabinet is not clear at the moment, but obviously he will not be a nominal prime minister.

"He is leaving the post of president to take up the prime minister's job, and therefore cannot be a nominal prime minister by definition. It is not possible fully to go back to nominal premiership in this situation. Medvedev will definitely remain a public political figure," Makarkin said.

However, he said it was difficult to say how influential Medvedev will be as prime minister. "At the moment, Medvedev has practically no proteges in the government. Several candidates who are close to Medvedev can receive ministerial portfolios after this is approved by the president. In this sense he will obtain more opportunities to influence the cabinet," he said.

"The important thing is not how many posts people from Medvedev's team will get, but what sort of posts they are," Makarkin said.

"There are reasons to believe that the current finance minister (Anton Siluanov) will stay on and (former Finance Minister Aleksey) Kudrin's policy will continue with some amendments. So Medvedev is hardly likely to take control of the Finance Ministry. In the current cabinet, (Deputy Prime Minister Igor) Sechin, being one of the most influential cabinet members, is in charge of fuel and energy. Whether he stays in the cabinet is key to understanding if Medvedev is going to receive any influence over that sector," Makarkin said.