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Russia Profile
November 18, 2005
Russia Profile's Weekly Experts' Panel: "Operation Successor 2008"
By Peter Lavelle
Peter Lavelle: Is Dmitry Medvedev the one?
Donald Jensen, director of communication at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty:
Your succession scenario is certainly the most likely at the moment, but it is too early to tell how the process will turn out.
Jockeying for the presidential succession has been going on for some time. With these appointments, Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Ivanov certainly have to be considered the front-runners if, as, is likely, Vladimir Putin leaves office after his second term. In what resembles the succession process in 1999-2000 -- when then little known Prime Minister Vladimir Putin emerged from the pack after the Kremlin considered several other alternatives -- the Kremlin has trotted out these two men in the hope that one will catch fire among key constituencies in the Russian elite and show his competence at running the country.
There are important reasons why both Medvedev and Ivanov come from within the upper reaches of the Political Establishment. First, in a country with weak protection for property rights, both individuals would likely try t o preserve the system of state capitalism that has developed under Putin. Second, both men probably are seen by Putin as having the political skills to balance the demands of the often-contentious centers of power, including the Presidential Administration, the state bureaucracy, the security services, big business, and the regional governors. Third, enhancing the political fortunes of these two candidates now will test their political mettle and give them a head start in warding off any outsiders who might upset the rules of the game and pose a serious challenge to the elite's vested interests
Both Medvedev and Ivanov possess a mix of assets and liabilities that make their real chances of winning the top office unclear. Medvedev has received a critical portfolio. Considerable resources and positive media coverage will accompany it, as you say. But he has yet to play openly in the relatively more open field of national politics. His reputed spearheading of the Kremlin's stop-Yushchenko drive in Ukraine last fall calls his political judgment into question. Ivanov's main political assets have been his closeness to Putin and he was unsuccessful in making much progress in reforming the Russian military (many of whose top officers reportedly dislike him). Indeed, in assessing the presidential chances of each man, we should pay closer attention to the divisions within each of the so-called camps -- both the liberal statists and the misnamed siloviki. For example, both in terms of the major players at the top as well as their separate and competing networks, (the army, the MVD, the Ministry of Emergency Situations,) coalitions within the so-called siloviki continually form and divide -- sometimes across "clan" lines -- depending on the issue. We should also be wary of oversimplifying the relationship between big business and Kremlin factions. Although Dmitry Medvedev is chairman of the Gazprom Board, for example, Gazprom a huge firm some of whose elements reportedly have ties to the security structures.
Should Medvedev or Ivanov stumble in the months ahead, Putin could turn to other potential successors, such Vladimir Yakunin or Dmitry Kozak. Alternatively, Putin might decide to run for a third term. The national presidential election would then validate the elite's candidate rather than provide a meaningful choice to the electorate, whose continued high regard for Putin personally and disinterest in politics means that the decision on who will be the next president will be made at the top.