August is traditionally considered "disaster month" in Russia ­ and disasters are certainly taking place already.

file photoFirst up is the trial of punk rockers Pussy Riot, which, as predicted, has turned into a circus. After performing a raucous "punk prayer" in Russia's main cathedral, the women face up to seven years in jail on charges of hooliganism "motivated by religious hatred." The trial is a sorry sight ­ a bizarre event for an ostensibly secular nation.

Second, we have prominent oppositionist Alexei Navalny being turned into a Khodorkovsky 2.0, with charges of embezzlement being brought against him this week.

Public sympathy in support of Mikhail Khodorkovsky has been growing in recent years, but I don't think this sympathy will come close to what will happen should Navalny be thrown in jail. Let's face it, Khodorkovsky is (was?) an oligarch. Oligarchs don't get massive support in Russia. Navalny may be different. Way different.

These days, I come across more and more radical, even frightening, leaflets in Moscow. Just the other morning, an old man slapped one onto the wall of a metro carriage. "STOP THE LEGAL NIHILISM," the headline spelled out in bold. I didn't get a chance to read further.

"Grandpa, don't vandalize the carriage!" a young woman next to me piped up.

"Shut up ­ I was an officer in Afghanistan! I do what I want!" He shot back.

The young woman did indeed shut up.

Noticing my gaze, the Officer in Afghanistan, if he had really been that, spoke to me next. "I fought them, I fought them when I still could," he said. "My wife didn't get her cancer treatment ­ she died in so much pain, so much pain. They want us all to die, to rot. Or to rot in jail. Like those girls. All they did was dance, the girls. That's what young girls do ­ they dance, they do stupid things. Why is there so much hate and no forgiveness? They want the girls to rot."

"Who are they?" I ventured feebly.

"They," he pointed upward, ostensibly to the surface of Moscow. "The elite. And their attack dogs. Will you pray for me? I need prayers."

"I'll pray for you," I said, and got off at my stop.

The girl also stepped out. She was pretty, dressed in standard officeworker attire, wearing a jacket I had recently coveted at Massimo Dutti. She had intelligent eyes. We began the walk to the escalator together.

"I didn't mean to hurt his feelings," she said. "It just hurts MY feelings when people put up leaflets, you know? It makes the city so unclean. I realize that his was a political leaflet. I just... I don't know what to think."

"I also don't know what to think," I said. It was the truth.

It's easy to laugh at our Officer, to write him off as mentally ill, possibly pretending to be a war vet, gluing leaflets to the walls of a metro carriage because he has nothing to do.

But there's the rub. There are too many people like him, alone and disenfranchised, not part of any community, quietly radicalizing in their rundown apartments.

Should a second wave of the financial crisis really hit Russia, it may be that more of these people will come out in the streets. They will not carry witty placards, like at Bolotnaya Ploshchad. They will be motivated by anger and despair.

It's not a future I want to think of. I want to work, write, raise my child in peace, sit by the water in the park at night and watch the autumn fog start rolling in as the hot Moscow summer cools down.

But August is "disaster month." And to use a quote that the nerds among you will surely understand, "Winter is coming."

Keywords: Russia, Government, Politics, Protests, Repression - Russian News - Russia - Johnson's Russia List

August is traditionally considered "disaster month" in Russia ­ and disasters are certainly taking place already.

file photoFirst up is the trial of punk rockers Pussy Riot, which, as predicted, has turned into a circus. After performing a raucous "punk prayer" in Russia's main cathedral, the women face up to seven years in jail on charges of hooliganism "motivated by religious hatred." The trial is a sorry sight ­ a bizarre event for an ostensibly secular nation.

Second, we have prominent oppositionist Alexei Navalny being turned into a Khodorkovsky 2.0, with charges of embezzlement being brought against him this week.

Public sympathy in support of Mikhail Khodorkovsky has been growing in recent years, but I don't think this sympathy will come close to what will happen should Navalny be thrown in jail. Let's face it, Khodorkovsky is (was?) an oligarch. Oligarchs don't get massive support in Russia. Navalny may be different. Way different.

These days, I come across more and more radical, even frightening, leaflets in Moscow. Just the other morning, an old man slapped one onto the wall of a metro carriage. "STOP THE LEGAL NIHILISM," the headline spelled out in bold. I didn't get a chance to read further.

"Grandpa, don't vandalize the carriage!" a young woman next to me piped up.

"Shut up ­ I was an officer in Afghanistan! I do what I want!" He shot back.

The young woman did indeed shut up.

Noticing my gaze, the Officer in Afghanistan, if he had really been that, spoke to me next. "I fought them, I fought them when I still could," he said. "My wife didn't get her cancer treatment ­ she died in so much pain, so much pain. They want us all to die, to rot. Or to rot in jail. Like those girls. All they did was dance, the girls. That's what young girls do ­ they dance, they do stupid things. Why is there so much hate and no forgiveness? They want the girls to rot."

"Who are they?" I ventured feebly.

"They," he pointed upward, ostensibly to the surface of Moscow. "The elite. And their attack dogs. Will you pray for me? I need prayers."

"I'll pray for you," I said, and got off at my stop.

The girl also stepped out. She was pretty, dressed in standard officeworker attire, wearing a jacket I had recently coveted at Massimo Dutti. She had intelligent eyes. We began the walk to the escalator together.

"I didn't mean to hurt his feelings," she said. "It just hurts MY feelings when people put up leaflets, you know? It makes the city so unclean. I realize that his was a political leaflet. I just... I don't know what to think."

"I also don't know what to think," I said. It was the truth.

It's easy to laugh at our Officer, to write him off as mentally ill, possibly pretending to be a war vet, gluing leaflets to the walls of a metro carriage because he has nothing to do.

But there's the rub. There are too many people like him, alone and disenfranchised, not part of any community, quietly radicalizing in their rundown apartments.

Should a second wave of the financial crisis really hit Russia, it may be that more of these people will come out in the streets. They will not carry witty placards, like at Bolotnaya Ploshchad. They will be motivated by anger and despair.

It's not a future I want to think of. I want to work, write, raise my child in peace, sit by the water in the park at night and watch the autumn fog start rolling in as the hot Moscow summer cools down.

But August is "disaster month." And to use a quote that the nerds among you will surely understand, "Winter is coming."