Moscow Times
November 16, 2005
Sobyanin Touted as Kremlin Wild Card
By Valeria Korchagina
Staff Writer
President Vladimir Putin's new chief of staff, Sergei Sobyanin, was being touted on Tuesday as a wild card who could help reduce tensions between powerful clans in the Kremlin -- and potentially get stalled reforms moving again.
But where Sobyanin, the 47-year-old Tyumen governor, will likely stand in the rivalry between the siloviki and the liberals within the presidential administration will become clear only over time, analysts said.
"I think the president wants to defuse these kind of tensions. ... The striking thing about this appointment is that he is not from St. Petersburg or Moscow, but a regional politician. ... I think he is designed to preserve neutrality," said Christopher Granville, chief strategist at United Financial Group.
Sobyanin, a native of the Khanty-Mansiisk autonomous district who was elected Tyumen governor in 2001, is seen as a competent manager with rather reserved manners and is well liked in his region, said Alexei Titkov, an analyst at the Institute for Regional Studies.
Tyumen had been abuzz with speculation that Sobyanin was well suited for a senior post in Moscow, with some even tipping him as a potential prosecutor general, Titkov said.
"One can easily come across remarks along the lines of, 'Our guy is respected in the capital,'" Titkov said. "He is one of very few regional leaders who really fits the bill for a top job in the federal government in terms of education and experience."
Sobyanin's political leanings, however, are a bit of a mystery.
"It's too early to say whether he's a liberal," said Peter Westin, chief economist at MDM Bank. "Looking at some of the speeches he made as Tyumen governor, he actually did promote liberal ideas, but the audiences he spoke to were mainly made up of people from the business community."
Sobyanin has promoted progressive goals such as the integration of Russia into the global economy, Westin said. "So at least he has a touch of liberalism in him," he said.
On the other hand, liberal parties in Tyumen have criticized Sobyanin over his tough stance toward NGOs and the media, Titkov said.
This, however, is something he is unlikely to be criticized for too much in the Kremlin.
In 1993, Sobyanin was appointed the deputy head of the Khanty-Mansiisk autonomous district, and in 1994 he became the chairman of the region's legislature. In 1996, he was appointed to the Federation Council, where he was an expert on constitutional law.
He is also a member of United Russia's Supreme Council.
A key factor in Sobyanin's background could be his experience with the oil and gas industry -- the main economic sector in both the Tyumen and Khanty-Mansiisk regions.
Analysts said Sobyanin had good connections with an array of business groups with interests in oil and gas, including Alfa Group, which owns 50 percent of TNK-BP; LUKoil; Surgutneftegaz; and Sibneft, which was bought by Gazprom last month.
But it was not clear whether any of these companies would have serious or long-lasting influence over Sobyanin, if at all.
"Things in Russian politics move quickly," UFG's Granville said, adding that whatever connections Sobyanin might have had with oil companies as Tyumen governor, they were unlikely to have any effect on his decisions as Kremlin chief of staff.
However, Sobyanin's knowledge of oil and gas could come in handy in his new role, said Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected analyst.
"I would expect some serious political decisions to be made related to oil and gas, although it is quite hard to say what they would be," Markov said.
Markov agreed that Putin would likely see Sobyanin as someone who could ease tensions within the presidential administration.
The battles within the Kremlin for control over decision-making and the often contradictory goals pursued by different factions have been seen as delaying a number of key political and economic decisions.
The same conflicts have been blamed as being at the root of the Kremlin's onslaught on Yukos, which led to the oil firm's demise and the jailing of its founder Mikhail Khodorkovsky, and are seen by some as hurting the country's international image and investment climate.
Markov said that Putin could have picked Sobyanin in an effort to revitalize his team, which is largely made up of people who came with him from St. Petersburg, or from the security services, or belong to the old Moscow elite.
Sobyanin, after all, is a purely regional leader, Markov said.
"So he could be someone to put between the liberals and those who came from the security services," Markov said.
Sobyanin's abilities as a peacemaker -- and where his political sympathies lie -- will only be revealed by his actions over the coming weeks and months, analysts said.
"If he cares more to be a yes man, then the question is whom he'll be saying 'yes' to," Westin said.
"So if the siloviki are going to push Sobyanin to say 'yes' to them, the issue will be what kind of signals Putin will give him. This will be a decisive factor in whether siloviki are increasing their power," Westin said.
He added that the information he had about Sobyanin suggested that he was no stranger to liberal ideas.
Not all analysts, however, were optimistic about the implications for the political climate.
Roland Nash, chief strategist at Renaissance Capital investment bank, said moving Dmitry Medvedev from his Kremlin post to that of first deputy prime minister could be a negative step, given that he has been seen as a member of the liberal wing in the administration.
"At the very least, we've had this balance for a long time. It's been unbalanced by the removal of Medvedev, so that would suggest that [Putin's deputy chief of staff Igor] Sechin has gained in influence, relatively speaking," Nash said.